1. 11.4 Quantitative Risk Analysis
1.1. INPUTS
1.1.1. Risk Mgt Plan
1.1.2. Cost Mgt Plan
1.1.3. Schedule Mgt Plan
1.1.4. Risk Register
1.1.5. Enterprise env. factors
1.1.6. Org process assets
1.2. TOOLS&TECHNIQUES
1.2.1. Data gathering & representation techniques
1.2.1.1. Interviewing
1.2.1.1.1. 3Points estimates
1.2.1.2. Probability distributions
1.2.1.2.1. Triangular& beta distribution
1.2.2. Quantitative Risk analysis & Modeling techniques
1.2.2.1. Sensitivity Analysis
1.2.2.1.1. Tornado Diagram-risk taking
1.2.2.2. Expected monetary value analysis (EMV=Probability x Impact)
1.2.2.2.1. decision tree analysis
1.2.2.3. Modeling and Simulation
1.2.2.3.1. Monte-carlo techniques
1.2.3. Expert Judgment
1.3. OUTPUTS
1.3.1. Project Documents updates
1.3.1.1. probabilistic analysis of the projects
1.3.1.2. probability of achieving cost and time objectives
1.3.1.3. prioritized list of quantified risks
1.3.1.4. trends in quantitative risk analysis results
2. 11.5 Plan Risk Response
2.1. INPUTS
2.1.1. Risk Mgt Plan
2.1.2. Risk register
2.2. TOOLS&TECHNIQUES
2.2.1. Strategies for -ve Risks or Threats
2.2.1.1. Avoid
2.2.1.2. Transfer
2.2.1.3. Mitigate
2.2.1.4. Accept
2.2.2. Strategies for +ve Risks or Opportunities
2.2.2.1. Exploit
2.2.2.2. Enhance
2.2.2.3. Share
2.2.2.4. Accept
2.2.3. Contingent Response Strategies
2.2.4. Expert Judgment
2.3. OUTPUTS
2.3.1. Project Mgt Plan Updates
2.3.1.1. Schedule & Cost Mgt Plan
2.3.1.2. Quality Mgt Plan
2.3.1.3. Procurement Mgt Plan
2.3.1.4. HR Mgt Plan
2.3.1.5. Scope, schedule, cost Baseline
2.3.2. Project Doc Updates
2.3.2.1. Risk Owners & Assign responsibilities
2.3.2.2. Agreed response strategies
2.3.2.3. Assumptions Log Updates
2.3.2.4. Technical Doc Updates
2.3.2.5. Change Requests
3. 11.6 Control Risks
3.1. INPUTS
3.1.1. Project Mgt Plan
3.1.2. Risk register
3.1.3. Work Performance Data & Reports
3.2. TOOLS&TECHNIQUES
3.2.1. Risk reassessment
3.2.2. Risk Audits
3.2.3. Variance and trend Analysis
3.2.4. Tech Performance measurement
3.2.5. Reserve Analysis
3.2.6. Meetings
3.3. OUTPUTS
3.3.1. Work performance Information
3.3.2. Change requests
3.3.2.1. Recommended Corrective Actions
3.3.2.2. Recommended preventive Actions
3.3.3. Project Mgt Plan Updates
3.3.4. Project Doc Updates
3.3.4.1. Outcome of Risk reassessments,risk audits, and periodic risk reviews
3.3.4.2. Actual outcomes of the project's risks and of the risk responses
3.3.5. Org. Process Assets Updates
3.3.5.1. template for risk mgt plan
3.3.5.2. RBS
3.3.5.3. Lesson Learned
4. 11.1 Plan Risk
4.1. INPUTS
4.1.1. P. Mgt Plan
4.1.2. P.Charter
4.1.3. Stakeholder Register
4.1.4. Enterprise Env. Factors
4.1.5. Org. Process Assets
4.2. TOOLS&TECHNIQUES
4.2.1. Analytical Techniques
4.2.1.1. Understand & define overall risk
4.2.1.2. Stakeholders Risk Attitude
4.2.1.2.1. S. Risk Profile
4.2.1.3. Strategic Risk Exposure
4.2.1.3.1. Risk Scoring Sheet
4.2.2. Expert Judgement
4.2.2.1. Senior Mgt
4.2.2.2. Project Stakeholders
4.2.2.3. ex-PM worked on Same Area
4.2.2.4. SME
4.2.2.5. Industry Group/consultant
4.2.2.6. Professional & tech Asst.
4.2.3. Meetings
4.2.3.1. High Level Plans on how to conduct Risk Mgt
4.3. OUTPUTS
4.3.1. Risk Mgt Plan
4.3.1.1. Methodology
4.3.1.2. Roles & responsibility
4.3.1.3. Budgeting
4.3.1.4. Timing
4.3.1.5. Risk categories
4.3.1.5.1. RBS
4.3.1.6. Definition of Risk Probability & Impact
4.3.1.7. Probability & Impact Matrix
4.3.1.7.1. High
4.3.1.7.2. Low
4.3.1.7.3. Moderate
4.3.1.8. Revised Stakeholders tolerances
4.3.1.9. Reporting Format
5. 11.2 Identify Risks
5.1. INPUTS
5.1.1. Risk Mgt Plan
5.1.2. Cost Mgt Plan
5.1.3. Schedule Mgt Plan
5.1.4. Quality Mgt Plan
5.1.5. HR Plan
5.1.6. Scope Baseline
5.1.7. Activity Cost Est
5.1.8. Activity Duration Est
5.1.9. Stakeholder Register
5.1.10. Project documents
5.1.11. Procurement Documents
5.1.12. Enterprise env. factors
5.1.13. Org process assets
5.2. TOOLS&TECHNIQUES
5.2.1. Document Reviews
5.2.2. Info Gathering
5.2.2.1. Brainstorming
5.2.2.2. Delphi Techniques-consensus of experts
5.2.2.3. Interviewing
5.2.2.4. root cause analysis
5.2.3. Checklist Analysis
5.2.4. Assumptions Analysis
5.2.5. Diagramming Techniques
5.2.5.1. Ishikawa@Fishbone@cause-effect diagram
5.2.5.2. System/process flow chart
5.2.5.3. Influence diagram
5.2.6. SWOT Analysis
5.2.6.1. Strength,Weakness,Opportunities, Threats
5.2.7. Expert Judgment
5.3. OUTPUTS
5.3.1. Risk register
5.3.1.1. List of Identified risks
5.3.1.2. List of potential responses
6. 11.3 Qualitative Risk Analysis
6.1. INPUTS
6.1.1. Risk Mgt Plan
6.1.2. Scope Baseline
6.1.3. Risk register
6.1.4. Enterprise env. factors
6.1.5. Org. process assets
6.2. TOOLS&TECHNIQUES
6.2.1. Risk Probability & impact Assessment
6.2.2. probability and Impact Matrix
6.2.2.1. black-and-white matrix
6.2.2.2. Different shades of Grey - Darkest is High Risk
6.2.3. Risk Data Quality assessment
6.2.3.1. How useful the data
6.2.4. Risk Categorization
6.2.4.1. source of risk (RBS)
6.2.4.2. Area of project affected (WBS)
6.2.4.3. common root causes
6.2.5. Risk Urgency assessment
6.2.5.1. Time to affect risk response
6.2.5.2. symptoms & warning sign
6.2.5.3. risk rating
6.2.6. Expert judgment
6.3. OUTPUTS
6.3.1. Project Documents Updates
6.3.1.1. Risk register Updates
6.3.1.2. Assumptions Log updates