Create your own awesome maps

Even on the go

with our free apps for iPhone, iPad and Android

Get Started

Already have an account?
Log In

FFAI The Singularity by Mind Map: FFAI The Singularity
0.0 stars - reviews range from 0 to 5

FFAI The Singularity

Ray Kurzweil, Vernon Vinge

emergence of superintelligence

predictions beyond that are meaningless

change can happen very suddenly

general causes

artificial intelligence

biological enhancement

brain-computer interfaces

brain scanning, mind uploading

nanotechnology

Moore's Law

Paradigm Shift Rate

argument

extrapolation shows human-like computer capacity a few decades away

AI will make sufficient progress that once we cross that threshold, we'll have superhuman intelligence

once this happens, the economy and human society will change radically

objections

AI isn't possible

super-human AI isn't possible (there is some intrinsic limit to how powerful an AI can become)

cheap AI would cause the economy to collapse and therefore destroy the singularity before it happens

humanity will follow a sigmoid curve, just like other species, once it reaches carrying capacity

Robin Hanson

economics of whole brain emulation

uploaded, simulated minds

assumptions

"AI" is emulated minds

minds are black boxes, no splices, etc.

free market assumption (as reference point)

generic future

better technology

bigger organizations

more specialization

better, cheaper music, entertainment, games, ...

more inequality, more top performance

robots

robots can do most things humans can

immortality (provided it can afford it)

travel via transmission of software

no ecosystem needed

reproduction by copying mature individuals, no childhood/training needed

copies = changes in labor market, current limit to economic growth is people production

wages fall to near hardware maintenance cost (supply and demand), for both humans and machines

wages less than human subsistence

non-wage assets (land, etc.) grows very quickly

ems

generally feel human, behave human

but: uploads and copies are selective

first uploading: big companies for workers

preference for smart, conscientious, workaholic

ems

choice of mind speeds

choice of virtual bodies

more work, less sleep, more inequality

deception, motivation easier to detect than physical brains

work in virtual variety

speedup

ems can be speeded up, up to 10^7 times

speedup means potential elimination of hierarchy in organizations (just speed up boss)

running fast is high class

retire at slow speed

speed of light becomes "city size limit" for virtual actors

varieties of life

varieties of life

social issues

which copy is my friend?

which copy am I married to?

solution: make and retire teams together

inequality

inequality has been growing, alpha is exponent in Pareto distribution, wealthiest person owns 0.2% of everything

em inequality will be higher still, wealthiest person owns 3% of everything

legal issues

is a copy a gift, loan, stock, or slave?

limit risk, black markets

clan as a unit of law, regulation, finance, politics

mind theft, stolen minds might be tortured, stolen minds might compete with you, open source minds

notes

interesting analysis, but conclusions and problems hinge on "black box human-like minds"

customized AI avoids most of these problems while preserving the benefits

open questions

what will happen to the economy if most tasks can be automated?

will people starve because wages go to zero?

will very few people own all the "means of production"?

old argument: Luddites, Marx, etc.

serious analysis needed, including simulations (next year: multi-agent simulations)