1. Distributions are important
1.1. Bell curves
1.1.1. Additive
1.1.2. Averaging
1.2. Stretched out bell curves (log-normal)
1.2.1. Multiplicative
1.3. Power laws
1.3.1. Preferential attachment
1.3.1.1. Positive feedback
1.3.1.2. e.g. cities
1.3.2. Random walk
1.3.2.1. e.g. lifespan of species
1.3.3. Self-organized criticality
1.3.3.1. e.g. Traffic in L.A.
1.3.4. If heights were distributed this way
1.3.4.1. 10000 people as tall as giraffes
1.3.4.2. 1 guy as tall as Burj tower
1.3.4.3. 170 million in the US 7 inches tall
1.3.5. Why does it matter?
1.3.5.1. There's going to be some people wildly successful
1.3.5.1.1. And a whole bunch not so much
1.3.5.2. Big winners are as much luck as they are skill
1.4. Understand each distribution
1.4.1. Logic
1.4.2. Structure
1.4.3. Function
2. Convexity and concavity
2.1. Convexity
2.1.1. Increasing returns
2.1.2. e.g. Preferential attachment
2.2. Concavity
2.2.1. e.g. adding workers in a team
2.3. In both these cases
2.3.1. Linear thinking is dangerous
2.3.2. Linear projections are dangerous
3. Wisdom hierarchy
3.1. Data
3.2. Information
3.2.1. How we structure data
3.3. Knowledge
3.3.1. Understanding pieces of information
3.3.1.1. Correlative
3.3.1.2. Causal
3.4. Wisdom
3.4.1. Which knowledges to bring on a particular problem
4. Individuals are limited
4.1. Even if you're the best you can
4.2. Even if you're a lifelong learner
4.3. You cannot beat collections of people
4.3.1. Having different ensembles of models
5. Know a bunch of models
5.1. Have an awareness
5.1.1. Don't have to be an expert
5.2. Know 20-30
5.2.1. But have a gestalt
5.3. Gives you robustness
5.3.1. Like a portfolio
5.3.2. Often much better than the average
5.4. Thinking tools
5.4.1. Force you to get the logic right
5.4.2. Think about what matters
5.4.2.1. Driving people's behaviors
5.4.2.2. How the behaviors interact
5.4.2.3. How they aggregate
5.4.2.4. How should people respond to that
6. Know your place in a complex world
6.1. Be a nimble thinker
6.1.1. Move across models
6.1.2. If you can't, you should go deep
6.2. World needs both kinds of people
6.2.1. Some are T
6.2.2. Some are ∏
6.3. Your success depends on you filling a niche
6.3.1. Could be connecting things
6.3.2. Pulling resources and ideas from different places
6.3.3. Niche could take all sorts of different forms
6.4. Finding your niche
6.4.1. You have to really love it
6.4.1.1. You've got to love the practice of it
6.4.2. You've got to have some innate ability
6.4.2.1. Example: some people are naturally good at dancing
6.4.3. You have to be able to in some sense connect those
6.4.3.1. To something useful, meaningful
6.4.3.2. You should convince yourself
6.4.3.2.1. And others
6.5. Ask yourself
6.5.1. What are my capacities?
6.5.2. Am I someone who is able to learn things deeply?
6.5.3. Am I able to learn a lot of stuff?
6.5.4. Then think about a strategy
6.5.4.1. For your human capital
7. Which models to prioritize and why?
7.1. Who are the relevant actors?
7.1.1. Single actor
7.1.1.1. e.g. buying a book
7.1.2. Multiple actors
7.1.2.1. e.g. investing decision
7.2. How rational is the person making the decision?
7.2.1. Repeated a lot: could be rational
7.2.1.1. Because people learn
7.2.2. Big decision by an org could be rational
7.2.3. vs. rule of thumb
7.2.3.1. "Standard operating procedure" within a large org
8. What are mental models?
8.1. Map reality to the clean, logical structures of math
8.2. Make sense of complexity
8.2.1. By throwing ensembles of models
9. Why diversity matters
9.1. People who know different parts
9.1.1. And different knowledge overlaps
9.1.2. And different models of how things work
9.1.3. "Cognitive diversity"
9.2. Can bring in much deeper understanding
9.3. Give a more holistic approach
10. Spatial vs Col. Blotto model
10.1. Spatial
10.1.1. There is an ideal point
10.1.2. Example: your ideal burrito
10.2. Col Blotto
10.2.1. Many fronts, or dimensions
10.2.1.1. The more the better
10.2.2. Example: car buying
10.2.2.1. More mpg
10.2.2.2. More legroom
10.2.2.3. Higher crash test scores
10.3. Example: failed a job interview
10.3.1. Spatial: I'm not ideal
10.3.2. Col Blotto: somebody beat me on a collection of fronts
10.3.3. There's no best thing you can do
10.3.3.1. Unless you know where the other person was
10.3.3.2. It may be that someone else was positioned better
10.3.4. Strategy
10.3.4.1. Spatial
10.3.4.1.1. Do I have the characteristics they're looking for?
10.3.4.2. Hedonic
10.3.4.2.1. Beat my competitors on as many things as possible
11. Some important models
11.1. Markov models
11.1.1. A set of states
11.1.1.1. Transition probabilities across them
11.1.1.2. System goes into a unique equilibrium
11.1.2. Means
11.1.2.1. History doesn't matter
11.1.2.2. One-time interventions don't matter
11.1.2.3. There's a vortex drawing it into one thing
11.1.3. How to fix
11.1.3.1. Create a new state
11.1.3.2. Or fundamentally change transition probabilities
11.2. Linear models
11.2.1. If it's not working well
11.2.1.1. Talk to people
11.2.1.2. Usually it's a missing feature
11.2.1.3. Put it back into the model
11.3. Colonel Blotto models
11.4. Lyapunov functions
11.5. Systems dynamic models
11.6. Simple signaling models
11.7. Local interaction models
11.7.1. It doesn't matter what you do
11.7.1.1. What matters is you do the same thing
11.7.1.2. that other people do
11.7.2. e.g. handshake
11.7.3. A culture is often a collection of such models
11.7.3.1. Not genetics
11.7.3.2. Not "character"
12. A meta-model
12.1. Perspective-taking
12.1.1. What does the problem look like through the lens of this person?
12.1.2. However, it's not like literature
12.1.2.1. There's no end game in literature
12.1.2.1.1. Every perspective is important in literature
12.1.2.2. If you're taking a decision
12.1.2.2.1. There's an end game
12.1.2.2.2. You only want to be inclusive to things that are actually going to help you do
13. Collective Intelligence
13.1. Experiment
13.1.1. Physicists
13.1.2. Hayekians (decentralized market)
13.1.3. Bees (do the equivalent of waggle dance)
13.2. On an easy problem and a problem with five peaks
13.2.1. the bees did just as well as physicists
13.2.2. bees can take a derivative!
13.3. When it's super hard the market is not going to work
13.3.1. You need coordination