The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Developed vs. Developing Countries

1. Alina Zaidi, Jadyn Davidson, Olivia Belcher, Mirae Choe

2. Developed Countries

2.1. United States

2.1.1. Future Effects of Climate Change in the US

2.1.1.1. Key crops, such as the cereal grains, rice and wheat, are likely to decrease yields and decrease in nutrient density.

2.1.1.1.1. These cereal grains are extensively treated with chemicals and pesticides, which might not have as much effect if the climate were to drastically change.

2.1.1.2. Organisms other than crops, such as pests, diseases, and weeds, will benefit from a warmer climate.

2.1.1.3. Extreme weather patterns and changes will damage yields.

2.1.1.3.1. Currently, much of California is experiencing droughts and wildfires due to unprecedented extreme temperatures.

2.1.2. Past Effects of Climate Change in the US

2.1.2.1. The last major change in climate was the Mini Ice Age. At the conclusion of this event, Native Americans were able to begin intensive subsistence agriculture.

2.1.2.1.1. Famous interaction between the Native Americans and the English settlers, who shared a Thanksgiving feast together.

2.1.2.1.2. The most common crops grown at that time included maize and corn.

2.1.2.1.3. Climate change wasn't given such a negative light back then, as it enabled the indigenous people of North America to cultivate important grains.

2.1.3. Current Agricultural Techniques

2.1.3.1. The US practices all of the agricultural activities characteristic of a developed country.

2.1.3.1.1. Most of the US is mixed crop and livestock and livestock ranching

2.1.3.1.2. Others besides mixed crop and livestock and livestock ranching include diary farming, grain, commercial gardening, and Mediterranean agriculture.

2.1.3.2. In large farms, it is common to use heavy machinery and even AI to cut down on human labor. As a result, only a handful of people are needed to maintain land area that could be hundreds of hectares.

2.1.3.2.1. Current projections have predicted that by 2023, the market for smart farms will reach $11.93 billion.

2.1.3.3. Many farms are incorporated into large agribusinesses, or are provided with government subsidies.

2.1.3.3.1. 80% of American farmland is owned by large agriculture corporations, pushing many local and family farmers out of business.

2.1.4. Changes and Potential Solutions

2.1.4.1. In the US, honeybees are crucial to the production of several hundreds of species of crops.

2.1.4.1.1. Raising awareness of bee populations and how they help agriculture could preserve honeybees as well as crops that are used for human consumption.

2.1.4.2. Currently, several organizations are raising awareness of sustainable agriculture. The public is also becoming more knowledgeable about "clean eating" and reducing their carbon footprint. Consumers have awareness and are more likely to purchase produce and crops that have a sustainable background.

2.1.4.2.1. Several movements, such as the Non-GMO Project and the Organic Food Movement have encouraged growers to supply these types of crops to the public.

2.1.4.3. Recent studies have shown that US farms have lost a significant amount of diversity in the crops they cultivate.

2.1.4.3.1. These crops have become monocultures, which are very vulnerable to a single disease or pest, which could wipe the whole species of crops out. Improving diversity will ensure that the added pressures of climate change will not destroy some species of crops.

2.2. Italy

2.2.1. Agriculture

2.2.1.1. Current Agricultural Techniques

2.2.1.1.1. Crops grown in Italy include rice, maize, wheat, olives, and grapes.

2.2.1.1.2. Italy is often seen as being full of small farms, but in truth, it is just as full of commercial agriculture as other developed countries.

2.2.2. Climate Change

2.2.2.1. Past effects of climate change

2.2.2.1.1. During 2019, Italy reported a 57% decrease in its olive harvests; being blamed on extreme weather, this is the worst harvest of the last quarter century

2.2.2.2. Continuing effects of climate change

2.2.2.2.1. Venice

2.2.2.3. Predicted effects of climate change

2.2.2.3.1. Melting Glaciers

2.2.2.3.2. Food

2.2.3. Changes and Solutions

2.2.3.1. Smaller farms in Italy have had to diversify the crops they grow to compete with the ever growing capitalist systems of commercial agriculture and agribusiness

2.2.3.1.1. However, this is not only helpful for small farms' profit, biodiversity is one of the most important things for all farms.

2.2.3.2. As for Venice, a project to protect the city from rising tides has been underway since 2003, but has been hit by soaring costs, scandals, and delays.

2.2.3.2.1. What has been dubbed, the Mose Project: a series of floodgates and barriers, was successfully tested for the first time in 2013.

2.2.3.3. Unlike almost every other country in the Eurozone, Italy has no requirements for agricultural sustainability or sustainability in general.

3. Developing Countries

3.1. Sub-Saharan Africa

3.1.1. Future Effects of Climate Change

3.1.1.1. Sub-Saharan Africa is extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to its inability and lack of capacity to adapt to rising issues.

3.1.1.2. With the changes in the ice caps, there could either be a result in in extreme flooding or devastating droughts which would in term wipe out any crop yield left.

3.1.1.2.1. Regardless of the result, the community will be greatly effected through great risk of famine.

3.1.1.2.2. Rainfall change is a large threat, specifically to livestock, because it is uncontrollable, difficult to predict in developing areas because of poor research infrastructure, and low productivity.

3.1.1.3. With different climate changes comes a difference in the way diseases travel and spread.

3.1.1.3.1. Diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa are based off climate; therefore, extreme changes in climate create unpredictable disease trends putting the health of the area in greater danger.

3.1.1.3.2. Climate change also will activate new bacterias and viruses to grow and spread for example through avian migration resulting in large health deficits.

3.1.1.4. The predicted rise in temperature across the world will ultimately lead to inhabitable areas creating a need for migration. This could lead to climate associated social conflicts.

3.1.1.4.1. In the future, people will be forced to move from rural to urban areas which results in fighting over land because of intolerance to refugees.

3.1.2. Past Effects of Climate Change

3.1.2.1. Holocene Climatic Optimum -- 9,000-5,000 years BP: a lot more rainfall and 4 degrees hotter than it is tdoay

3.1.2.1.1. The Sahara dessert was much wetter and more fertile but has since dried up

3.1.2.1.2. Different animals were adapted to the climate such as crocodiles, hippopotamus, armadillos and more that cannot survive in current climates

3.1.2.1.3. Evidence of ruins of irrigation systems that are obviously no longer there today

3.1.2.2. Mini Ice Age -- came and went from 800-1500 AD when the atmosphere became very cold and dry

3.1.2.2.1. Large decline in precipitation and water which left the area very dry and much like it's condition today

3.1.2.2.2. Created famine in area due to inability to grow crops

3.1.2.3. 1950-1990 AD: Severe drought as a result of ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns when ocean currents interact with the atmosphere on a larger scale

3.1.3. Current Agricultural Techniques

3.1.3.1. About 65% of Sub-Saharan Africa relies on subsistence agriculture, farming that provides goods for the farm family without an expected surplus.

3.1.3.2. The typical farmer is a woman.

3.1.3.2.1. majority use no chemical fertilizers or pesticides due to use of animal manure

3.1.3.2.2. typically no irrigation -- only 4%

3.1.3.2.3. typically no high-yield seeds

3.1.3.2.4. no access to veterinary medicine for livestock

3.1.3.3. Cereal yields, as in the seeds that come from grasses such as millet, sorghum, and maize, have been on the decline as population is on a rapid increase.

3.1.3.3.1. While these crops are easily accessible and come at inexpensive prices, they result in undernourishment.

3.1.3.3.2. A primary consumption of cereal grain leads to low caloric intake because of lack of protein intake that is unsustainable for the population.

3.1.4. Changes and Potential Solutions

3.1.4.1. New investment strategies need to be implemented on a wide scale.

3.1.4.1.1. Irrigation systems for more easily accessible transport of fresh water to the fields

3.1.4.1.2. Funding for equipment to increase efficiency and production

3.1.4.1.3. Education to ensure that people know how to properly farm as well as take care of themselves

3.1.4.1.4. Chemical fertilizers to increase nutrients in soil for more beneficial crop growth

3.1.4.2. Implement greater research -- countries tend to not focus on doing research for areas that they will not economically benefit from. Countries need to aim towards helping these areas rather than ignoring them.

3.1.4.2.1. Need to do research on what is predicted to happen with changes in rainfall.

3.1.4.2.2. Need to do research on how to implement cultural changes

3.2. Latin America

3.2.1. Future Effects of Climate Change

3.2.1.1. Changes in the soil

3.2.1.1.1. Crop loss, soil erosion, increased pests, and plant diseases

3.2.1.2. Decreased yield and lowered incomes because of higher temperatures and erratic rainfall

3.2.1.2.1. According to a World Bank study, total revenue in Latin America's agriculture sector will decrease by between 12%-50% by 2100

3.2.1.3. Extremely high food prices

3.2.1.3.1. The UN attributes this as a result of poor weather, higher demand, smaller growth in productivity, and use of crops as biofuels instead of food

3.2.2. Past Effects of Climate Change

3.2.2.1. Tropical deforestation greatly affected Latin America since more than 40% of Latin America was covered with forests

3.2.2.1.1. Over the past 30 years, 15% of the Amazon rainforest has been destroyed.

3.2.2.2. Animal extinction

3.2.2.2.1. The Caribbean monk seal went extinct in 1952

3.2.2.3. Melting of the Andean glaciers

3.2.2.3.1. Since the 1970s, Peru's glaciers have lost 40% of their surface area because of global warming

3.2.2.4. Rising sea levels, more tropical storms, and erratic rainfall

3.2.2.4.1. Increased risk of droughts

3.2.2.4.2. Threatens the Latin American population since a majority of them live on the coast

3.2.2.5. El Nino

3.2.2.5.1. Series of sporadically occurring climate changes

3.2.3. Current Agricultural Techniques

3.2.3.1. The majority of farmers practice subsistence agriculture, which is where farmers grow crops only to feed their families.

3.2.3.1.1. Some crops typically grown in Latin America countries are avocado, pineapple, papaya, coffee, and cacao.

3.2.3.1.2. Countries in Latin America with high population densities practice more intensive subsistence agriculture, while countries with low population densities practice shifting cultivation, in which fields are cleared and utilized for up to 20 years and then left fallow for more than 20 years, which gives the forest time to grow back.

3.2.3.2. Increased demand to switch to commercial agriculture and produce more food

3.2.3.2.1. Leaving land fallow for shorter periods of time

3.2.3.2.2. Adopting new farming methods

3.2.3.2.3. Higher yield seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, machinery

3.2.3.3. Agriculture is mostly practiced by men. Only 1/4 of farmers are women.

3.2.4. Changes and Potential Solutions

3.2.4.1. Promoting biodiversity on individual farms

3.2.4.1.1. Lessen the risk of extinction that climate change brings for some species since there would be a variety in many areas

3.2.4.2. 3 field system: an arable piece of land is divided into 3 sections. One field is planted in fall with winter wheat or rye. The second field grows all the other crops. The third is left fallow, or unplanted.

3.2.4.2.1. It allows farmers to plant more crops, which increases production.

3.2.4.2.2. Nitrogen levels stay constant, which fertilizes the soil

3.2.4.2.3. The fallow field is soon overgrown with weeds, which is used to feed cattle

3.2.4.3. Promote local eating

3.2.4.3.1. Local eating means crops would be shipped in from nearby, which means they are fresher and there is a less chance they have pesticides.

3.2.4.4. Sensitive land management

3.2.4.5. Limited use of chemicals

3.2.4.5.1. Farmers should combine herbicide banding, which applies chemicals in narrow bands over crop rows, with cultivating to limit expenses but also practice sustainable agriculture