Global advertising agency industry
von Paul Schafer
1. Political
1.1. To 2050, international trade to quadruple , the next wave of "globalisation" (SMH, 2015).
1.2. To 2050, more interactivity; increasing public and private (multinational) trade and commerce; economic equity important; NGOs growth but less engagement of them; Danger of coalition and network power, governing and cooperation get harder (NGO Major Group, 2019, 2017; DNI, 2017; SMH, 2015; Bertelsmann, 2012; NIC, 2012).
1.3. To 2035, global governance and cooperation essential; multi-polarity or multi-nodal; UN and national governments less effective and more divergent; dissatisfaction; dishonesty (Chinese Government, 2021; Dennis, 2021; Schmertzing, 2021; WEF, 2021, 2020a, 2018; Union of International Associations, 2021; Andersson, 2019; ESPAS, 2019; IPSOS, 2019; Brass et al, 2018; NIC, 2017a, 2017b, 2017c; UN, 2017a, 2017b; Valskakis, 2010; EUISS, 2010).
1.4. 2030-2050 the UN role in sustainable development is mainly mass communication (UN, 2015).
2. Technological
2.1. To 2050, the internet of things (IoT) and artificial or augmented intelligence, technology and innovation as well as the shift to a low carbon economy are key drivers; all companies are digitally transformed and all industries interdependent; global standards and data are key; multiple new winners; EU / US convergence (FitchSolutions, 2020; Kaufmann et al, 2018; Publicis Groupe, 2017).
2.2. Internet advertising (and access), internet-enabled devices, change, quality (Marketline, 2021; Neff, 2021; NASDAQ OMX, 2017; ESPAS, 2019; Dow Jones, 2009).
2.3. Digital platforms: Choice, precision; on-demand TV (Neff, 2021; Karg, 2020; WARC 2020) .
2.4. From 2030 to 2035, technological discontinues, e.g., employment risked, lowered economic growth, intrusiveness reaches mostly everyone (WEF, 2021; NIC, 2017a, 2017b).
2.5. Regulated acess to secure big data, via digital platforms, can help solve the world's problems (WEF, 2021d).
3. Legal
3.1. Legal services firms need to provide business solutions, "additional expertise" (other disciplines) as core, law outsourced (Wilkins, 2018; Friedmann, 2017;; Friedmann, 2016, April 12, May 6).
3.2. The United Nations must change to adapt to new tasks and raise resources (O'Brien, 2017; Stephen, 2017; Deloitte, 2016). I read this as the global governance system, a network and coalitions of organisations.
3.3. "Machine statements of advice" and "machine statements of law" a possibility, although limitations (Walter, 2019).
3.4. Big data policing a possibility, but not now (Ferguson, 2017).
4. Ecological
4.1. Natural climate solutions; carbon sequestration and renewables, business and policy collaboration; sustainable growth possible by 2030 as is net zero emissions by 2050 (WEF, 2021e; SHELL, 2021; IEA, 2020; Hecht et al, 2015).
4.2. From 2030 to 2035, global shortage of resources; climate change, environment and health issues; any first world crisis makes us unsustainable, community a solution / fall-back (WEF, 2021; WEF and McKinsey & Company, 2021; Brown, 2017; NIC, 2017a, 2017b; Bertelsmann, 2012).
4.3. Innovation- driven advertising markets (Rainey, 2021).
5. Economic
5.1. In 2060, world trend real GDP growth declines to 2%; reduce transaction costs (The World Bank, 2021; World Bank Blogs, 2021; Guilmetta et al, 2018; OECD, 2018).
5.2. To 2030, global economic growth to cancel out national economic differences; China, India and Africa growth (ESPAS, 2019; WEF, 2018; NIC, 2017a, 2017b).
5.3. Growth is always possible when balanced with, social acceptance and ecological responsibility; unevolved political economy trade-offs threatening (Shehab et al., 2020; Andersson, 2019).
5.4. Vaccinations; growth in consumer income and spending, advertising spending are global industry growth drivers, (Marketline, 2021; IBISWorld, 2020).
5.5. Pandemic boon, more collaboration and CGI to cut advertising costs (Neff, 2021; Robinson, 2005).
5.6. Global advertising education (LaFerle et al., 2009).
5.7. Global growth industries (Shehab & Drzeniek, 2020).
5.8. Economies increasingly synchronised by coalition and network membership, and there are core and periphery groupings, but not inclusive; the global business cycle is increasingly less volatile; regional trading-blocks lessen that stability (Belke et al, 2017; He et al, 2012; IMG, 2007).
5.9. Invest in sustainable growth; creativity; R&I, openness; Nationally Determined Contributions not sufficient to counter climate change—global determinations are necessary; not biofuels; not dishonest protectionism; seas to swamp cities by 2100 (WEF, 2021b, 2020a, 2020b; Barattieri et al, 2021; EU, 2020, 2019; Goldman Sachs, 2019; Weifang et al, 2020; Audrey et al, 2018).
5.10. Localities have value communicated in their products, regardless of where the products are; global cities / supply chains need reforming to be more inclusive to global growth; colonial systems benefit the home country of origin and may have caused an OECD investment bias still present today, so invest outside the 37/195, rural areas too (Parnreiter, 2019; Sintserov, 2019; Bunker, 2003).
6. Societal
6.1. Humanisation, health first (ESPAS, 2019; SHELL, 2019)
6.2. In 2050, all world religions present, with lots more Muslims; Chinese, Spanish, English, Hindi-Urdu and Arabic the most spoken languages (PEW, 2017, 2015; Cactus, 2017).
6.3. Social media, via ethics, not / to safeguard democracy from neoliberalism (Reisach, 2020).
6.4. Advertising must be valued as a positive changer, for good (Rosengren et al, 2015; Cappo, 2003).
6.5. To 2050, interdependent organisations a must (WBSCD, 2020).
6.6. More slack, incorporate world-critical into mission-critical, shorter supply chains or supply chain interdependencies, and interpersonal communication (Deutsche Welle, 2020).
6.7. More, smaller, and single-parent OECD families; CSR- / nature- and productivity-driven consumer behaviour; virtuality; demand for experiences over products (Mao et al, 2019; Hajcowitz et al, 2012; OECD, 2011).
6.8. Through construction industry transformation, global society's future built environment can cope with mass urbanisation, mass ruralisation and elite new settlements; a new society on Mars, fully automated (ASCE, 2021; Control Solutions, 2021; Szocik et al, 2020; Engels et al, 2019; Campa et al, 2019).
6.9. Global demographic trends cancel out national ones, e.g., growing global middle class and ageing West; Population growth, especially in Africa, global urbanisation, increased energy required; Population decreases in some 50 other countries including the OECD (ESPAS, 2019; Ceccorulli et al, 2017; NIC, 2017d, Bertelsmann, 2012).
6.10. "Risk society", we are dominated by man-made bads, science is losing credibility, catastrophes are more likely; we feel less safe in the world, more protectionist (Baxter, 2020).
6.11. Society's employer class has failed in providing sustainable careers, causing many people to be counter-evolutionary. We need a planetary system that redesigns work around interdependencies, countries that is (Pritchard, 2015).
6.12. New tchnologies, such as 5G, quantum computing, artificial intelligence and biometrics, must be gotten beyond and their benefit to global society understood (Miles, 2019).