1. Scenario 1: sticking to the current reform agenda (New start for Europe 2014 and Bratislava Declaration)
1.1. Focus
1.1.1. Jobs
1.1.2. Economic Growth
1.1.3. Investment(mainly digital, transport and energy infrastructure) Digital revolution: Smart Cities
1.2. How?
1.2.1. improving the functioning of the single currency in order to drive growth and prevent shocks.
1.2.2. Better cooperation to fight terrorism. Especially the willingness of national authorities to share intelligence.
1.2.3. More unity in foreign policy
1.3. Effects
1.3.1. Single market and trade: Single market is strengthened by progressive trade agreements
1.3.2. Economic & Monetary Union: function of the euro area is improved
1.3.3. Schengen, migration & security: - Cooperation in the management of external borders stepped up gradually - progress towards a common asylum system -improved coordination on security matters
1.3.4. Foreign policy & defence: - Progress is made on speaking with one voice on foreign affairs - closer defence cooperation
1.3.5. Capacity to deliver: capacity to deliver does not always match expectations
2. Scenario 2: Sole focus on the single market
2.1. Focus
2.1.1. Functioning of the single market/Economic Growth
2.2. How?
2.2.1. Reducing regulation at EU level
2.3. Effects
2.3.1. Single market & trade: - Single market for goods and capital strengthened - standards continue to differ - free movement of people and services not fully guaranteed
2.3.2. Economic & Monetary Union: Cooperation is limited
2.3.3. Schengen, migration & security: - No single migration or asylum policy - further coordination on security dealt with bilaterally - internal border controls are more systematic
2.3.4. EU budget: Refocused to finance essential functions needed for the single market
2.4. Capacity to deliver: - Decision-making may be easier to understand but capacity to act collectively is limited - issues of common concern often need to be solved bilaterally
2.5. Foreign policy & defence: - Some foreign policy issues are increasingly dealt with bilaterally - defence cooperation remains as it is today
3. Scenario 5: The European Union decides to do much more together across ALL areas
3.1. Focus
3.1.1. As a result, cooperation between all Member States goes further than ever before in all domains. This creates UNITY.
3.1.2. The euro area is strengthened with the clear understanding that whatever is beneficial for countries sharing the common currency is also beneficial for all.
3.1.3. Decisions are agreed faster at European level and are rapidly enforced.
3.2. How?
3.2.1. On the international scene, Europe speaks and acts as one in trade and is represented by one seat in most international fora. The European Parliament has the final say on international trade agreements.
3.2.2. Defence and security are prioritised. In full complementarity with NATO, a European Defence Union is created. Cooperation in security matters is routine.
3.2.3. The EU27 continues to lead the global fight against climate change and strengthens its role as the world’s largest humanitarian and development aid donor.
3.2.4. The EU’s broad-ranging foreign policy leads it to reinforce its joint approach on migration.
3.2.5. Within the EU27, there is a strong focus and ambition to complete the single market in the field of energy, digital and services
3.2.6. Within the euro area, but also for those Member States wishing to join, there is much greater coordination on fiscal, social and taxation matters, as well as European supervision of financial services.
3.3. Effects
3.3.1. Single market & trade: Single market strengthened through harmonisation of standards and stronger enforcement; trade exclusively dealt with at EU level
3.3.2. Economic & Monetary Union:Economic, financial and fiscal Union is achieved as envisioned in the report of the Five Presidents of june 2015
3.3.3. Schengen,migration & security: As in Scenario 4 cooperation on border management, asylum policies and counterterrorism matters are systematic
3.3.4. Foreign policy & defence: As in Scenario 4, the EU speaks with one voice on all foreign policy issues; a European Defence Union is created
3.3.5. EU budget: Significantly modernised and increased, backed up by own resources; a euro area fiscal stabilisation function is operational
3.3.6. Capacity to deliver: Decision-making is faster and enforcement is stronger across the board; questions of accountability arise for some who feel that the EU has taken too much power away from the Member States.
4. Scenario 3: coalitions of the willing
4.1. Focus
4.1.1. new groups of Member States agree on specific legal and budgetary arrangements to deepen their cooperation in chosen domains.
4.1.1.1. This might create conflicts between the different member states; possibility of EXITS
4.2. How?
4.2.1. A group of Member States decides to cooperate much closer on defence matters
4.2.2. Several countries move ahead in security and justice matters. They exchange all information in the fight against organised crime and terrorism related activities
4.2.3. Greater harmonisation of tax rules and rates reduces compliance costs and limits tax evasion
4.2.4. Progress is made at 27 to strengthen the single market and reinforce its four freedoms. Relations with third countries, including trade, remain managed at EU level on behalf of all Member States
4.2.5. Industrial cooperation is strengthened in a number of cutting edge technologies, products and services, and rules on their usage are developed collectively.
4.3. Effects
4.3.1. Single market & trade: Single market is strengthened just like in Scenario 1
4.3.2. Economic & Monetary Union: Not a big difference with scenario 1, except for the fact that a few member states might deepen their cooperation in areas such as taxation and social standards
4.3.3. Schengen, migration & security: not a big difference with Scenario 1 except for the fact that a few member states might deepen their cooperation on security and justice matters
4.3.4. Foreign policy & defence: not a big difference with Scenario 1 except for the fact that a few member states might deepen their cooperation on defence, focusing on military coordination and joint equipment
4.3.5. EU budget: As in Scenario 1 but additional budgets are made available by some Member States for the areas where they decide to do more
4.3.6. Capacity to deliver: some groups achieve more together
5. Scenario 4: EU focuses on priorities
5.1. Focus
5.1.1. decides to focus its attention and limited resources on a reduced number of areas. Will only work together when necessary.
5.1.2. Elsewhere, the EU27 stops acting or does less.
5.2. How?
5.2.1. The EU27 steps up its work in fields such as innovation, trade, security, migration, the management of borders and defence. It develops new rules and enforcement tools to deepen the single market in key new areas. It focuses on excellence in R&D and invests in new EU-wide projects to support decarbonisation and digitisation.
5.3. Effects
5.3.1. Single market & trade: Common standards set to a minimum but enforcement is strengthened in areas regulated at EU level; trade exclusively dealt with at EU level
5.3.2. Economic & Monetary Union: Several steps are taken to consolidate the euro area and ensure its stability; the EU27 does less in some parts of employment and social policy
5.3.3. Schengen, migration & security:Cooperation on border management, asylum policies and counterterrorism matters are systematic
5.3.4. Foreign policy & defence: The EU speaks with one voice on all foreign policy issues; a European Defence Union is created
5.3.5. EU Budget: Significantly redesigned to fit the new priorities agreed at the level of the EU27
5.3.6. Capacity to deliver: Initial agreement on tasks to prioritise or give up is challenging; once in place, decision-making may be easier to understand; the EU acts quicker and more decisively where it has a greater role