Shenia's Map - Merck

1. Phase I: Safety Trial, 2yrs, Cost $30M

1.1. 60% Success Rate

1.1.1. Phase II: Efficacy for Weight Loss & Depression, 2 yrs, Cost $40M

1.1.1.1. 10% Success Rate -> Depression Only

1.1.1.1.1. Phase III: 3 yrs, Cost $200M

1.1.1.2. 15% Success Rate -> Weight Loss Only

1.1.1.2.1. Phase III: 3 yrs, Cost $150M

1.1.1.3. 5% Success Rate -> Dual

1.1.1.3.1. Phase III: 3 yrs, Cost $500M

1.1.1.4. 70% Failure Rate

1.1.1.4.1. Lose $70M (Phases I & II)

1.2. 40% Failure Rate

1.2.1. Lose $30M (Phase I)

2. Use a decision tree to calculate the value of this opportunity. Should they pursue this opportunity?