1. About
1.1. http://rafaeli.net
1.2. Proffessor in Haifa University
1.3. Title
1.3.1. flock, crowd, band, swarm, ...
1.3.2. who's wize & whose the baloon
1.4. Slides
1.4.1. http://bit.ly/WisdomOfCrowdsTalk
2. Crowd?
2.1. sum bigger than the individuals
3. Starts to be interesting since the literacy rate risen
4. Leads to Cognitive surplus?
4.1. Clay Shirky's book
4.2. See his TED talk on this
5. The Wisdom of Crowds
5.1. RUN & read the founding book by Surowiecky
5.2. Many criticism
5.3. Team building game - Helium stick
5.3.1. YouTube
5.4. Warmup exercise
5.4.1. how old is the speaker
5.4.2. average of all guesses will be the most accurate
6. Wisdom of the Crowds or Stupidity of the Crowds?
6.1. Surowiecky: no one is wiser than everyone
6.1.1. Demoracy?
6.1.2. Market? Invisible hand
6.2. Wikipedia vs. Britannica
6.3. Where's the distinction?
6.3.1. between
6.3.1.1. decisions for experts
6.3.1.1.1. eg, physicians
6.3.1.2. decisions for crowds
6.3.1.2.1. eg, go to war
7. Examples of the power of Wisdom of crowds
7.1. Linux vs. Windows
8. Other examples: popular (populist) reality shows
9. GroupThink symptoms
9.1. Research shown for many years that
9.1.1. Aggregated crowds is inefficient
9.2. Many illusions such as
9.2.1. Invulnerability
9.2.2. Collective rationalization
9.2.3. Belief in inherent morality
9.2.4. & many more
9.3. Read the book by
9.3.1. Untitled
9.4. Other say there's danger in wisom of crowds
9.4.1. Jaron Lanier
9.4.1.1. Digital Maoism
9.4.2. Go & read the answers to Lanier in the Edge
9.4.2.1. The Reality Club
9.4.2.2. Many answers by all WotC proponents
9.4.2.3. "Digital Barbarism" book
10. Surowiecky's examples
10.1. Galton
10.1.1. Scientist
10.1.2. Aristocrat
10.1.3. Oax experiment
10.1.3.1. Tries to show how ignorant is the crowd
10.1.3.2. Observed the opposite
10.1.3.2.1. 787 guesses
10.1.3.2.2. Average: 1197lbs
10.1.3.2.3. Real weight: 1198lbs
10.2. Who wants to be Millionaire
10.2.1. Phone friend help (wisest man you could recruite)
10.2.1.1. 65% accuracy
10.2.2. Audience help
10.2.2.1. 91% accuracy
10.3. Challenger explosion
10.3.1. Market exchange predicted who was to blame, from 4 suspect companies
10.3.1.1. in 30sec the stocks of the real culprit company fell
11. Should we give the crowds to decide?
11.1. Surowiecky:
11.1.1. 4 conditions
11.1.1.1. Diversity
11.1.1.2. Indepeendence
11.1.1.3. Distribution
11.1.1.4. Smart aggregation
12. Wisdom of search examples
12.1. Web search
12.2. Discovery & rating of news
12.2.1. Started in Google News
12.2.2. Now in all newspapers
12.2.2.1. Outbrain
12.2.2.2. Flipboard
12.3. Prediction markets
12.3.1. use crowds to predict the future
12.4. Consumers
12.4.1. Recommendations systems
12.4.2. Schools ranking
12.5. Medicine?
13. In every domain, there's a move from expert decisions to collective decisions
13.1. Academy
13.2. Military
13.3. Even medicine
14. Wisdom of the Crowds in Twitter
14.1. Sentiment Analysis
14.1.1. proves as best & most efficient trend prediction
14.1.1.1. eg
14.1.1.1.1. Awards winners
14.1.1.1.2. Stock market
14.2. Read on this company:
14.2.1. BlueFin
14.2.1.1. automated mining of population attitudes & sentiments
14.2.1.2. partner of ABCnews
15. Crowd Sourcing
15.1. see catalog in the site:
15.1.1. Crowdsourcing Landscape
15.2. Something proving itself in the industry today
16. & politics
16.1. Revolutions against dictatorships
16.2. Consumers protests
16.3. Direct democracy vs. Representative democracy
16.4. The dangers are anarchism
16.4.1. Disappearance of the control mechanisms imposed by the elites for centuries
17. From product to process
17.1. Clay Shirky
18. Recommended books:
18.1. Wikinomics
18.1.1. Levit &
18.2. Here's comes everybody
18.3. Reinventing discovery
18.3.1. Michael Nielsen
18.4. Too big to know
18.4.1. Weinberger
18.5. Crowdsourcing
18.6. We are smarter than me
18.7. The mesh
19. Criticism
19.1. Idiocy
19.1.1. Never underestimate the stupidity of people in large groups
19.2. Answer:
19.2.1. see Ushahidi
19.2.1.1. TED talk on this
20. Is the crowd a Balloon?
20.1. Vox Populi - Vox Dei
20.2. Surowiecky's conditions
20.3. Malone's conditions cci.mit.edu
20.3.1. Empathy
20.3.2. Equality
20.3.3. Feminicity
20.4. Rephali's conditions
20.4.1. Communication channels
20.4.2. Mutuality
20.4.3. Mediation mechanisms
21. The Carr & Benkler wager
21.1. Benkler's book "Wealth of Networks" says that the Wisdom of Crowds improves our world
21.2. Nicholas Carr had strong criticism, saying its a temporaty trend
21.3. Benkler suggested a bet
21.3.1. Benkler said that this will flourish & win
21.3.2. Carr said that this Benkler is still in the sixties