Future Wheel Pandemics
Pandemics and its consequences, ripple effects (future wheel method), collaborative mindmap
1. less transport
2. more emergency forces
3. more health care
3.1. in house fitness
3.2. tele medicine
3.3. prevention
3.4. fever scanners
3.4.1. also used to detect terrorists on airports
3.4.2. generalized monitoring
3.4.3. bracelets
4. economic downturn
4.1. shortages supply shock
4.1.1. companies go bust, lay-offs
4.1.1.1. governments intervene
4.1.1.1.1. deficit increases
4.1.1.2. less turism
4.1.1.2.1. pressure on turism dependent countries, regions
4.1.1.3. on demand, gig economy first victim
4.1.1.3.1. more appreciation for fulltime fixed employment
4.1.1.3.2. how strong is the balance sheet of my company?
4.1.1.4. less attention for other issues such as climate
4.1.1.5. less pollution
4.1.1.5.1. more pollution later on when they try to catch up
4.1.2. central banks intervene
4.1.2.1. markets reverse, or not
4.1.2.2. banks have to take care key employees can keep working
4.1.2.2.1. additional risk measurement is imposed
4.1.3. rumors about banking hoarding liquidity, tensions in the financial system
4.1.4. reorganization international supply chains
4.1.4.1. moving away from china to countries such as vietnam and thailand (covid-19)
4.1.4.2. decentralization of production
4.1.5. waste accumulates
4.1.6. worries about food supply
4.1.6.1. new models for food
4.1.7. energy markets, oil, tank
5. confidence shaken
6. demand protective gear increases
6.1. shifts in production
6.2. 3D printing
7. more surveillance and digitalization
7.1. privacy debate
7.2. more border control, national identification
7.3. push for more crypto
8. religion challenged
8.1. surveillance, IoT
8.1.1. terrorists develop bio terror
8.1.1.1. fever scanners find out about terrorists and sick people
8.2. regimes are criticized
8.2.1. authority based on religion collapses
8.3. vax-discussion
9. fake news spreads
9.1. who tells the truth how to verify
9.1.1. blockchain to the rescue?
9.2. conspiracy theories
9.2.1. debate about further regulation of social networks
10. looking for causes
10.1. deforestation
10.2. urbanization
10.2.1. discussion about living with (wild) animals
10.2.1.1. regulation of markets with live animals
10.3. globalization
10.3.1. increase in racist incidents
10.3.2. more contestation in line with climate activists and protest against "neo-liberal world order" in weird coalition with nationalists of all stripes
10.4. increased consumption animal proteins
10.4.1. more impetus for non-animal food
11. people get suspicious about food
11.1. robots make food (salads, smoothies...)
11.2. people get suspicious about everything
12. people rethink urbanism
12.1. self-reliant neighborhoods
13. new governance?
14. information
14.1. fight against fakte information
14.1.1. quality media get subscription boost
14.2. slump in ads
14.2.1. digital media under more pressure since they often don't have subscriptions
15. people start washing the hands more carefully
16. higher demand for exclusive property
17. people don't trust sharing services anymore
18. shared housing, offices, cars will need to guarantee safe operation
19. boost for cryptocurrency by criminals and people wanting to avoid detection
20. discussion about European Union failing to coordinate effectively
21. political tensions
22. online schools
22.1. AI, neuro feedback to enhance learning
22.1.1. competition between online schools, death of distance
23. games, vr, telestuff
23.1. telepresence innovation
23.1.1. telehaptics
23.1.2. tele intimacy
23.1.3. VR solution for mass gatherings
23.1.4. video solutions for mass gatherings and events
23.1.5. AR for tele work
23.1.6. drones and bots for deliveries
23.1.6.1. but demand for quality: who touches my food?
23.1.7. digital voting
24. people sick, die
24.1. inequality gets lethal
24.2. change in demographics
24.2.1. only young and healthy people survive?
24.2.2. wealth redistribution
24.2.3. changes in voting
24.3. inner cities less desirable
24.3.1. movement away from inner cities?
24.3.1.1. changes in real estate prices
24.4. mental, sociological consequences
24.4.1. youngsters rebel
24.4.2. loneliness for elderly
24.4.3. entrepreneurs panic
24.4.4. uncertainty, depression
25. increasing demand for video conferences, online collaboration, telerobots
25.1. better methods and technologies develop
25.1.1. 5G becomes even more a necessity
26. financial markets hit
26.1. central banks, governments intervene
26.2. some stocks benefit (videoconferencing, healthcare related companies)
27. contactless payments
27.1. increasingly refusal of paper money
28. international collaboration needed
28.1. discussion about brexit
28.2. clash between nationalism and need for international action
29. a sense of vulnerability
29.1. in this age people talk about achieving immortaility but also about extinction
29.1.1. climate phenomena, viruses, trade wars, could it lead to a new sense that change is possible?