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Chapter 7
by J Graham
# Chapter 7

## Section 7.7

### Confusion of the Inverse

### Coincidences

### The Gambler's Fallacy

## Section 7.1

### Random Circumstance - One in
which the outcome is
unpredictable.

### Probability - is a number between 0 and 1
that is assigned to a possible outcome of a
random circumstance.

## Section 7.5

### Hints & Advice

### Steps for Finding Probabilites

### Two Way Tables

### Tree Diagrams

## Section 7.3

### Assigning Probabilities to Simple
Events

### Complementary Events

### Mutually Exclusive Events

### Independent and Dependent Events

### Conditional Probabilites

## Section 7.4

### Rule One

### Rule Two

### Rule Three

### Rule Four

### Sampling with and Without
Replacement

## Section 7.2

### The Relatice Frequency
Interpretation of Probability
situations

### The Personal Probability Interpretation

## Section 7.6

### Simulation

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3 pieces of Information to determine probability of a positive test result being accurate., #1, #2, #3

A coincidence is a surprising concurrence of events, perceived as meaningfully related, with no apparent causal connection.

Two Conditions for Valid Probabilities

Probabilities for Equally Likely Simple Events

Key Terms, Sample Space, Event, Simple Event

One event is the complement of another event if the two events do not contain any of the same simple events and together they cover the entire sample space. For an event A, the notation A^c represents the complement of A.

Two events are mutually exclusive they do not contain any of the same simple events (outcomes). The term disjoint is also used in the same regard.

Independent

Dependent

The event B, given that the event A occurs, is the long-run relative frequency with which event B occurs when circumstances are such that a also occurs. This probability is written as P(B|A)

Larger samples do not require replacement, as the sample size would make the outcome insigificant.

With Replacement

Without Replacement

Buying lottery tickets regularly and observing how often you win

Drawing a student's name out of a hat and seeing how often a particular student is selected

Commuting to work daily and observing whether or not a certain traffic signal is red when we encounter it.

Surveying many adults and determining what proportion smokes

Observing births and noting how often the baby is a female