brain scanning, mind uploading
extrapolation shows human-like computer capacity a few decades away
AI will make sufficient progress that once we cross that threshold, we'll have superhuman intelligence
once this happens, the economy and human society will change radically
AI isn't possible
super-human AI isn't possible (there is some intrinsic limit to how powerful an AI can become)
cheap AI would cause the economy to collapse and therefore destroy the singularity before it happens
humanity will follow a sigmoid curve, just like other species, once it reaches carrying capacity
"AI" is emulated minds
minds are black boxes, no splices, etc.
free market assumption (as reference point)
better, cheaper music, entertainment, games, ...
more inequality, more top performance
robots can do most things humans can
immortality (provided it can afford it)
travel via transmission of software
no ecosystem needed
reproduction by copying mature individuals, no childhood/training needed
copies = changes in labor market, current limit to economic growth is people production
wages fall to near hardware maintenance cost (supply and demand), for both humans and machines
wages less than human subsistence
non-wage assets (land, etc.) grows very quickly
generally feel human, behave human
but: uploads and copies are selective
first uploading: big companies for workers
preference for smart, conscientious, workaholic
choice of mind speeds
choice of virtual bodies
more work, less sleep, more inequality
deception, motivation easier to detect than physical brains
work in virtual variety
ems can be speeded up, up to 10^7 times
speedup means potential elimination of hierarchy in organizations (just speed up boss)
running fast is high class
retire at slow speed
speed of light becomes "city size limit" for virtual actors
varieties of life
which copy is my friend?
which copy am I married to?
solution: make and retire teams together
inequality has been growing, alpha is exponent in Pareto distribution, wealthiest person owns 0.2% of everything
em inequality will be higher still, wealthiest person owns 3% of everything
is a copy a gift, loan, stock, or slave?
limit risk, black markets
clan as a unit of law, regulation, finance, politics
mind theft, stolen minds might be tortured, stolen minds might compete with you, open source minds
interesting analysis, but conclusions and problems hinge on "black box human-like minds"
customized AI avoids most of these problems while preserving the benefits
what will happen to the economy if most tasks can be automated?
will people starve because wages go to zero?
will very few people own all the "means of production"?
old argument: Luddites, Marx, etc.
serious analysis needed, including simulations (next year: multi-agent simulations)