1. About
1.1. Prof. Hauptmann, Tel-Aviv University
1.2. EU funded project
1.3. Assist decision makers
1.4. 1700+ members in the community
2. Subject
2.1. "Wild cards"
2.1.1. wild scenario's
2.1.2. low likelihood, high-impact events
2.2. Most predictions deal with extrapolation, likely things
2.3. This is different - predict unlikely things
2.4. Wild cards, Weak signals
3. Proponent
3.1. Karlheinz Steinmueller
3.1.1. Researcher & sci-fi writer
3.2. "Wild cards" book
3.3. Calls this: Futurequakes
4. Used crowd-sourcing
4.1. Allowed the public to enter "Wildcards"
4.2. Evaluated them while noting the expertize of the users in the subject domain
5. Foresight of Evolving Security Threats using Emergin Technology
5.1. example
5.1.1. Convergence of
5.1.1.1. Programmable matter
5.1.1.2. Molecular manufacturing
5.1.1.3. Internet of things
5.1.2. but then hackers can cause product to self-destruct
6. Used the Delphi method for evaluating Wild cards & Weak signals
6.1. Delphi is used online in large scale surveys
6.1.1. iDelphi
7. Wild Cards example
7.1. Space domain
7.1.1. Alien contacts
7.1.2. Global warming isn't anthropogenic
7.1.3. Revolutionary space transporatation
7.1.4. Spacy colonies
8. iKnow deliverables
8.1. Wild cards reports
8.1.1. Policy alerts
8.2. Observations
8.2.1. Gap between importance & preparedness
8.2.1.1. policy implications
8.2.2. Higher priority in the long term
8.2.3. Increase awareness
8.3. Example
8.3.1. Transhumanism becomes a significant force
8.3.1.1. What if body & mental augmentation becomes real?
8.3.1.2. Many ethical implications
8.3.1.3. iKnow suggesting which research is required
8.4. New Web2.0 futures toolkit
8.4.1. iKnow
8.4.2. iCommunity
8.4.3. iLibrary
8.4.4. iDelphi
8.4.5. iScan
8.4.6. ...
9. Next project
9.1. iKnowFutures
9.1.1. EU wants to prepare for future high-impact risks & opportunities
9.1.2. Methodology containing
9.1.2.1. Experts assesment
9.1.2.2. Delphi
9.1.2.3. Prediction markets
10. Steinmueller:
10.1. In the long run, wild cards will shape the future!
10.1.1. according to statistics
11. Wild Card Example
11.1. Ultimative wisdom of the crowds
11.1.1. Connected people & machines minds creates global consciousness
11.1.2. Book:
11.1.2.1. World wide mind
11.1.2.1.1. Michael Chorost