1. Implications of and vulnerability to climate change depends on location rather than economic development (Topic 4B)
1.1. Marine Ecosystems
1.1.1. Vulnerable to coral bleaching due to higher sea surface temperatures
1.1.1.1. 80% of caribbeans reefs have been bleached adn 50% in indonesia
1.1.2. Sea ice is shrinking decimating the base of the marine food chain
1.1.2.1. Ring and harp seals use the sea ice to rest and give birth to raise pups, now exposed on the ice so are hunted by polar bears
1.1.2.2. Reduction in sea ice has reduced polar bear population by 2/3 affecting the whole food chain
1.1.3. Inuit hunters of the arctic depend on hunting marine mammals
1.1.3.1. If the ice shrinks then it makes hunting hazardous as the population of killer whales increase
1.2. Terrestrial Ecosystems
1.2.1. Habitat change as a result of expansion of wetlands and cloud forest range migrating to higher elevations, eventually being squeezed out of existence
1.2.1.1. Tundra is being replaced by forest
1.2.1.1.1. This is affecting migration patterns of caribou
1.2.1.2. This puts habitat dependent species at risk
1.2.2. 90% of tropical forest in western hemisphere will have been lost by 2060
1.2.2.1. 2-3 times faster temp change in the arctic, greenland ice sheet could completley melt in 1000 years if temps rise 3 degrees
1.3. Human Health
1.3.1. Maleria risk is increasing across central europe, but these places have the infratructure to deal with sickness
1.3.1.1. 800,000 die from malaria annually
1.3.1.1.1. WHO predicts that climate change will cause 250,000 more deaths between 2030 and 2050
1.3.2. LIDCs do not have infrastructure to deal with Climate change
1.3.2.1. Higher temps increase risk of food contamination
1.3.2.1.1. Also higher temperatures will cause a 15% reduction in cereal crops, lidcs do not have access to GM crops
1.3.3. Dengue fever is now present in 28 US states caused by climate change stimulating transmission of waterbourne disease
1.3.3.1. Lymes disease is transmitted by ticks and is thriving in the US with water conditions provided by climate change
1.4. Extreme Weather
1.4.1. Extreme weather events are costly and impact the developing wolrd to a greater extent
1.4.1.1. Hurricane Ian caused 65 billion USD in insured damages, developing countries do not have the insurance systems to come close to this
1.4.1.1.1. Hence they are more vulnerable and the lack of economic development may trigger political instability as a result of an extreme event
1.4.2. European Heatwave and UK july 2022
1.4.2.1. 40 degree heat caysing 1000 excess deaths in the UK 60,000 across europe
1.4.3. Floods in India and Pakistan in march 2022
1.4.3.1. 33 million displaced, 90 deaths and a 35% reduction in crop yields across parts of india
1.4.4. Siberia 2022
1.4.4.1. Record temperatures of 38 degrees north of arctic circle
1.5. Vulnerable Environments
1.5.1. Rainy season in semi arrid environments will shorten
1.5.1.1. Rainforests will be drier and grassland like the Prairie in the USA will encounter extensive droughts
1.5.2. Sahel
1.5.2.1. Semi arrid environment that will be affected by drought
1.5.2.1.1. 300 million live in the sahel, a 4 degree rise in temps by 2080 would cause water scarcity and force migration
1.5.2.2. Crop Yields will decline by 30% due to climate change
1.5.2.2.1. Affecting rural subsistence communities who depend on rainfall for cultivation to a greater extent
1.5.3. Prairie, USA
1.5.3.1. Also experiencing greater droughts however the US can adapt
1.5.3.1.1. Genetically modified drought resistent crops make up 70 million hectares accounting for 30% of total crops in USA
1.5.4. Nepal
1.5.4.1. More vulnerable due to low economic development
1.5.4.1.1. Himilayan galciers shrunk 40% in 400 years , displacing 13,000 annually due to climate change
2. Assess the success of mitigation strategies to cut global emissions of greenhouse gases (Topic 4C)
2.1. Energy efficiency
2.1.1. Domestic demand accounts for 1/3 of primary energy
2.1.1.1. Service based activities like offices account for 16%
2.1.2. Government providing a 7500 heat pump grant and targets the installation of 600,000 pumps
2.1.2.1. £6 billion allocated for energy efficiency decarbonisation programme in 2023
2.1.2.1.1. A new £400 million grant is launching in 2025
2.1.3. Grants are granted to households energy rating D or below, 50% of homes in the UK have C or above, that was just 14% in 2010
2.1.3.1. Government provide grants to increase scale of energy conservation
2.1.3.1.1. But these grants often do not cover the entire cost of installations like efficient heat pumps entirely
2.2. Fuel Shifts
2.2.1. UK to achieve 15% target for renewable electricity production by 2020
2.2.1.1. Solar energy promoted by green subsidies, and the harnessing of tidal energy in swansea bay
2.2.1.1.1. UK energy requirement is 48GW , coal generates 2.1, gas 28 and wind 24GW with plans to increase wind capacity to 40GW by 2030
2.2.2. Energy use fell 6.6% in 2014 despite 3% economic grwoth
2.2.2.1. UK continues to rely on fossil fuels for 86% of its energy
2.3. Carbon Capture and Storage
2.3.1. Extracts CO2 emitted by coal burning power stations and transfers it to long term storage underground
2.3.1.1. Has the potential to durastically reduce co2 emissions
2.3.2. Drax powerstation has the largest decarbonisation programme in europe
2.3.2.1. However the scale of capture is vastly inferior to the rate of release
2.3.2.1.1. The technology is also expensive, drax cost £1 billion, therefore government support is necessary for most schemes
2.4. Geoengineering
2.4.1. Fertilisation of the oceans
2.4.1.1. Nutrients like iron stimulate photosynthesis and growth of phytoplankton
2.4.1.1.1. Extracting a large amount of carbon to mitigate climate change
2.4.2. Enhanced weathering by breaking large amounts of rock to increase their surface area increasing the silicate materials reaction with air absorbing co2 to form carbonates resulting in long term storage on the ocean floor
2.4.2.1. Artificial trees use a plastic resin to capture and compress co2, extracting up to 700kg carbon per tree per day
2.5. Forestry
2.5.1. Providing incentives for developing countries to conserve forests and reduce co2 emissions
2.5.1.1. UNREDD scheme aims to reduce the 20% of co2 emissions that comes from deforestation
2.5.1.1.1. Isnt working yet, requiring 100 million USD to bridge the current gap in funding
2.5.2. Deforestation countinues to increase, hitting 3.8 million hectares last year
3. 'Physical Factors Influence Climate Change more than Human Factors. Discuss' (Topic 1 and 2)
3.1. Physical factors during the Mid Cretaceous
3.1.1. 3 to 6 times more co2 than current era due to volcanism and weathering of carbonaceous rock
3.1.1.1. Mid cretaceous was 100 million years ago, average temperatures were 6 degrees higher
3.1.1.1.1. Results in a positive feedback cycle including the acidification of oceans, less co2 diffuses into ocean
3.1.2. Temperatures remained high for a long time scale, 100 million years, with no human influence
3.1.2.1. This climate can be dated with sea floor sediments and lake sediments in the form of pollen grain
3.2. Physical factors resulting in Eocene Thermal Maximum
3.2.1. Physical factors influenced the climate like flood basalts 55 million years ago
3.2.1.1. Iceland flood basalt covered 100,000km2 area
3.2.1.1.1. Released a lot of co2 enhancing decomposition and further releasing co2 as oceans acidify
3.3. Glaciation of Antarctica and Ocean Circulation
3.3.1. Oligocene epoch 35 million years ago
3.3.1.1. Continental drift moved antarctica to the poles, it became insulated by circumpolar current
3.3.1.1.1. CO2 levels dropped from 1000ppm to 600 as snow albedo is 0.95
3.3.1.2. Climate can be dated using sea floor sediments, fomanifera show 170 million years worth of data
3.3.1.2.1. Each fominifera thrive in different water conditions
3.3.2. Formation of the Isthimus of Panama closed the gateway between pacific and atlantic
3.3.2.1. As a result evaporation increased, further increasing precipitation, prevailaing wind deposited more precipitation in the north atlantic, reducing the salinity of the water, reducing the downwelling of warm water in the arctic, weakening the gulf stream
3.3.2.1.1. Led to positive feedback as sea ice expanded, ie oceans absorb more co2, reduction in temperature
3.3.2.2. This was a slow process that occured over a long period of time
3.3.2.2.1. However it did have a great impact on the climate
3.4. Physical factors during the Quaternary
3.4.1. Milankovitch Cycles
3.4.1.1. Eccentricity varied earths orbit over 100,000 years, at maximum there is a 30% reduction is solar radiation
3.4.1.1.1. Glaciations occur every 100,000 years
3.4.1.2. Obliquity occurs every 40,000 years as earths titl changes from 22 degrees to 24.5
3.4.1.2.1. When closer to 22 snow and ice accumulated in the winter doesnt melt in the summer
3.4.2. Can be measured using ice core data
3.4.2.1. Abundance of 16O is easier to evaporate, so if theres more then climate was cooler
3.5. Anthropogenic Increase and China
3.5.1. Rapid development after 2003 as a result of fossil fuel usage and urbanisation
3.5.1.1. Total coal emissions is 11.5 gigatones, 75% of total global emissions come from cities
3.5.1.1.1. 700 million urban residents in 2011, 900 million in 2021
3.5.2. Anthropogenic increases reislted in more longwave radiation being absorbed by GHG
3.5.2.1. CO2 in the atmosphere has increased from 280ppm in 1800 to 417ppm in 2023
3.5.2.1.1. 2016 was the 40th consecutive year for increase in temperatures
3.5.3. Arctic sea ice has declined at 13% per decade
3.5.3.1. As a result of human activity
3.6. Anthropogenic Increase and UK
3.6.1. UK kickstarted industrialisation, having easy access to coal in the 18th century
3.6.1.1. UK starting to decarbonise signing multiple international olbligations like the 2050 target
3.6.1.1.1. Coal production in the uk was main energy source, peaking a 137 million tonnes in 1916
3.6.2. UK now gets 47% of its natural gas from domestic sources, 31% from pipeline
3.6.2.1. UK has a low emissions per capita
3.6.3. £6 billion committment to decarbonising britains homes
3.6.3.1. 84% of homes now have an energy efficiency rating of A or B
3.6.3.1.1. Solar and wind renewable capacity is now 35GW with the potential to prodvide 75% of our energy over time
4. Predicting what the future will hold for the carbon cycle is essentual when responding to climate change. Discuss (Topic 4A)
4.1. Understanding the Importance of the Carbon Cycle
4.1.1. Understanding carbon cycle allows us to effectively model and predict climate change
4.1.1.1. Carbon stores like ocean sediments lock away rock to help maintain atmospheric co2 levels
4.1.1.1.1. Decomposition and oxidation ensure that co2 is recycled rapidly, replenishing co2 available for photosynthesis
4.1.1.2. CO2 and CH4 absorb long wave radiation contributing to natural greenhouse effect
4.1.1.2.1. Understanding the diffusion of co2 from oceans to atmosphere
4.2. 2X Positive and Negative Feedback strategies
4.2.1. Predicting the future is not as easy as we think as a result of the rate of feedback being unknown
4.2.1.1. Increased evaporation from ocean, atmopspheric water vapour increases raising temperatures
4.2.1.1.1. increased ocean acidity as they absorb more co2, reducing capacity of the oceans to absorb further co2
4.2.1.2. Some have conflicting responses
4.2.1.2.1. Cloud cover results in more water in atmosphere increasing the cover of cirrus clouds, helping to retain heat radiated from earth
4.2.1.3. Negative feedback like expansion of forests, treeline advances polewards
4.2.1.3.1. This happens slowly
4.3. Future emission scenarios
4.3.1. Intergovernmental panel on climate change
4.3.1.1. Forecasting temperatures and sea level rise
4.3.1.1.1. This understanding may not benefit the response as they predict a range of possible temperatures across the 4 RCPs
4.3.1.1.2. Best case scenario by 2100 is a 1 degree temperature rise
4.4. 2X Human actions
4.4.1. Reducing energy use would reduce GHG
4.4.2. National level
4.4.2.1. UK bringing regulations for energy certificates in 2008 and offering incentives to improve energy ratings
4.4.2.1.1. Domestic demand accounts for 1/3 of primary usage in UK
4.4.2.2. EU renewable energy directive forced UK to work towards 15% increase in renewable sources
4.4.2.2.1. Closure of all but 2 coal fired power stations
4.4.2.2.2. 2050 net zero target, results in UK taking measures to increase renewables and tackling carbon usage
4.4.3. Kyoto protocol, eu emissions trading system covers 45% of all eu emissions
4.4.3.1. INDC's some contribute more, some contribute less
4.4.4. Protecting tropical forests from deforestation UNREDD
4.4.4.1. Geoengineering techniques to help protect future emissions