1. 3. . Heuristics for Uncertain Times
1.1. Simple heuristics often work better than complex models in unpredictable situations
1.2. Example: The "one-over-N" heuristic
1.3. "Less is more" (Gerd Gigerenzer )
2. 4. Application
2.1. For individuals
2.1.1. Understand
2.1.2. Reflection
2.1.3. Journaling
2.2. For leaders and managers
2.2.1. Thinking
2.2.2. Sharing
2.2.3. Balancing
2.2.4. Enhancing
3. 1. Perception in Decision-making
3.1. Heuristics ( Kahneman & Tversky )
3.1.1. Mental shortcuts for fast decisions without overthinking
3.1.2. Key issue: Cognitive biases often lead to sytematic errors
3.2. Rational models
3.2.1. Definition: Analtical, step-by-step process to find the best outcome
3.2.2. Characteristics
3.2.2.1. Deliberate, slow, structured
3.2.2.2. Requires exhaustive analysis of all information
3.2.3. Downside: not suitable for fast-moving uncertain conditions
3.3. Gigerenzer's view
3.3.1. Key Argument
3.3.1.1. Heuristics can lead to better decisions than analytical models in real-life situations
3.3.1.2. Mental shortcuts save time and energy when immediate action is required
4. 2. The Role of Intuition
4.1. Definition
4.1.1. Quick decisions
4.1.2. Gut feelings and experience
4.2. Function
4.2.1. Fast-moving scenarios
4.2.2. Incomplete information
4.3. Example
4.3.1. About 50% of major decisions are based on gut feelings. (Fox, 2017)