1. rethink needed
1.1. governments
1.2. firms
1.3. NGOs
2. six steps
2.1. science matters
2.1.1. CO2 is stock pollutant
2.1.2. problem is global
2.1.3. massive re-engineering of energy systems needed
2.2. myths about policy process
2.2.1. policy debates are steeped in a series of myths
2.2.2. therefore coordination has become stuck
2.2.3. myth: if only societies had "political will" they could tackle the task
2.2.4. scientist's myth
2.2.4.1. "scientific research can determine safe level of global warming"
2.2.5. diplomacy myth
2.2.5.1. "solving int'l problem hinges on negotiation of universal agreements"
2.2.5.2. global agreements make it easier to hide behind lowest common denominator
2.2.6. technology myth
2.2.6.1. "cheaper new tech will quickly enter into service"
2.2.6.2. new tech not incorporated in corporation money-making system
2.2.6.3. tech transformation depends on a lot more than engineering
2.2.6.3.1. new business models
2.2.6.3.2. new industrial practices
2.2.6.4. leads to overly ambitious policy goals
2.3. regulating emissions
2.3.1. most studies of int'l coordination treat governments as "black boxes"
2.3.1.1. ignore national policy
2.3.1.2. this produces certain kinds of policies
2.3.1.3. worked in early stages
2.3.1.3.1. because small changes didn't hurt
2.3.1.4. leads to gridlock later on
2.3.1.4.1. huge gap
2.3.1.5. leads to legal zombies
2.3.1.5.1. Copenhagen Accord
2.3.1.5.2. no relationship to what government will actually implement
2.3.1.5.3. but hard to kill or ignore
2.3.2. simple theory of national policy needed
2.3.2.1. power
2.3.2.1.1. which countries really matter
2.3.2.1.2. must be engaged in coordination
2.3.2.2. interests
2.3.2.2.1. what are these countries willing to do
2.3.2.3. capabilities
2.3.2.3.1. what are they actually able to do
2.3.3. two categories of countries
2.3.3.1. enthusiastic
2.3.3.1.1. willing to spend own resources to control emissions
2.3.3.1.2. countries
2.3.3.2. reluctant
2.3.3.2.1. countries
2.3.3.2.2. reasons
2.3.3.2.3. solution
2.4. investing in innovation
2.4.1. active technology policy needed
2.4.2. 95% of innovative activity in only 10 countries
2.4.3. collaboration between governments
2.4.3.1. countries will under-invest in new tech if not confident it can create new markets worldwide
2.4.4. what doesn't work
2.4.4.1. new Manhattan Project
2.4.4.1.1. just one customer
2.4.4.1.2. commercial competition was irrelevant
2.4.4.2. just throwing money at R&D
2.4.5. energy technology innovation spending
2.4.5.1. plummeted from 1980 to 2008
2.5. bracing for change
2.5.1. current system big and laden with inertia
2.5.2. heading in the wrong direction
2.5.3. big money pot from rich to poor countries unlikely to make a difference
2.5.3.1. instead need to facilitate adaptation-friendly contexts across the developing world
2.5.4. ecosystem changes
2.5.4.1. need for
2.5.4.1.1. zookeeping
2.5.4.1.2. triage
2.5.5. worst case scenarios
2.5.5.1. make emergency plans ready
2.5.5.1.1. geoengineering
2.6. new international strategy
2.6.1. diplomatic toolbox of last 20 years wrong one for the job
2.6.1.1. global agreements
2.6.1.2. binding treaties
2.6.1.3. emission targets + timetables
2.6.2. alternatives
2.6.2.1. governments need to be offered flexibility to adopt highly diverse policy strategies
2.6.2.2. cooperation should begin with smaller groups, "clubs"
2.6.2.2.1. then later expand
2.6.2.3. should begin with non-binding agreements
2.6.2.3.1. more flexible
2.6.2.4. should focus on policies that governments can control
2.6.2.4.1. emission targets/timetables are beyond gov. control