ESKOM HQ Meeting David Lipschitz and Senior Management Tuesday 30 07 20 19 Mind map by David Lips...

1. Question & Points

1.1. What and who is electricity for?

1.1.1. Electrical Needs

1.1.1.1. Security of supply

1.1.1.2. Increasing supply

1.1.1.3. Clean supply

1.1.1.4. Known and decreasing future pricing

1.1.1.5. From ESKOM and SA Government’s point of view

1.1.1.5.1. Central Control

1.1.2. Is it for the 50,000 ESKOM employees and contractors and the 20,000 people building Medupi and Kusile?

1.1.3. Or is it for the 55,000,000 people who need electricity?

1.1.3.1. Especially in 4IR with the Energy Internet, IOT, and 3D printers

1.1.3.2. Eskom’s staff are amongst the highest paid in South Africa and so one would expect that none of them would have problems finding other work if they were retrenched

1.1.4. Worldwide problems

1.1.4.1. Other countries and utilities have the same problems as South Africa. We fix SA. Then we go there and fix there.

1.2. 40, 28, 160, 360 ?

1.2.1. GW

1.2.1.1. 40 x 3.6% per annum for 20 years x twice the population

1.2.1.1.1. = 160 GW

1.2.1.2. Coal exports and its thermal value

1.2.1.3. Minerals and beneficiation

1.2.1.3.1. Iron ore

1.2.1.3.2. Uranium

1.2.1.3.3. Titanium

1.2.2. ESKOM Sales and Central Control

1.2.2.1. 28 GW decreasing?

1.2.2.2. 200 GW increasing?

1.2.2.2.1. A stock exchange for electricity

1.2.2.3. Embedded Generation

1.2.2.3.1. IRP says it could already be as much as 10GW

1.2.2.3.2. And Embedded Water Storage

1.2.2.4. Borrowing

1.2.2.4.1. Will we prove the ratings agencies right

1.2.3. Meet your license conditions

1.3. Stats

1.3.1. Which stats should we believe?

1.3.1.1. If one looks at shipping centre and building developments, how is this happening without electricity?

1.3.2. Rich people are building their own electricity, water, and food infrastructure, and are still paying taxes so that the poor get these services for free. And the rich (taxpayer) gets a bad rap for doing this

1.4. The fastest fix

1.4.1. Level the playing fields

1.4.1.1. Give the middle class taxpayer the same benefits as the EIUG and big industry and shopping centres

1.4.1.1.1. Investments before VAT and before tax

1.4.1.1.2. Time of Use Tariffs without Service Fees

1.4.1.1.3. Modified NEM

1.4.1.1.4. DR

1.4.1.1.5. Standard Offer and Standard Product for anyone

1.4.1.1.6. Incentives for bio digesters and in grid batteries and LPG generators

1.4.1.1.7. Import EV’s without 45% import duty

1.4.1.2. Change the law so that is Allows rather than Impedes Policy and NPC2010

1.4.1.2.1. Consult with Active Citizens

1.4.1.3. Stop changing the “rules”

1.4.1.4. Same kind of SSEG installation process as in Germany & the USA

1.5. What is South Africa’s biggest problem?

2. ESKOM CEO

2.1. Book

2.1.1. Electricity for all

3. Moody’s and Ratings

3.1. Policy

3.1.1. 1998 electricity

3.1.1.1. 30% private supply by 2010

3.1.1.2. SBO

3.1.1.2.1. Single Buyer Office

3.1.2. 2003 renewable energy

3.1.2.1. “SSEG might happen with or without government incentives”

3.1.2.2. The ESKOM Cliff

3.2. Law

3.2.1. It’s illegal! It’s designed to protect monopolies at the expense of the poor, especially the poor

3.3. Translation

3.3.1. Anton Eberhard

3.3.2. Grove Steyn

3.3.3. 20 years

3.4. Commentary

3.5. Hidden Messages

4. The Block

4.1. Exponential Growth Scale Up

4.1.1. Phase 1: 1 house; 10 years; R650,000

4.1.2. Phase 2: 9 houses to complete the first 10 house block; 6 months; R200,000 each

4.1.3. Phase 3: 100 houses (10 blocks): R180,000 each

4.1.4. Phase 4: 1000 houses (half a suburb); R160,000 each

4.1.5. Phase 5: 10,000 houses (5 suburbs); R140,000 each

4.1.6. Phase 6: 100,000 houses

4.1.6.1. Etc

4.2. See Spreadsheet

5. Future proof the organization

5.1. The CEC

5.1.1. The Chief Executive Committee

5.1.1.1. With its spokesperson

5.1.1.2. The ESKOM Cooperative

5.1.1.3. There are lots of people who have been responsible for getting ESKOM where it is

5.1.1.3.1. They should all be recognized

5.2. 5 year goals

5.2.1. Manageable debt

5.2.2. Understandable debt

5.2.2.1. Compare no profits in a textile factory for the first 10 years

5.2.2.2. The same with a new large scale power station, no profits for the first 25 years

5.2.3. Decreasing electricity prices in real terms

5.2.4. Security of supply

5.2.4.1. And an ESKOM that achieves 100% electrification and 100% Electricity needs within 5 years

5.2.4.2. An ESKOM which becomes the Organisation that other utilities benchmark against

5.2.4.3. An ESKOM which solves the “tree” problem

5.2.4.3.1. An ESKOM which realizes that it is part of a world wide utility solution and which seeks to distinguish itself here, rather than trying to always build the biggest and best and trying to outsmart other people and organizations

5.2.5. Level playing fields

5.2.5.1. Including resource, including coal, supply

5.2.6. An ESKOM that embraces the future

5.2.6.1. An ESKOM that satisfies Ian McRae’s dream of an integrated Southern Africa Grid

5.2.6.2. An ESKOM which draws people from all over the world so see its functionality, it’s functional approach, one that embraces humility before bravado

5.2.7. An ESKOM which sets up an environment for all SOE’s to follow

5.2.8. An ESKOM which keeps all its stakeholders happy

5.2.9. An ESKOM which makes more money and satisfies more dreams (corporate and private) than anyone thought possible

5.2.9.1. A search for good ideas, and low hanging fruit

5.2.10. Localization

5.2.10.1. Firstly of advisors

5.2.10.2. Secondly long term so that local entrepreneurs and investors are not screwed

5.2.10.3. Thirdly, like Germany, of tooling and systems, moving skilled labour up to knowledable labour

5.2.11. Security of resource

5.2.11.1. An ESKOM, whose outputs are no only Electricity, but also clean air, and clean water, and a restored environment

5.2.12. Other ideas

5.2.12.1. SAVE

5.2.12.2. Joule