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iKnow project talk, Aharon Hauptmann by Mind Map: iKnow project talk, Aharon Hauptmann
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iKnow project talk, Aharon Hauptmann

About

Prof. Hauptmann, Tel-Aviv University

EU funded project

Assist decision makers

1700+ members in the community

Subject

"Wild cards"

Most predictions deal with extrapolation, likely things

This is different - predict unlikely things

Wild cards, Weak signals

Proponent

Karlheinz Steinmueller

"Wild cards" book

Calls this: Futurequakes

Used crowd-sourcing

Allowed the public to enter "Wildcards"

Evaluated them while noting the expertize of the users in the subject domain

Foresight of Evolving Security Threats using Emergin Technology

example

Used the Delphi method for evaluating Wild cards & Weak signals

Delphi is used online in large scale surveys

Wild Cards example

Space domain

iKnow deliverables

Wild cards reports

Observations

Example

New Web2.0 futures toolkit

Next project

iKnowFutures

Steinmueller:

In the long run, wild cards will shape the future!

Wild Card Example

Ultimative wisdom of the crowds