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Tabletop Cold Fusion (CF) discovered by Mind Map: Tabletop Cold
Fusion (CF)
discovered
5.0 stars - 1 reviews range from 0 to 5

Tabletop Cold Fusion (CF) discovered

Longer Term

Those are longer term targets that are brought into the realm of the possible by the invention of CF

Examples : Nanotech as a production tool, Civilian robots, commercial space flight

This is the opportunity to make big money : identify and invest in (Private Equity) companies / labs that are working on those techs, while everybody is busy buying palladium mines.

Economic Growth

Immediate impact (0-10 yrs)

Lots of investment are necessary to build up CF capacity

Some industries will start investing today to profit from expected lower energy prices in 5/10 years

Positive impact, even before CF is available, Global growth = higher consumption of industrial materials

Long term impact 10 yrs +

Actual macro impact of CF : decreases in electricity prices and oil prices, Cheaper energy = more growth

Analogy with discovery of oil

Strategic

Military

An army with CF powered vehicles can essentially get rid of gasoline as a logistic constraint

With more miniaturization, military robots and powered armor become a reality, Changes the balance of small scale warfare / counter insurgency

Very probable global increase in military spending, Long military research / producers able to take advantage of cold fusion

More generally : a more uncertain world, power gap between leading nations (ability to develop CF) and others is greatly increased., "War insurance policy" (long DOTM puts on government bonds)

Oil is not rendered useless, but definitely loses some importance

Middle east, Can certainly survive and maybe thrive thanks to huge cash reserves, Long Gulf economies

Africa oil countries, Should suffer mightily, Short Venezuela, Nigeria

Venezuela

Brazil, Ethanol industry will suffer, but not enough to hurt the entire country

Japan, As a big importer of oil, will certainly benefit, Long Nikkei-225

China

USA, Will benefit : less dependant on oil, besides as a technological country, will be able to use CF a lot, Long NASDAQ

Palladium becomes a strategic resources

Russia loses on Oil, wins on Palladium : a net positive bargain, I woudn't trust the RUB as a currency, but some investment on the RTS can be very profitable (even if a bit risky)

South Africa becomes an important strategic country, Long ZAR

USA & Canada are currently small producers : do they have reserves to increase production

Gives advantage to technologically advanced countries

Long USD, Too many factors influencing USD to trade this idea

Long JPY

Geographic

Invention is in Europe

Influx of capital

Positive impact might delay necessary reforms

Overall effect difficult to assess

France, as Europe's most advanced nuclear country, might benefit most, Long CAC40

Investments

Palladium and Nickel are the new oil (increase in value, become strategic resources)

Nickel : common metal, quantity needed probably low, no economic or strategic impact

Palladium : Expensive and rare metal, Long palladium. Crowded trade, but rationale is strong, and it did work in 1989., Long palladium miners. Crowded trade too, but still good enough to be tried.

Change in expectation in other industries

Automobile, Ready for Electric cars, Renault, Toyota, Smaller companies

Oil 'n Gas, Today : not much impact on Oil supply / demand equation. However, we can expect lower demand for oil in 10 years, Not tradeable, Oil investment will decrease significantly, as oil companies prepare for a future will lower oil demand, Short Oil exploration / Oil equipment, Oil companies : will have to choose between shrinking and becoming gasoline supplier, or to expand their business, using their cash reserves to become major players in CF, Stockpicking opportunity, not sector bet

Renewable energies, Stop being cool, stop being important, Short solar panels, Short wind generation, Short Biofuels

Water, Desalination becomes economic reality, as it consumes a lot of electricity, Long desalination companies, Good news for drought prone countries : Australia & South Africa

Coal, As a resource, coal will slowly slide into irrelevance, as it is perfectly replaced by cold fusion. Shorting coal futures probably not a good idea, equity of miners a better idea, Short coal mines

Current technologies that will benefit of lower energy (mostly electricity) prices, and need long-term investments ?

High speed trains become an ideal mean od transportation, as operational costs are reduced, Electric trains manufacturers, Long Steel (global economy + track building)

Metal refining - uses a lot of electricity (Steel 15/20% of the cost is electricity, Aluminum : 30%)

Petroleum refining (43% energy)

Other : Paper, Cement, Chemicals

Social

Decentralization effect : when CF starts to be deployed, the power of the state is less needed, small communities can survive with less help

States become weaker

Power shift towards corporations / individuals

Potentially destabilzing effect