1. 4 Equivalence
1.1. Anti fragile gains from these
1.1.1. Video
1.1.1.1. Nassim Taleb - "The Black Swan"
1.1.2. Uncertainty, variability, imperfect, incomplete knowledge, change, chaos, volatility, disorder, entropy, time, the unknown, randomness, turmoil, stressors, error
1.1.3. image
1.1.3.1. list
1.2. Inteventionism
1.2.1. Video
1.2.1.1. Nassim Taleb - "The Black Swan"
1.2.2. If you choke an anti fragile system with control this will destroy the system
1.2.2.1. Example/ Forrest fires
1.2.2.2. If you grow up a child in a steril environment
1.2.2.3. Bailing out companies
1.2.2.4. Graph
1.2.2.4.1. Graph
2. 3 How to predict future Crisis
2.1. video
2.1.1. Nassim Taleb - "The Black Swan"
2.2. I can!t predict the future
2.3. If some one using predictive methods and building fragile items based on this predictive methods gonna blow up
2.4. Any economic number
2.5. When people are very predictive they build fragile items
2.6. The lindy effect
2.6.1. video
2.6.1.1. The Lindy Effect Explained in One Minute: From Albert Goldman to Nassim Taleb, & Gold to... Bitcoin?
2.6.2. Things that get stronger with time. Books and ideas
3. 5 How to detect Fragility
3.1. Video
3.1.1. Nassim Taleb - "The Black Swan"
3.2. King's story who had to punish his son with crashing him with a big stone. Instead they cut the stone to small pebbles.
3.3. Fragile does not have linearity
3.3.1. If you increase one value the impact increases more
3.3.1.1. Graph
3.3.2. Short gama / short volatility
3.4. Convex VS Concave
3.4.1. graph
3.4.2. Graph
3.4.3. Example
3.4.3.1. If your upside bigger you are convex opposite means you are concave
3.4.4. Video
3.4.4.1. Nassim Taleb - "The Black Swan"
3.5. Test your system increase a parameter with one percent and decrease a parameter with one percent. And find out if you are concave or convex
3.5.1. graph
3.5.2. video
3.5.2.1. Nassim Taleb - "The Black Swan"
3.6. Size Effects
3.6.1. video
3.6.1.1. Nassim Taleb - "The Black Swan"
3.6.2. Graph
3.6.2.1. graph
3.6.3. When you get larger you may be efficient but when there is a squeeze you harm more.
3.6.4. If you have a elephant as a pet and if you have a shortage of water you will pay more for a liter of water
3.6.5. My personal addition
3.6.5.1. Square–cube law - Wikipedia
4. 6 Skin in the game
4.1. video
4.1.1. Nassim Taleb - "The Black Swan"
4.2. Two classes of people
4.2.1. Looser from fragility
4.2.2. winners from fragility
4.3. Stok market example
4.3.1. Stock market losses three trillion
4.3.2. The incentives to company managers is 400 billion dollars
4.4. Hamurabi's Law
4.4.1. Hamurabi
4.4.1.1. Hamurabi
4.4.2. If a house collapse and kills the owner. Kill the architect
4.5. Skin in the game
4.6. Citibank example
4.6.1. Writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb noted that Rubin "collected more than $120 million in compensation from Citibank in the decade preceding the banking crash of 2008. When the bank, literally insolvent, was rescued by the taxpayer, he didn't write any check—he invoked uncertainty as an excuse."
4.7. Medical error / latrogenics
4.7.1. Video
4.7.1.1. Nassim Taleb - "The Black Swan"
4.7.2. Graph
4.7.2.1. graph
4.7.3. Iatrogenics
4.7.3.1. Iatrogenesis is the causation of a disease, a harmful complication, or other ill effect by any medical activity, including diagnosis, intervention, error, or negligence
5. 2 The Triad / Three categories to replace forecasting
5.1. Video
5.1.1. Nassim Taleb - "The Black Swan"
5.2. The Triad list
5.2.1. Triad Maping
5.2.1.1. The Triad list
5.2.1.2. FS Blog you should visit
5.2.2. Anti Fragile
5.2.2.1. Gains from disorder
5.2.3. Robust
5.2.3.1. doesn't care
5.2.4. Fragile
5.2.4.1. Breaks under stress
5.3. The central problem is You could not forecast Blackswan events
5.3.1. empirically it is impossible to find blackswans
5.4. Examples
5.4.1. The book
5.4.1.1. video
5.4.1.1.1. Nassim Taleb - "The Black Swan"
5.4.1.2. The book exaple
5.4.1.2.1. The real book is more anti fragile and it is 505 years old
5.4.1.3. Technology increases fragilty
6. 1 The Opposite of Fragile
6.1. video
6.1.1. Nassim Taleb - "The Black Swan"
6.2. Anti Fragile
6.2.1. There is no word in vocabulary for anti fragile
6.2.1.1. It is a problem
6.2.2. In the era of Homer there is no word for blue. People are not color blind but they are blind from the culture perspective
6.2.2.1. video
6.2.2.1.1. Nassim Taleb - "The Black Swan"
6.2.3. Three types in time series
6.2.3.1. Fragile
6.2.3.2. Robust
6.2.3.3. Anti Fragile,
6.3. Greek Mythology
6.3.1. Hydra, you cut one head there comes two
6.3.1.1. anti fragile
6.3.2. Phoenix is robust when you kill it, it will comeback
6.3.2.1. robust
7. Q & A session
7.1. Probability
7.1.1. Avoid to sell probability
7.1.2. It causes iatrogenics
7.1.3. Video
7.1.3.1. Nassim Taleb - "The Black Swan"
7.2. Have alternatives
7.2.1. Video
7.2.1.1. Nassim Taleb - "The Black Swan"
7.3. Money Lending
7.3.1. Video
7.3.1.1. Nassim Taleb - "The Black Swan"
7.3.2. Lending comes when companies do not need money
7.3.3. We do not need debt to grow
7.3.4. Debt causes some people to be richer
7.4. Debt
7.4.1. video
7.4.1.1. Nassim Taleb - "The Black Swan"
7.4.2. Government debt is harmful
7.4.3. The world richer is then 10 years ago but we barrow
7.4.4. If you want have a healthy economy.
7.4.4.1. prevent governments running deficits.
7.4.4.2. Decentralized management is the key Municipalities are better at forecasting expenditures
8. More Content
8.1. Blog
8.1.1. NassimTaleb.org | Nassim Taleb News Site