1. PLAN RISK MGT
1.1. Inputs
1.1.1. Proj Charter / PMP /Prj Docs (SH Regis) / EEF / OPA
1.2. T&T
1.2.1. Expert J, / Data Analy (S H analysis) / Meeting (kick off)
1.3. Output
1.3.1. Risk Mgt Plan
1.3.1.1. How risk management activities will be structured and performed
1.3.1.1.1. Risk Strategy
1.3.1.1.2. Methodology
1.3.1.1.3. Roles n responsibility
1.3.1.1.4. Funding
1.3.1.1.5. Timing (Project Life cycle)
1.3.1.1.6. Risk Categories
1.3.1.2. determining risk methodology +risk strategy
2. IDENTIFY RISK
2.1. Identify + documentation of existing individual project risks and the sources of overall project risk
2.1.1. throughout the project / Iterative
2.1.2. project manager, project team members, project risk specialist (if assigned), customers, subject matter experts from outside the project team, end users, other project managers, operations managers, stakeholders, and risk management experts within the organization.
2.1.3. Nominate Risk Owners
2.2. Inputs
2.2.1. PM Pln - Requrmt. ; Schedule; Cost mgt ; Resource : risk ; scope+schedule+cost baseline ; /Pro. Docs (SH Regis) / Agreements / EEF / OPA
2.2.2. Project Doc
2.2.2.1. SH Reg / Risk Report / Issue Log / Requit. Doc / Assumpt Log
2.2.3. Agreements
2.2.4. Procurement doc
2.2.4.1. seller performance reports, approved change requests and information on inspections.
2.3. T&T
2.3.1. Expert J, / Data Analy (S H analysis) / Meeting (kick off)
2.3.2. Data Analy
2.3.2.1. Brainstorming (a comprehensive list of individual project risks a)
2.3.2.2. Chk list
2.3.2.2.1. similar completed projects,
2.3.2.2.2. list of items, actions, or points /Reminder
2.3.2.3. Interview
2.3.2.3.1. experienced project participants, stakeholders, and subject matter experts ; Trust / Encourage
2.3.2.4. Root Cause Analyses
2.3.2.4.1. causes -lead to a problem, and develop preventive action.
2.3.2.5. SWOT analys,
2.3.3. Interpersonal & team skills
2.3.3.1. Facilitation
2.3.4. Prompt list
2.3.4.1. Prompt List
2.3.4.1.1. predetermined list of risk categories that might give rise to individual project risk
2.3.4.1.2. lowest level of the risk breakdown structure
2.3.4.1.3. PESTLE - political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental)
2.3.4.1.4. TECOP
2.3.4.1.5. VUCA
2.3.5. Meeting / risk workshop
2.3.6. Agreements
2.3.6.1. milestone dates, contract type, acceptance criteria, and awards and penalties
2.3.7. Interview
2.3.7.1. experienced project participants, stakeholders, and subject matter experts
2.4. Output
2.4.1. Risk Register
2.4.1.1. Identified individual project risks
2.4.1.2. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis, Plan Risk Responses, Implement Risk Responses, and Monitor Risks
2.4.1.3. identified risks, Potential risk owner and List of potential risk responses
2.4.1.4. short risk title, risk category and status, risk triggers, WBS reference and timing information
2.4.2. Risk Report
2.4.2.1. explains the overall project risks and provides summaries about the individual project risks
2.4.2.2. overall project risk, together with summary information on identified individual project risks
2.4.3. Assumption Log
3. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
3.1. prioritizing individual project risks for further analysis
3.2. Probability + impact analysis
3.2.1. Probability & impact matrix
3.3. Subjective analysis/quality assesment
3.4. Focus on high priority risk
3.5. Agile - before start of every iteration
3.6. foundation for Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
3.7. T& T
3.7.1. Expert Judg.
3.7.2. Data Gathering
3.7.3. Data Analysis
3.7.3.1. Risk data quality assessment
3.7.3.1.1. accurate and reliable
3.7.3.2. Risk probability and impact assessment
3.7.3.2.1. likelihood that a specific risk will occur.
3.7.3.3. Assessment of other risk parameters
3.7.3.3.1. Urgency -speed with which you would have to do something about the risk/ which a response to the risk is to be implemented - short period -.> high risk
3.7.3.3.2. :Proximity -
3.7.3.3.3. Manageability - how easily handle the impact
3.7.3.3.4. Controllability -degree to control d impact
3.7.3.3.5. Detectability :
3.7.3.3.6. Connectivity :Higher -.> higher risk
3.7.3.3.7. Strategic impact -
3.7.3.3.8. Propinquity - very close to the heart of someone
3.7.3.3.9. Dormancy - How soon do we feel
3.7.4. Interpersonal & Team skill
3.7.4.1. Facilitation
3.7.4.1.1. Skilled facilitator -
3.7.5. Risk Categorisation
3.7.5.1. RBS
3.7.5.1.1. Grouping risks into categories
3.7.6. Data representation
3.7.6.1. Probability and impact matrix
3.7.6.2. Hierarchical charts.
3.8. OUTPUT
3.8.1. Project documents update
3.8.1.1. Assumption log/issue log/risk register/ risk report
3.9. Risk Categorization
3.9.1. Known Known
3.9.1.1. Know for sure
3.9.2. Known Unknown
3.9.2.1. Bad weather
3.9.3. Unknown known
3.9.4. Unknown Known
3.9.4.1. Surprise
4. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
4.1. quantifies overall project risk exposure
4.2. not required for every project,
4.3. additional quantitative risk information
4.4. T&T
4.4.1. Simulation (Montecarlo analysis)
4.4.1.1. When significant uncertainty -need to make an estimate/forecast /decision where there is
4.4.1.1.1. Computer aid analysis
4.4.2. Sensitivity Analysis (Tornado diagram)
4.4.2.1. to determine which individual project risks or other sources of uncertainty - most potential impact
4.4.2.1.1. which risks have the most potential impact on the project.
4.4.2.1.2. The longer the bar, High sensitive the risk.
4.4.2.1.3. largest impact on the top /least impact on the bottom.
4.4.3. Decision Tree analysis
4.4.3.1. to support selection of the best of several alternative
4.4.4. Influence diagram
4.4.4.1. check the dependencies of tasks on each other
4.4.5. EMV= I * P
4.4.5.1. to quantify risks and calculate the contingency reserve.
4.4.5.2. The sum of the EMV of all events is the contingency reserve.
5. Plan Risk Response
5.1. how to make a proper response to a risk
5.1.1. minimize individual threats, /maximize individual opportunities/ reduce overall project risk exposure
5.1.2. appropriate
5.1.3. cost-effective
5.1.4. realistic
5.1.5. agreed upon by all parties involved,
5.1.6. owned by a responsible person
5.2. INPUTS
5.2.1. PM Pln
5.2.1.1. Resource management plan
5.2.1.1.1. how resources allocated to agreed-upon risk responses
5.2.1.2. Risk management plan
5.2.1.2.1. Risk management roles and responsibilities
5.2.1.2.2. risk thresholds
5.2.1.2.3. Cost baseline
5.2.2. Project documents
5.2.2.1. Lessons learned register
5.2.2.1.1. effective risk responses used
5.2.2.1.2. reviewed to determine if similar responses
5.2.2.2. Project schedule
5.2.2.2.1. how agreed-upon risk responses will be scheduled alongside other project activities.
5.2.2.3. Project team assignments
5.2.2.3.1. resources that can be allocated to agreed-upon risk responses
5.2.2.4. Resource calendars.
5.2.2.4.1. resources availability- to be allocated to agreed-upon risk responses
5.2.2.5. Risk register
5.2.2.5.1. identified and prioritized,-individual risk
5.2.2.5.2. which risk responses are required
5.2.2.5.3. nominated risk owner for each risk
5.2.2.6. Risk report.
5.2.2.6.1. current level of overall risk exposure
5.2.2.6.2. Prioritized individual project risks
5.2.2.7. Stakeholder register.
5.2.2.7.1. potential owners for risk responses.
5.3. T&T
5.3.1. STRATEGIES
5.3.1.1. OPPORTUNITIES
5.3.1.1.1. Exploite
5.3.1.1.2. Enhance
5.3.1.1.3. Share
5.3.1.1.4. Accept
5.3.1.2. THREATS
5.3.1.2.1. Avoid
5.3.1.2.2. Mitigate.
5.3.1.2.3. Transfer
5.3.1.2.4. Escalate (Programme/portfolio/other)
5.3.1.2.5. Accept
5.4. OUTPUT
5.4.1. Change request
5.4.1.1. cost and schedule baselines or other components of the project management plan
5.4.2. PMPln updates
5.4.3. Project Doc updates
6. Implement Risk Response
7. Monitor Risk
7.1. tracking identified risks, identifying and analyzing new risks, and evaluating risk process
7.2. INPUTS
7.2.1. PMPln
7.2.2. Proj Docs
7.2.3. WPI
7.2.3.1. project status
7.2.4. WPR
7.3. T&R
7.3.1. Audits
7.3.2. Meetings
7.4. OUTPUT
7.4.1. WPI
7.4.2. Change Request
7.4.3. PMPln Updates
7.4.4. OPA s update
8. What is Risk
8.1. Uncertain event
8.2. Positive / Negative impact
8.2.1. Positive Impact
8.2.1.1. Oppotunitiy
8.2.2. Negative impact
8.2.2.1. Threat
8.3. Even Based Risk
8.3.1. a key seller may go out / Cus may change the requirement
8.4. Non event based Risk
8.4.1. Variability Risk
8.4.1.1. Uncertainty exists - planned event or activity or decision.
8.4.1.1.1. the number of errors found during testing may be higher or lower than expected
8.4.1.1.2. unseasonal weather conditions
8.4.1.2. addressed using Monte Carlo analysis
8.4.1.2.1. productivity may be above or below target,
8.4.2. Ambiguity Risk
8.4.2.1. Uncertainty exists -what might happen in the future
8.4.2.1.1. future developments in regulatory frameworks
8.4.2.1.2. inherent systemic complexity in the project
8.4.3. Emergent Risk
8.4.3.1. addressed through incremental development, prototyping, or simulation
8.4.3.2. risks that can only be recognized after they have occurred.
8.4.3.2.1. Project resilience
8.4.3.3. Integrated Risl Mgnt
8.4.3.3.1. how well an organization manages its unique set of risks.
9. KEY CONCEOTS
9.1. Individual Pr.Risk
9.1.1. effect on one or more project objectives.
9.2. Overall Pr. Risk
9.2.1. effect of uncertainty on the project as a whole
9.3. Non event Risk
9.4. Project Resilience
9.5. Integrated Risk Mgt
9.6. S/H Risk appetite
9.7. Risk Probability & Impact Matrix
9.7.1. numeric values P * I
9.7.2. which allows the relative priority of individual risks to be evaluated within each priority level
9.7.3. What does /low/moderate/high risk mean in terms of impacts on project?
9.8. SWOT Analysis
9.9. Prompt List
9.9.1. predetermined list of risk categories that might give rise to individual project risk
9.9.2. lowest level of the risk breakdown structure
9.9.3. PESTLE - political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental)
9.9.4. TECOP
9.10. Risk Register
9.11. Risk Report
9.12. Simulation
9.13. Sensitivity Analysis
9.14. Decision Tree Analysis
9.15. Influence Diagram
9.16. (specified range of acceptable results)
9.17. Risk Appetite
9.17.1. Degree of uncertainty willing to take
9.18. Risk Tolerance
9.19. Risk Threshold
9.19.1. The level of risk exposure above which risks are addressed
9.19.2. Below Risk thre- Org will accept d risk
9.19.3. Above R/Thre - Org will not tolerate d risk
9.20. Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS)
9.20.1. A hierarchical representation of potential sources of risks.
10. Management Aim
10.1. Positive Risk /Opportunities - Enhance /Exploite
10.2. Negative Risk / Threat - Mitigate / Avoid
10.3. To keep project risk exposure within an acceptable range
10.4. reducing drivers of negative variation,
10.5. promoting drivers of positive variation
10.6. maximizing the probability of achieving overall project objectives
10.7. should be conducted iteratively
10.8. the project stays on track and emergent risks are addressed.
11. Risk Tailoring
11.1. Project size
11.2. Project complexity
11.2.1. high levels of innovation, new technology, commercial arrangements, interfaces, or external dependencies that increase project complexity
11.3. Project importance
11.4. Development approach.
11.4.1. waterfall project
11.4.1.1. sequentially and iteratively
11.4.2. agile
11.4.2.1. start of each iteration (Identify /analyze/ manage
11.4.2.2. during execution
11.4.2.3. adaptive approaches
12. Risk Factors
12.1. Probability
12.1.1. % risk may occur
12.2. Impact
12.2.1. Range of possible outcome
12.3. Timing
12.4. Frequesncy
12.4.1. How often