Cancel Everything - 11

1. Historical perspective 1: During 1918 influenza epidemic, Krusen allows huge parade in Philadelphia leading to 12,000 deaths.

2. Historical perspective 2: During the same epidemic, Starkloff shuts down St. Louis and only 1,700 people die.

2.1. Philadelphia’s health commissioner, allowed a huge parade to take place on September 28; some 200,000 people marched. In the following days and weeks, the bodies piled up in the city’s morgues. By the end of the season, 12,000 residents had died

3. Fact 1: COVID-19 cases have increased exponentially

3.1. In the city of Wuhan there were 444 confirmed cases and a week later there were 4,903 cases.

4. Fact 2: It's deadlier than flu

4.1. The WHO says the current fatality rate is 3.4

4.2. The Coronavirus is about 10x as deadly as the flu

4.3. Early guestimates made before data was widely available suggested the fatality rate is about 1%.

5. Fact 3: Extreme social distancing is only effective solution to slowing spread

5.1. Compares and Contrasts how foreign countries are practicing social distancing already, and how their cases all already decreasing, compared to other countries that haven't implemented extreme social distancing.

5.2. Example: In Singapore, the government canceled public events & installed medical stations to measure the body temperatures of passersby while private companies handed out free hand sanitizer, as a result - the number of cases in Singapore grew much more slowly than in nearby countries.

5.3. After China closed off heavily populated areas and forced quarantine, covid cases started to decrease. (This helps us see that quarantine actually worked and makes the statement credible).

6. In 1918, Philadelphia did not shut down during the Spanish Flu and had a parade of over 200,000 people. St. Louis did shut down and their per capita fatality rate was half of Philadelphia's.

7. it suggests that we should prepare to have up to 10 times as many cases a week from today, and up to 100 times as many cases two weeks from today.