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Probability by Mind Map: Probability
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Probability

The proportion of times something would occur over the long run.

Random Circumstance

outcome not determined until we see it

Outcome already determined but our knowledge is uncertain

Relative Frequency Interpretation

Make assumption about Physical world

Make direct observation of how often something happens over many, many repetitions of the situation.

Number between 0 and 1

The possible outcome of a random circumstance

Meets 1st condition for valid probablity

Personal Probability (subjective)

Degree an individual believes it will happen

Coherent (no contradiction)

Uses percentages based on proportions of individuals

Definitions

Sample Space

Simple Event

Event

Events

Complementary ("Opposite")

mutually exclusive (disjoint)

Independent

Dependent

Conditional Probablity

Rules for Finding Probabilities

Rule 1 (Not the event)

Rule 2 (Addition)

Rule 3 (Multiplication)

Rule 4 (Conditional Probability)

Philosophical Issue

Outcome has been determined but is still unknown

Confidence vs Probability

Strategies

Bayes Rule

Two-way Tables: Hypothetical 100,000

Tree Diagram