1. Overconfidence
1.1. 19. Illusion of Understanding
1.2. 20. Illusion of Validity
1.2.1. Illusion of Skill / Competence
1.3. 21. Intuition vs. Formulas
1.3.1. Formulas are not in favour...
1.3.1.1. ...even though even simple ones tend to be better as sophisticated forecasts from experts
1.4. 22. Expert Intuition: when to trust?
1.4.1. Gaining Knowledge (how)
1.4.2. Feedback (how)
1.5. 23. Outside View
1.5.1. Internal View is tempting an blurring
1.5.2. Planning Fallacy
1.6. 24. Optimism, the Capitalism Machine
1.6.1. Ignorance for competition
2. Two Selves
2.1. 35. Two Selves
2.1.1. Wantability (rational) vs. Experience (Entscheidungs / Erfahrungsnutzen)
2.2. 36. Life as a Story
2.3. 37. Experienced Well-Being
3. Decissions
3.1. 25. Bernoullis Errors
3.2. 26. Prospect Theory
3.2.1. Adaptation Level
3.2.2. Diminishing Sensitivity
3.2.3. Loss Aversion
3.3. 27. Endowment Effect
3.4. 28. Bad Events
3.4.1. Negative Dominance
3.5. 29. Fourfold Pattern
3.5.1. Allais Paradox
3.6. 30. Rare Events
3.6.1. Overestimating probabilities of unlikely events
3.6.2. Overweighting unlikely events in decisions
3.7. 31. Risk Policies
3.8. 32. Keeping Score
3.8.1. Disposition Effect
3.8.2. Sunk Cost Fallacy
3.8.3. Escalation of Commitment
3.8.4. Agency Problem
3.8.5. Regret
3.8.6. Responsibility
3.9. 33. Reversals
3.10. 34. Frames and Reality
3.10.1. Emotional Framing
3.10.2. Good Framing
4. Bias
4.1. Easier to identify on others
5. Two Systems
5.1. System One
5.1.1. Insinct
5.1.2. Hardwired
5.1.3. Fast
5.2. System Two
5.2.1. Rational
5.2.2. Human
5.2.3. Slow
5.3. 2. Mental Effort
5.3.1. Pupils
5.3.1.1. +50%
5.3.2. HF
5.3.2.1. +7bpm
5.3.3. Add-1
5.3.3.1. 5294
5.3.3.2. 6305
5.3.4. Add-3
5.4. 3. Association Machine
5.4.1. Priming
5.4.1.1. System 1 builds a Story; System 2 believes it...
5.5. 4. Cognitive Ease
5.5.1. Illusion off...
5.5.1.1. ...Memory
5.5.1.2. ...Truth
5.5.1.2.1. Mere-Exposure-Effect
5.5.1.3. We need to believe stuff that has been repeated many times
5.5.2. Repetition, clarity, priming, good mood leads to EASE and feels: common, true, good, effortless
5.6. 6. Norms, Surprise and Reasons
5.7. 7. Halo Effekt
5.7.1. WYSIATI - What you see is all there is
5.7.2. Halo-Efect by Philip Rosenzweig
5.7.3. What you see is all there is. You are unaware of the amount of non-available, relevant information.
5.8. 8. Conclusions
5.8.1. Mental Pump Gun
6. Heuristics and Biases
6.1. Natural Pattern Seekers
6.1.1. Reduces Complexity
6.1.2. Ingnores Randomness
6.2. 11. Anchors
6.2.1. Adaptation
6.2.2. Priming
6.2.3. Indexing
6.3. 12. Availability Heuristic
6.4. Affect Heuristic
6.5. Representativeness
6.5.1. Mind the Base Line!