1. Revenue Drivers
1.1. TIV/ Domestic Demand
1.1.1. Substitutes
1.1.1.1. illicits
1.1.1.1.1. laws
1.1.1.1.2. enforcements
1.1.1.2. e-cigarettes
1.1.1.2.1. tax structure
1.1.1.2.2. regulations
1.1.1.2.3. study on impacts
1.1.1.3. anti-smoking products
1.1.1.3.1. e-cigs
1.1.1.3.2. quit smoking therapies
1.1.1.3.3. nicotine patches
1.1.2. disposable income
1.1.2.1. BR1M
1.1.2.2. salary hike
1.1.2.2.1. civil servants
1.1.2.2.2. minimum wage policy
1.1.2.3. commodities price increase
1.1.2.3.1. palm oil
1.1.2.3.2. rubber
1.1.2.4. RM35/day, below RM3k, part-timer unemployed benefits
1.1.3. population
1.1.3.1. mortality rate
1.1.3.1.1. smokers died
1.1.3.2. population growth rate
1.1.3.2.1. new smoking population
1.1.4. Seasonal effect
1.1.4.1. Ramadhan
1.1.4.2. Bajet
1.1.4.2.1. pre-Bajet stock loading
1.1.4.3. Sporting events
1.1.4.3.1. World Cups, Euros etc
1.1.5. Regulations
1.1.5.1. lobbyists
1.1.5.1.1. legal age of smokings
1.1.5.1.2. non-smoking areas
1.1.5.1.3. minimum price
1.1.5.1.4. packs
1.1.5.2. no smoking campaigns
1.2. Market share
1.2.1. product innovation
1.2.1.1. packagings
1.2.1.2. capsules
1.2.1.3. less smell
1.2.1.4. e-cigarettes
1.2.1.5. size
1.2.2. segments
1.2.2.1. Premium
1.2.2.1.1. higher ASP
1.2.2.1.2. higher margins
1.2.2.2. VFM
1.2.2.2.1. lower ASP
1.2.2.2.2. lower margins
1.2.3. flavour
1.2.3.1. full flavour
1.2.3.2. menthol
1.2.3.3. lights
1.2.3.4. lights + menthol
1.2.3.5. kretek
1.2.3.5.1. leader: Gudang Garam (smuggled)
1.2.4. brand loyalty
1.2.4.1. trademark royalties
1.2.4.2. demographic profiles
1.2.4.2.1. chinese: Mild Seven, Marlboro
1.2.4.2.2. Malay: Dunhill
1.2.4.2.3. Rural vs Urban
1.2.4.3. change in tastes
1.3. Export volume
1.3.1. export demand
1.3.1.1. Singapore
1.3.1.2. South Korea
1.3.1.3. Taiwan/HK
1.3.1.4. Australia
1.3.1.5. Japan
1.3.2. Plant spare capacity
1.4. Price
1.4.1. Regulated
1.4.1.1. Excise Duty
1.4.1.2. Sales Tax / GST
1.4.1.3. Off Factory Price
1.4.1.4. Minimum price
1.4.2. company/industry decisions
1.4.2.1. price hike
1.4.2.2. price adjustment (decrease)
2. Cost Drivers
2.1. Excise Duties
2.1.1. Gov't Fiscal position
2.1.2. sales tax, GST
2.1.3. Ex-factory price
2.1.4. political will
2.1.4.1. election year duty hike absence
2.2. Raw Materials
2.2.1. MYR/USD
2.2.2. Trade Agreements
2.2.2.1. AFTA
2.2.2.2. TPPA
2.2.3. Regulations/Requirements
2.2.3.1. minimum local leaves content
2.2.4. Natural factors
2.2.4.1. draught
2.2.4.2. monsoon season
2.2.4.2.1. flood compensation
2.2.5. tobacco blend
2.2.6. Export Demand
2.3. Advertisement and Promotion
2.3.1. POSM
2.3.1.1. contract bids
2.3.1.2. expensive
2.3.2. 4Q backloading
2.3.3. packagings
2.3.3.1. new machineries investment
2.3.3.1.1. reloc seal
2.3.3.1.2. premium-feel packs
2.3.3.1.3. special edition packs
2.3.4. Regulated
2.3.5. promo ladies
2.4. Efficiency
2.4.1. IT-system
2.4.2. distribution
2.4.2.1. outsource
2.5. Overheads
2.5.1. Labour
2.5.1.1. Staff bonuses
2.5.1.2. minimum wage
2.5.1.2.1. upstream
2.5.1.2.2. downstream
2.5.2. Electricity
2.6. Capex
2.6.1. capex cycle