This Is How We Can Beat the Coronavirus

1. We can create a third path

1.1. We can decide to meet this challenge head-on

1.1.1. It is absolutely within our capacity to do so

1.2. If we screen everyone

1.2.1. and do so regularly

1.2.2. we can let most people return to a more normal life

1.3. If we can be assured that the people who congregate aren’t infectious

1.3.1. they can socialize

1.4. We can build health-care facilities

1.4.1. that do rapid screening and care for people, who are infected

1.4.2. apart from those who are not

1.5. These steps alone still won’t be enough

2. Buy us Time !!!

2.1. We will need to massively strengthen our medical infrastructure

2.2. We will need to build ventilators and add hospital beds

2.2.1. We will need to focus our factories on turning out the protective equipment

2.2.2. masks, gloves, gowns, and so forth

2.2.3. to ensure we keep our health-care workforce safe

2.3. difficult actions we are taking now

2.3.1. to flatten the curve aren’t just intended to slow the rate of infection to levels

2.4. They’re also meant to buy us time

2.4.1. They give us the space to create what we need to make a real difference

2.5. There will likely be more seriously ill people

2.5.1. than we have resources to care for

2.6. meaning that providers will have to make decisions

2.6.1. about whom to treat, and whom not to

3. The aftermath

3.1. If we commit to social distancing

3.1.1. at some point in the next few months

3.1.2. the rate of spread will slow

3.2. We’ll be able to catch our breath

3.3. The temptation then will be to think we have made it past the worst

3.3.1. We cannot give in to that temptation

3.4. If we choose the third course

3.5. when fall arrives

3.5.1. we will be ahead of a resurgence of the infection

3.6. We can keep schools and businesses open as much as possible

3.6.1. closing them quickly when suppression fails

3.6.2. then opening them back up again

3.6.3. once the infected are identified and isolated

3.7. Instead of playing defense,

3.7.1. we could play more offense

3.8. We need to keep time on the clock

3.8.1. time to find a treatment or a vaccine

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5. The current Situation

5.1. If we do nothing

5.1.1. and just let the virus run its course

5.2. we could see three times as many deaths as

5.2.1. we see from cardiovascular disease each year

5.3. it estimated that infections would peak in mid-June

5.3.1. We could expect to see about 55,000 deaths, in just one day

5.4. Suppression Rate

5.4.1. what experts call R0 (R-naught)

5.4.1.1. to less than one

5.4.2. Unchecked

5.4.2.1. the R0 of COVID-19 is between 2 and 3

5.4.3. meaning that every infected person infects

5.4.3.1. on average, two to three others

5.4.4. An R0 less than 1 indicates that

5.4.4.1. each infected person results in fewer than one new infection

5.4.4.2. When this happens, the outbreak will slowly grind to a halt

5.5. Flu in 1918

5.5.1. The spring was bad

5.5.1.1. Over the summer, the numbers of sick dwindled

5.5.1.2. and created a false sense of security

5.5.2. all hell broke loose

5.5.2.1. In late 1918, tens of millions of people died

6. Social Distancing

6.1. We’re closing schools and businesses

6.1.1. and committing to social (really, physical) distancing

6.1.2. so the outcome mentioned above is unlikely to occur

6.2. But this isn’t enough

6.2.1. Even after we do these things

6.2.1.1. significant number of infections will occur

6.2.1.2. more people will need care than we can possibly provide in our hospitals

6.3. asking people to stay away from one another

6.3.1. closing schools, restaurants, and bars

6.3.2. asking people to work from home

6.3.3. and not meet in groups of 10 or more

6.4. But these efforts won’t help those who are already infected

6.4.1. It will take up to two weeks for those infected today to show any symptoms

6.4.2. and some people won’t show symptoms at all

7. Lockdown for 18 months???

7.1. some are now declaring

7.1.1. that we should lockdown for 18 months!!

7.2. They see no alternative

7.2.1. If we go back to normal

7.2.2. they argue

7.2.2.1. the virus will run unchecked and tear through Americans in the fall and winter

7.2.3. infecting 40 to 70 percent of us

7.2.4. killing millions and sending tens of millions to the hospital

7.3. To prevent that

7.3.1. they suggest we keep the world shut down

7.3.2. which would destroy the economy and the fabric of society

7.4. But all of that assumes that we can’t change

7.4.1. that the only two choices are millions of deaths or a wrecked society

7.4.2. That’s not true

8. source