1. Inversion
1.1. Avoiding stupidity is easier than trying to be brilliant.
1.1.1. What are you trying to achieve?
1.1.2. What would guarantee that you'll fail to achieve it?
1.1.2.1. This is the inversion
1.1.3. Consider solutions to avoid this failure
1.2. Not "How can I help my company?"
1.2.1. "What's hurting my company the most and how can I avoid it?"
2. Doublespeak
2.1. People often say the opposite of what they mean, esp in political language
3. Theory of Constraints
3.1. A system is only as strong as its weakest point
3.1.1. Focus on the bottleneck
4. Preference Falsification
4.1. People lie about their true opinions and conform to socially acceptable preferences instead
5. Faustian Bargain
5.1. A man once sold his soul to a demon in exchange for knowledge
5.1.1. At first it seemed like a smart trade
5.1.2. But the man lost in the long run
5.1.3. What the man lost was more valuable than what he earned
6. Mimetic Theory of Desire
6.1. Humans are like sheep
6.1.1. We don't know what we want, so we imitate each other
7. Mimetic Theory of Conflict
7.1. People who are similar are more likely to fight than people who are different
7.1.1. Civil Wars and family feuds create the worst conflicts
8. Talent vs Genius
8.1. Society is good at training talent
8.1.1. But terrible at cultivating genius
8.2. Talented people are good at hitting targets
8.2.1. Geniuses find targets others can't see
9. Competition is for Losers
9.1. Avoid competition
9.1.1. Stop copying what everybody else is doing
9.1.2. If you work at a for-profit company, work on problems that would not otherwise be solved
10. Secrets are Hidden in Plain Sight
10.1. The best ideas can come from things that are so well-known that they aren't well-seen
11. The Never-Ending Now
11.1. The structure of the Internet and social media pulls people away from age-old wisdom
11.1.1. We live in an endless cycle of ephemeral content consumption
12. Demand Curves Slope Down
12.1. The harder something is to do, the fewer people will do it
13. Look for Things that Don't Make Sense
13.1. When it's confusing, your model of the world is wrong
13.1.1. Big opportunities won't make sense until it's too late to profit from them
14. The Wisdom of Paradox
14.1. Logic is the key to scientific truths
14.1.1. But paradoxes are the key to psychological truths
14.1.2. When you find two opposites that are both true, start exploring
15. Law of Shitty Click-Through Rates
15.1. Most marketing strategies have a short window of success
15.1.1. Banner ads
15.1.2. Newsletters
16. Russell Conjugation
16.1. Journalists often change the meaning of a sentence by replacing one word with a synonym
16.1.1. Estate tax vs death tax
17. Opportunity Cost
17.1. By reading this, you're choosing not to read something else
17.1.1. Doing one thing requires giving up another
18. Overton Window
18.1. You can control thought without limiting speech
18.1.1. Define limits of acceptable thought
18.1.2. Allow lively debate within these barriers
19. Planck's Principle
19.1. Science doesn't progress because people change their views
19.1.1. As old generations pass away, new ideas are accepted
20. Bike-Shed Effect
20.1. A group of people working on a project will fight over the most trivial ideas
20.1.1. They'll ignore what's complicated
21. Table Selection
21.1. You shouldn't compete against the best people
21.1.1. If you want to win, pick an easy table and nail your execution
22. Goodhart's Law
22.1. When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure
23. Gall's Law
23.1. A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked
23.1.1. A complex system designed from scratch never works
23.1.2. It cannot be patched up to make it work
23.1.3. You have to start over with a working simple system
24. Hock Principle
24.1. Simple, clear purpose and principles give rise to complex and intelligent behavior
24.1.1. Complex rules and regulations give rise to simple and stupid behavior
25. Parkinson's Law
25.1. Work expands to fill the time available
25.1.1. People don't want to look like they're lazy
25.1.2. So they find extra tasks to tackle, even if they're trivial
25.1.3. If you have six months to complete a project, it'll take six months
25.1.3.1. Set deadlines accordingly
26. Second Law of Thermodynamics
26.1. The world tends towards disorder
27. Paradox of Specificity
27.1. Focus isn't as constraining as it seems
27.1.1. Narrowing your aperture can expand your horizons
28. Emergence
28.1. When things interact, they often birth new, unpredictable forms
28.1.1. The sum total of a system is more than its component parts
29. Occam's Razor
29.1. Trust the lowest complexity answer
30. Hickam's Dictum
30.1. In a complex system, problems usually have more than one cause
31. Hormesis
31.1. A low dose of something can have the opposite effect of a high dose
31.1.1. A little bit of stress wakes you up, but a lot of stress is bad for you
32. Robustness Principle
32.1. Be conservative in what you do
32.1.1. Be liberal in what you accept from others
33. Legibility
33.1. We are blind to what we cannot measure
33.1.1. Not everything that counts can be measured
33.1.2. Not everything that can be measured counts
33.1.3. But people manage what they can measure
33.1.3.1. So society repeats the same mistakes
34. Horseshoe Theory
34.1. Extreme opposites tend to look the same
35. Availability Cascade
35.1. A self-reinforcing cycle that creates collective beliefs
35.1.1. Lots of people to adopt it not because it's true
35.1.2. But because it's popular
36. Creativity Begins at the Edge
36.1. Change starts away from the spotlight
36.1.1. Then it moves towards the cneter
37. The Copernican Principle
37.1. The more we learn about astronomy, the less it seems that earth is special
38. Personal Monopoly
38.1. Corporations reward conformity, but the Internet rewards people who are unique
38.1.1. Find your own style, then run with it
38.1.2. Create intellectual real estate for yourself
39. The Paradox of Consensus
39.1. Too much agreement can imply a systematic error in the process
40. Penny Problem Gap
40.1. Economists assume demand is linear
40.1.1. But people's behavior totally changes once an action costs money
41. The Invisible Hand
41.1. Markets aggregate knowledge
41.1.1. Prices are a signal wrapped in an incentive
42. Base Rate
42.1. The average outcome for an event over time
42.1.1. If you're starting a business, avoid the restaurant business
42.1.2. Margins are low and competition is high
43. Circle of Competence
43.1. Definte the limits of your knowledge
43.1.1. Be clear about what you know
43.1.2. And what you don't know
44. Convexity
44.1. If you want to be lucky, look for opportunities with big upsides
44.1.1. And low downsides
45. The Go-for-it Window
45.1. 2007 was the perfect time to launch the iPhone
45.1.1. But Google Glass launched too early
46. Via Negativa
46.1. When we have a problem, our natural instinct is to add a new habit or purchase a fix
46.1.1. But sometimes you can improve your life by taking things away
47. The Medium is the Message
47.1. We pay too much attention to what's being said
47.1.1. But the medium is more impactful
48. Resource Curse
48.1. Countries rich in natural resources tend to have less economic growth
49. Paradox of Abundance
49.1. The average quality of information is getting worse
49.1.1. But the best stuff is getting better
49.1.2. Markets of abundance:
49.1.2.1. Bad for median consumer
49.1.2.2. Good for conscious consumers
50. The Map is not the Territory
50.1. Reality will never match the elegance of theory
50.1.1. All models have inconsistencies, but some are still useful
50.1.2. Some maps are useful because they're inaccurate