1. Inventory levels
2. Oscillatory movement of demand
3. Increase in uncertainty
3.1. Amplification of demand
4. Increasing distortion in demand
5. Conclusion
5.1. It generates imbalance
5.1.1. Demand
5.1.2. Offer
5.2. Affectation
5.2.1. 0 There is no disturbance
5.2.2. 1 Total disturbance
5.3. It affects
5.3.1. Operational planning
5.3.1.1. Medium and long term
5.3.1.1.1. Average demand is not maintained
6. Definition
7. Inadequate adjustments
8. In production or supply
9. Difference between peaks and valleys
10. False expectations
11. Delay in information received
12. Increase non-compliance indexes
12.1. Increase non-compliance indexes
13. Required resources
14. Operation and projection factors.
15. Influence of the "bullwhip effect" method
15.1. Simple exponential smoothing.
15.1.1. When
15.1.1.1. Memory limited to a forecast period
15.2. Exponential smoothing Holt-winters
15.2.1. When
15.2.1.1. Tendency to grow or decrease
16. History
16.1. 1961
16.2. Jay Forrester
16.2.1. Cross-claim increases
16.2.1.1. supplier
16.2.1.2. Buyer
17. Methods of attenuation and measurement.
17.1. Inventory management
17.2. EOQ economic order quantity
17.3. Analysis of the bullwhip effect in the bds of whiteners
18. Causes
18.1. Inefficiencies in the operational management of the CdS
18.1.1. Underestimated response times
18.1.2. High logistic costs
18.1.3. Out of phase metrics in the SKUs
18.2. Fluctuations in orders
18.2.1. From
18.2.1.1. Market conditions
18.2.1.2. Performance of the agents that make up the CdS
18.3. Biases introduced in the lawsuit
18.3.1. Changes in the demand sampling rate.
18.3.2. Non-stationary market demand
18.3.3. Changes in sales prices by the client agent
18.4. Changes in times
18.4.1. Of supply
18.4.2. Supply stochastics
18.5. Inappropriate logistical practices
18.5.1. Variable size of replenishment orders
18.5.2. Complementary or substitute products
18.5.3. Changes in the levels of coverage of inventories
18.6. Alteration of the conditions of the distribution network
18.6.1. Changes in the prices of logistics activities
18.6.2. Changes in the number of client agents dependent on a step
19. Amplification effect
20. Repercussions
20.1. Paradox of Time
20.1.1. define
20.1.1.1. The delay in the flow of information
20.2. Strategies to optimize the operation
20.2.1. Delay orders to your buyers (suppliers)
20.2.1.1. Increase the size of orders
20.2.1.2. Incurring lower shipping and transportation costs
20.2.1.3. Accumulate higher levels of information on demand
21. Seasonality and demand trend
21.1. Trend
21.1.1. Persistent movement of demand over time.
21.1.1.1. It is presented by
21.1.1.1.1. Changes in technology
21.1.1.1.2. Scientific advances
21.1.1.1.3. Increases in population
21.2. Seasonality
21.2.1. Regular periodic fluctuations
21.2.1.1. They originate by
21.2.1.1.1. Condiciones climatológicas
21.2.1.1.2. Social customs
21.2.1.1.3. Religious customs