1. EUA don't have to be owned before emissions are emitted
1.1. You can buy EUA after the emission
1.2. Allows for strategy
2. EUA action taken not in real time (when weather changes) but when weather forecast changes
2.1. For CERs impact when they buy and hedge it, not when they hand it in for complianxce
3. Short term TIM
3.1. screenshot
4. Power
4.1. Sector Split
4.1.1. Routine Hedging is BAU accordinmg to curves
4.1.2. Deviation due to Spreads
4.1.3. Dark spreads
4.1.3.1. even if dark spreads go down - if power prices go up, profitable for lignite to hedge
4.1.3.1.1. try to estimate how many hours is each fuel setting price
4.1.3.1.2. how many hours is each plant in the money
4.1.3.1.3. We look into short and long term moving avergaes
4.1.3.1.4. utilities can't unwind for spec reasoons. they can stop hedging, but own use rules prevent unwinding
4.1.4. Fuel switch
4.1.4.1. every year we look how did exepcted fuel switch change
4.1.4.2. weigh with share og hedged portfolio
4.1.4.3. assess changes
4.1.4.4. utilities hedge stack on average
4.1.4.4.1. (miox of coal and gas)
4.1.4.4.2. every day uitils hedge position based on financial fuel switch economics in the future
4.1.5. Adjustment due to weather
5. Momentum
5.1. Speculation
5.1.1. Deviation from forecast caused by speculkatiors
5.1.1.1. if prices rise less than forecast (assuming perfect model) then explained by short sellers
5.1.1.2. Assumption that balanced again within 5 days => a short will lead to demand wirtuihion next 5 days
5.1.1.2.1. Illustration
5.2. Performance test
5.2.1. backtesting
5.2.1.1. model made ca EUR 10 this year
5.2.2. daily revenues
5.2.2.1. strength
5.2.2.1.1. strength not good indicator which way market moves
5.2.2.1.2. Strength not a guarantee for price forecast correctness
6. RE growth
6.1. looking at current curve per hours at this price
6.1.1. look at own portfolio
6.1.2. run portfolio against market
6.1.2.1. run against current market prices
7. hesdge unwind resulting from closure
7.1. if plants closed
7.1.1. unwind hedge
7.1.2. or transfer hedged portion (EYUAs) into a reserve or spec book
7.1.3. take out of hedge accounting into prop book