1. MEGATRENDS
1.1. Individual Empowerment
1.1.1. Individual empowerment will accelerate owing to poverty reduction, growth of the global middle class, greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communications and manufacturing technologies, and health-care advances.
1.2. Diffusion of Power
1.2.1. There will not be any hegemonic power. Power will shift to networks and coalitions in a multipolar world.
1.3. Demographic Patterns
1.3.1. The demographic arc of instability will narrow. Economic growth might decline in “aging” countries. Sixty percent of the world’s population will live in urbanized areas; migration will increase.
1.4. Food, Water, Energy Nexus
1.4.1. Demand for these resources will grow substantially owing to an increase in the global
1.4.2. Demand for these resources will grow substantially owing to an increase in the global population. Tackling problems pertaining to one commodity will be linked to supply and demand for the others.
2. GAME-CHANGERS
2.1. Crisis-Prone Global Economy
2.1.1. Will global volatility and imbalances among players with different economic interests result in collapse? Or will greater multipolarity lead to increased resiliency in the global economic order?
2.2. Governance Gap
2.2.1. Will governments and institutions be able to adapt fast enough to harness change instead of being overwhelmed by it?
2.3. Potential for Increased Conflict
2.3.1. Will rapid changes and shifts in power lead to more intrastate and interstate conflicts?
2.4. Wider Scope of Regional Instability
2.4.1. Will regional instability, especially in the Middle East and South Asia, spill over and create global insecurity?
2.5. Impact of New Technologies
2.5.1. Will technological breakthroughs be developed in time to boost economic productivity and solve the problems caused by a growing world population, rapid urbanization, and climate change?
2.6. Role of the United States
2.6.1. Will the US be able to work with new partners to reinvent the international system?
3. POTENTIAL WORLDS
3.1. Stalled Engines
3.1.1. In the most plausible worst-case scenario, the risks of interstate conflict increase. The US draws inward and globalization stalls.
3.2. Fusion
3.2.1. In the most plausible best-case outcome, China and the US collaborate on a range of issues, leading to broader global cooperation.
3.3. Gini-Out-of-theBottle
3.3.1. Inequalities explode as some countries become big winners and others fail. Inequalities within countries increase social tensions. Without completely disengaging, the US is no longer the “global policeman.”
3.4. Nonstate World
3.4.1. Driven by new technologies, nonstate actors take the lead in confronting global challenges.