# Actionable Metrics for Predictability

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Actionable Metrics for Predictability

## 1. Predictability

1.1.1. degree to which we can correctly forecast a system's future state

1.1.1.1. will always be impossible

1.1.2.1. How are we doing this release?

1.1.2.2. How can we get stories done sooner?

1.1.2.3. etc ...

### 1.2. Better

1.2.1. A predictable process is one that behaves in the way we expect it to

1.2.2. Shouldn't be project predictability but process predictability

## 3. Actionable

### 3.2. not metrics for metrics sake that have to be massaged or researched into actions

3.2.1. not good enough

## 4. Metrics

### 4.1. Littles Law

4.1.1. Avg Cycle Time = Avg WIP / Avg Throughput

4.1.2. This is proven fact

4.1.3. We want our arrival rate == throughput

4.1.3.1. this gives us flow

4.1.3.2. do this by limiting WIP

### 4.2. Cumulative Flow Diagram (CFD)

4.2.1. CFD

4.2.2. Work in Progress (WIP)

4.2.2.1. Vertical Distance of what is in progress

4.2.3. Approx. Avg Cycle Time

4.2.3.1. Horizontal Distance

4.2.3.2. Approx. because items are not exactly getting done on that line, just likely the avgs will even itself out to be approxamate

4.2.4. CFD Slopes

4.2.4.1. Slopes

4.2.4.2. Avg throughput

4.2.4.2.1. Slope of Done line (bottom line)

4.2.4.3. Avg Arrival Time

4.2.4.3.1. Slope of top line

### 4.3. Scatter Plot

4.3.1. Plot

4.3.2. Percentile lines equal to cycle time days

4.3.2.1. That percentile is our probability of getting a story done in that time

4.3.2.2. Examples

4.3.2.2.1. 50% = 19 days

4.3.2.2.2. 85% = 60 days

4.3.3. When an item gets to that 50% line while in progress

4.3.3.1. This item is bigger than 50% of the stories we have seen

4.3.4. The 85% should be the agreement we have with customers/product owner etc

4.3.4.1. anything under 85% is expected to be in the teams control and they can improve on the cycle time if WIP is limited

4.3.4.2. anything over 85% is "special causes" outside of the team's control

4.3.4.2.1. It is completely unknown when a item will get done once it passes the 85% mark