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iKnow project talk, Aharon Hauptmann by Mind Map: iKnow project talk, Aharon Hauptmann
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iKnow project talk, Aharon Hauptmann


Prof. Hauptmann, Tel-Aviv University

EU funded project

Assist decision makers

1700+ members in the community


"Wild cards"

wild scenario's

low likelihood, high-impact events

Most predictions deal with extrapolation, likely things

This is different - predict unlikely things

Wild cards, Weak signals


Karlheinz Steinmueller

Researcher & sci-fi writer

"Wild cards" book

Calls this: Futurequakes

Used crowd-sourcing

Allowed the public to enter "Wildcards"

Evaluated them while noting the expertize of the users in the subject domain

Foresight of Evolving Security Threats using Emergin Technology


Convergence of, Programmable matter, Molecular manufacturing, Internet of things

but then hackers can cause product to self-destruct

Used the Delphi method for evaluating Wild cards & Weak signals

Delphi is used online in large scale surveys


Wild Cards example

Space domain

Alien contacts

Global warming isn't anthropogenic

Revolutionary space transporatation

Spacy colonies

iKnow deliverables

Wild cards reports

Policy alerts


Gap between importance & preparedness, policy implications

Higher priority in the long term

Increase awareness


Transhumanism becomes a significant force, What if body & mental augmentation becomes real?, Many ethical implications, iKnow suggesting which research is required

New Web2.0 futures toolkit







Next project


EU wants to prepare for future high-impact risks & opportunities

Methodology containing, Experts assesment, Delphi, Prediction markets


In the long run, wild cards will shape the future!

according to statistics

Wild Card Example

Ultimative wisdom of the crowds

Connected people & machines minds creates global consciousness

Book:, World wide mind, Michael Chorost