1. History
2. Subcategories
2.1. Shipping
2.1.1. Panama Canal drought
2.2. Dedollarization
2.2.1. Risks (20/9/23)
2.2.1.1. Inflation
2.2.1.2. Debt burdens
2.3. Current Inflation Triggers in the US (18/10/230
2.3.1. Involvement in multiple wars around the world
2.3.2. Beginning of a new trade war with China
2.3.3. Record low oil inventories with $90 oil prices
2.3.4. CPI inflation back up to a 5-month high
2.3.5. Least affordable housing market in history.
3. Risks
3.1. Banking
3.1.1. Brokered deposits (14/9/23)
3.1.1.1. US banks held $1.2T
3.1.1.2. Up 86% from the previous year
3.2. AI
3.2.1. Modern governments will lose their current power (14/9/23)
3.3. "Agripower"
3.3.1. US is now facing a future of persistent agricultural trade deficits (29/9/23)
4. Headwinds
4.1. Debt refinancing
4.1.1. Corporate bankruptcies expected for 2024
4.2. China Property Sector
4.2.1. third of fund managers name biggest threat to the stability of the global economy (14/9/23)
4.3. China Insurance Sector
4.3.1. Insurance companies may be unable to payout policies (14/9/23)
4.4. Basis short treasuries (20/9/23)
4.4.1. Hedge Funds are shorting treasuries at historic levels
4.4.2. asset managers are doing the exact opposite
4.4.3. positions continue to reach more extreme levels.
4.5. Market downturn
4.5.1. Bursting of bubbles (20/9/23)
4.6. Capital spending in tech has been falling rapidly (18/10/23
4.6.1. nearing contraction territory
4.6.2. typical reaction of upcoming recession
5. Tailwinds
6. Investible areas
7. Regulations
7.1. EU
7.1.1. Regulating Chinese imports of electic cars (14/9/23)
8. News
8.1. Risks
8.1.1. Global financial black swan event