1. Situation Appraisal
1.1. Identify Causes
1.1.1. List Threats and Opportunities
1.1.1.1. What deviations are occurring?
1.1.1.2. What decisions need to be made?
1.1.1.3. What plans should be implemented?
1.1.1.4. What changes are anticipated?
1.1.1.5. What opportunities exist?
1.1.1.6. What bothers us about...?
1.1.2. Separate and Clarify Concerns
1.1.2.1. What do we mean by...?
1.1.2.2. What exactly is...?
1.1.2.3. What else concerns us about...?
1.1.2.4. What evidence do we have?
1.1.2.5. What different deviations, decisions, or plans are part of this concern?
1.2. Set Priority
1.2.1. Which concern should we work on first?
1.2.2. Current Impact
1.2.2.1. What is the current impact on people, safety, cost, customers, productivity, reputation, etc?
1.2.2.2. What evidence do you have?
1.2.2.3. Which concern is most serious?
1.2.3. Future Impact
1.2.3.1. If left unresolved, how and when will the seriousness change?
1.2.3.2. What evidence do you have?
1.2.3.3. Which concern is getting worse quicker?
1.2.4. Time Frame
1.2.4.1. What is the deadline?
1.2.4.2. When do we need to start?
1.2.4.3. When would resolution become difficult, expensive, impossible, or meaningless?
1.2.4.4. What evidence do you have?
1.2.4.5. Which concerns will be the hardest to resolve later?
1.3. Plan Next Steps
1.3.1. Determine Analysis Needed
1.3.1.1. Situation Appraisal
1.3.1.1.1. Do we need further clarification?
1.3.1.2. Problem Analysis
1.3.1.2.1. Do we have a deviation?
1.3.1.2.2. Is the cause unknown?
1.3.1.2.3. Do we need to know the cause of a deviation to take effective action?
1.3.1.3. Potential Problem (Opportunity) Analysis
1.3.1.3.1. Do we have an action or plan to protect/enhance?
1.3.1.4. Decision Analysis
1.3.1.4.1. Do we need to make a choice?
1.4. Plan Involvement
1.4.1. Determine Help Needed
1.4.1.1. What needs to be done and when?
1.4.1.2. Who needs to be involved for...
1.4.1.2.1. Information?
1.4.1.2.2. Analysis?
1.4.1.2.3. Creativity?
1.4.1.2.4. Commitment?
1.4.1.2.5. Approval?
1.4.1.2.6. Implementation?
1.4.1.2.7. Development?
1.4.1.3. Who will document our process and results?
2. Problem Analysis
2.1. Describe the Problem
2.1.1. What object has the deviation?
2.1.2. What deviation does it have?
2.1.3. What do we see, hear, feel, taste, or smell that tells us there is a deviation?
2.2. Specify the Problem
2.2.1. WHAT
2.2.1.1. IS
2.2.1.1.1. What specific object has the deviation?
2.2.1.1.2. What is the specific deviation?
2.2.1.2. IS NOT
2.2.1.2.1. What similar object could reasonably have the deviation, but does not?
2.2.1.2.2. What deviations could reasonably be observes, but are not?
2.2.2. WHERE
2.2.2.1. IS
2.2.2.1.1. Where is the object when the deviation is observed (geographically)?
2.2.2.1.2. Where is the deviation on the object?
2.2.2.2. IS NOT
2.2.2.2.1. Where else could the object be when the deviation is observed, but is not?
2.2.2.2.2. Where else could the deviation be located on the object, but is not?
2.2.3. WHEN
2.2.3.1. IS
2.2.3.1.1. When was the deviation observed first (in clock and calendar time)?
2.2.3.1.2. When since that time has the deviation been observed? Is there a pattern?
2.2.3.1.3. When, in the objects history or life cycle, was the deviation observed first?
2.2.3.2. IS NOT
2.2.3.2.1. When else could the deviation have been observed first, but was not?
2.2.3.2.2. When since that time could the deviation have been observed, but was not?
2.2.3.2.3. When else, in the objects history or life cycle, could the deviation have been observed, but was not?
2.2.4. EXTENT
2.2.4.1. IS
2.2.4.1.1. How many objects have the deviation?
2.2.4.1.2. What is the size of a single deviation?
2.2.4.1.3. How many deviations are on each object?
2.2.4.1.4. What is the trend?
2.2.4.2. IS NOT
2.2.4.2.1. How many objects could have the deviation, but do not?
2.2.4.2.2. What other size could the deviation be, but is not?
2.2.4.2.3. How many deviations could there be on each object, but are not?
2.2.4.2.4. What could be the trend, but is not?
2.3. Identify Possible Causes
2.3.1. Knowledge and Experience
2.3.1.1. From experience, what could have caused the deviation?
2.3.2. Distinctions and Changes
2.3.2.1. What is different, odd, special, or unique about an IS compared to an IS NOT?
2.3.2.2. What has changed in, on, around, or about each distinction?
2.3.2.3. When did the change occur?
2.3.2.4. How could each change have caused this deviation?
2.3.2.5. Hot could a change plus a distinction have caused this deviation?
2.3.2.6. How could a change plus a change have caused this distinction?
2.3.2.7. What about this distinction suggests a cause for this deviation?
2.4. Evaluate Possible Causes
2.4.1. Test possible causes against the IS and IS NOT specification
2.4.1.1. If ____ is the true cause of ____, how does it explain both the IS and IS NOT information?
2.4.1.2. What assumptions have to be made?
2.4.2. Determine the most probable cause
2.4.2.1. Which possible cause best explains the IS and IS NOT information?
2.4.2.2. Which possible cause has the fewest, simplest, and most reasonable assumptions?
2.5. Confirm True Cause
2.5.1. Verify assumptions, observe, experiment, or try a fix and monitor
2.5.1.1. What can be done to verify any assumptions made?
2.5.1.2. How can this cause be observed at work?
2.5.1.3. How can we demonstrate the cause-and-effect relationship?
2.5.1.4. When corrective action is taken, how will results be checked?
2.6. Think Beyond the Fix
3. Decision Analysis
3.1. Clarify the Purpose
3.1.1. State the Decision
3.1.1.1. What do we need to decide?
3.1.1.2. What are we trying to do?
3.1.2. Develop objectives
3.1.2.1. What short and long term benefits or results do we want?
3.1.2.2. What resources should we use or save?
3.1.2.3. What restrictions influence this choice?
3.1.2.4. How does ____ influence this choice?
3.1.2.4.1. Management
3.1.2.4.2. Human Resources
3.1.2.4.3. Competition
3.1.2.4.4. Research
3.1.2.4.5. Equipment
3.1.2.4.6. Productivity
3.1.2.4.7. Policy
3.1.2.4.8. Law and Regulation
3.1.2.4.9. Cost
3.1.2.4.10. Time
3.1.2.4.11. Facilities
3.1.2.5. Which objectives need to be clarified by making them more specific?
3.1.3. Classify objectives into MUSTs and WANTs
3.1.3.1. YES to all three = MUST
3.1.3.1.1. Is this objective mandatory?
3.1.3.1.2. Does this objective have a set limit?
3.1.3.1.3. Is this objective realistic?
3.1.3.2. All other objectives are WANTs
3.1.3.3. Which MUST objectives should be reflected in the WANTs?
3.1.4. Weigh the WANTs
3.1.4.1. What is the relative importance of each WANT?
3.2. Evaluate Alternatives
3.2.1. Generate Alternatives
3.2.1.1. What are the different choices available?
3.2.2. Screen Alternatives through the MUSTs
3.2.2.1. Does this alternative meet each MUST limit?
3.2.3. Compare alternatives against the WANTs
3.2.3.1. How well do the alternatives perform against each WANT objective?
3.3. Assess Risks
3.3.1. Identify Adverse Consequences
3.3.1.1. What could go wrong, short and long term, if this alternative were chosen?
3.3.1.2. What are the implications of being close to a MUST limit?
3.3.1.3. What are the disadvantages associated with this alternative?
3.3.1.4. Where might information be invalid? What are the implications?
3.4. Make Decision
3.4.1. Make the Best Balanced Choice
3.4.1.1. Are we willing to accept the risk(s) to gain the benefit of this choice?
4. Potential Problem (Opportunity) Analysis
4.1. Identify Possible Problems (Opportunities)
4.1.1. State the Action
4.1.1.1. What is the end result to be achieved?
4.1.1.2. What actions need to be taken to reach the end result?
4.1.1.3. Which actions are critical?
4.1.2. List Potential Problems (Opportunities)
4.1.2.1. When we do this, what could go wrong (better than expected)?
4.1.2.2. What problems (opportunities) could this action cause?
4.1.2.3. Which ones pose the greatest threat (offer the greatest benefit) to your plan?
4.2. Identify Likely Causes
4.2.1. Consider Causes for the Potential Problem (Opportunity)
4.2.1.1. What could cause this potential problem (opportunity)? What else could cause...?
4.2.1.2. Which causes are most likely to cause the potential problem (opportunity)?
4.3. Take Preventative (Promoting) Action
4.3.1. How can we prevent or reduce (increase) the chances of this likely cause happening?
4.3.2. How can we keep this likely cause from creating the potential problem? (How can we ensure this likely cause will create the potential opportunity?)
4.4. Plan Contingent (Capitalising) Action and Set Triggers
4.4.1. Plan Actions to Reduce (Enhance) Likely Effects
4.4.1.1. What will we do if this potential problem (opportunity) happens?
4.4.1.2. What will minimise (maximise) the effects if the potential problem (opportunity) happens?
4.4.1.3. What can we do to recover (respond) as quickly, cheaply, and effectively as possible?
4.4.2. Set Triggers for Contingent (Capitalising) Actions
4.4.2.1. How will we know the potential problem (opportunity) has occurred?
4.4.2.2. What will cause the contingent (capitalising) action to start?