The Art of Thinking Clearly Rolf Dobelli

The mindmap of cognitive bias and fallaciesThe Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli

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The Art of Thinking Clearly Rolf Dobelli Door Mind Map: The Art of Thinking Clearly Rolf Dobelli

1. M

1.1. Motivation crowding

1.1.1. small monetary incentives may crowd out other types of incentives.

1.1.2. video

1.1.2.1. Monetary Incentives and Motivation explained by Bruno Frey

2. R

2.1. Reciprocity

2.1.1. we feel we owe something in return whenever we accept a favour or free item.

2.1.2. video

2.1.2.1. Bureau Influence Tip by Robert Cialdini – Reciprocity

2.2. Regression to the mean

2.2.1. average values will fluctuate around a mean. Decreased or increased performance may simply be these random fluctuations, not due to an identifiable cause.

2.2.2. video

2.2.2.1. Regression To Mean Bias

2.2.2.2. Regression to the Mean

2.2.2.3. Galton Board and the Regression to the Mean

2.2.2.4. Galton Board

3. O

3.1. Overconfidence effect

3.1.1. we systematically overestimate our knowledge and our ability to predict.

3.1.2. more information

3.1.2.1. Dunning–Kruger effect - Wikipedia

3.1.3. video

3.1.3.1. Overconfidence Bias

3.1.3.2. Overconfidence Bias | Concepts Unwrapped

3.2. Outcome bias

3.2.1. we tend to evaluate decisions based on the result, instead of the process.

3.2.2. video

3.2.2.1. Outcome Bias

3.3. Overthinking

3.3.1. if you think too much, you will lose the wisdom of your emotional response.

3.3.2. Video

3.3.2.1. overthinking the hell out of overthinking

3.4. Omission bias

3.4.1. we tend to prefer inaction whenever both action and inaction lead to cruel consequences.

3.4.2. video

3.4.2.1. Omission Bias

4. T

4.1. Twaddle tendency

4.1.1. reams of words used to disguise intellectual laziness, stupidity, misunderstanding or underdeveloped ideas. Often used in conjunction with authority bias.

4.1.2. Video

4.1.2.1. The Twaddle Tendency (25 cognitive biases - part 12)

4.2. Tragedy of commons

4.2.1. Tragedy Of The Commons Definition

4.2.2. What is the tragedy of the commons? - Nicholas Amendolare

4.2.3. 🐄 The Tragedy of the Commons | How to Avoid It?

4.2.4. Governing The Commons in Six Minutes

5. V

5.1. Volunteer’s folly

5.1.1. volunteering our time is less efficient (because we do these jobs less effectively) than contributing our earnings for the equivalent amount of time. Exception: celebrities.

6. N

6.1. News illusion

6.1.1. we believe news is important, when in reality it is not, and is specifically designed to attract us, despite this.

6.2. Not-invented-here syndrome

6.2.1. when we think anything we create ourselves is unbeatable.

6.2.2. video

6.2.2.1. Dan Ariely & The Not Invented Here Bias

6.2.3. ideas are like tooth brush

6.2.3.1. The idea is that everyone wants a toothbrush, everyone needs one, everyone has one, but no one wants to use anyone else’s.”

6.3. Neomania

6.3.1. when we prioritize things that are new and novel over their actual benefits.

6.4. Neglect of probability

6.4.1. we lack an intuitive grasp of probability, and instead tend to respond to the expected magnitude of an event, instead of its likelihood.

6.4.2. Video

6.4.2.1. Neglect of Probability

7. Z

7.1. Zeigarnik effect

7.1.1. we forget uncompleted tasks unless we have a clear idea of how to deal with them.

7.1.2. video

7.1.2.1. Zeigarnik Effect

7.1.2.2. The Zeigarnik Effect Can Help You Become More Persuasive

8. W

8.1. Will Rogers phenomenon

8.1.1. the effect of changing the average in two groups (positively) by moving something from one category to another.

8.1.2. if you move the lowest net worth individual from a higher group to a lower group, the average net worth of both groups increases.

8.1.3. Video

8.1.3.1. Calling Bullshit 4.4: The Will Rogers Effect

8.2. Winner’s curse

8.2.1. the winner of an auction often turns out to be the loser.

8.2.2. Video

8.2.2.1. Game Theory 101 (#72): The Winner's Curse, Part 1

8.2.2.2. The Ideal Auction - Numberphile

9. S

9.1. Sleeper effect

9.1.1. if propaganda/advertising strikes a chord with someone, the influence will only increase over time.

9.1.2. video

9.1.2.1. The Sleeper Effect – How the Media Manipulates You

9.2. Social comparison bias

9.2.1. we tend to withhold assistance for people who might outdo us, even if you look like the fool in the long run.

9.2.2. video

9.2.2.1. Social Comparison: Downward and Upward

9.2.2.2. Social Comparison Bias

9.2.2.3. Social Comparison Thoery

9.3. Salience effect

9.3.1. outstanding features has an undue influence on how we think and act. We neglect hidden, slow-to-develop factors.

9.4. Strategic misrepresentation

9.4.1. the more at stake, the more exaggerated your assertions become.

9.5. Survivorship bias

9.5.1. we tend to only hear about the successes or “survivors” - we don’t hear the stories of the failures, and thus overestimate the chances of success.

9.5.2. video

9.5.2.1. Survivorship Bias

9.5.2.2. You are missing something! - Survivorship bias

9.5.2.3. Why you shouldn't trust successful people's advice

9.6. Social proof

9.6.1. we feel we are behaving correctly when we act the same as other people.

9.6.2. video

9.6.2.1. Social Proof

9.6.2.2. Bureau Influence Tip by Robert Cialdini - Social Proof

9.7. Sunk cost fallacy

9.7.1. when we consider the costs incurred to date as a factor in our decision-making. Only your assessment of the future costs and benefits should count.

9.7.2. video

9.7.2.1. Sunk Cost Fallacy

9.7.2.2. Julia Galef: The Sunk Costs Fallacy | Big Think

9.7.2.3. What is a Sunk Cost?

9.8. Story bias / Narrative fallacy

9.8.1. we try and shape everything into stories.

9.8.2. video

9.8.2.1. Books - Episode 5 // The Narrative Fallacy

9.9. Social loafing

9.9.1. when people work together (and individual performance is not directly visible), their individual performance decreases.

9.9.2. video

9.9.2.1. Social Loafing

9.9.2.2. Social loafing

9.9.2.3. Sport Psychology | The Ringelmann Effect

9.9.2.4. "Ringelmann Effect" aka "Social Loafing"

9.10. Self-serving bias

9.10.1. we attribute success to ourselves and failure to external circumstances.

9.10.2. Video

9.10.2.1. Self Serving Bias

9.10.2.2. Self-serving Bias | Concepts Unwrapped

9.11. Self-selection bias

9.11.1. we change the outcome of something by poorly selecting our sample.

9.11.2. More content

9.11.2.1. Do Not Marvel at Your Existence -

9.11.3. video

9.11.3.1. Selection Bias: Will You Make More Going to a Private University?

9.12. Simple logic

9.12.1. we tend to default to intuition because it is less taxing.

9.12.2. video

9.12.2.1. Why You Can Never Argue with Conspiracy Theorists | Argument Clinic | WIRED

9.13. Swimmer’s body illusion

9.13.1. confusing the factor for selection with the result (ex: swimming gives you a great frame; actually, great swimmers are born with a good frame for swimming).

9.13.2. video

9.13.2.1. Swimmers Body illusion by Rolf Dobelli

9.14. Strawman fallacy

9.14.1. video

9.14.1.1. The "Straw Man" Fallacy

10. P

10.1. Planning fallacy

10.1.1. we overestimate benefits, and underestimate the risks, costs and duration of a project.

10.1.2. Video

10.1.2.1. OFI - Behavioural Economics Bites 5 - The Planning Fallacy

10.1.2.2. The Planning Fallacy: Getting Things Done

10.1.2.3. Why Everything Takes Longer Than You Expect

10.2. Procrastination

10.2.1. the tendency to delay unpleasant but important acts.

10.2.2. video

10.2.2.1. Inside the mind of a master procrastinator | Tim Urban

10.2.2.2. How to Stop Procrastinating

10.3. Personification

10.3.1. we empathize with other people when the human aspect is visible.

10.4. Platonification

10.4.1. We cut the world up into crisp categories, and then assume that the world matches our model precisely. (If it's not in my model, it doesn't exist.)

10.5. Primacy and recency effects

10.5.1. the first trait, or more recent information, hold larger sway over us.

10.5.2. video

10.5.2.1. Primacy and Recency Effect

10.6. Priming

10.6.1. Video

10.6.1.1. How psychology affects your decision-making | Priming & Loss Aversion

10.6.1.2. Daniel Kahneman on Studies on Priming People to The Idea of Money

10.6.1.3. PRIMING by Daniel Kahneman | Thinking, Fast and Slow

10.7. Paradox of choice

10.7.1. an abundance of choice leads to inner paralysis, poorer decisions, and unhappiness with our decisions.

10.7.2. video

10.7.2.1. The Paradox of Choice, Barry Schwartz

10.7.2.2. The Paradox of Choice Explained: Why You're Unhappy With Your Decisions

10.7.2.3. The paradox of choice | Barry Schwartz

10.8. Problems with averages

10.8.1. averages often mask the underlying distribution.

10.8.2. video

10.8.2.1. The Problem With Averages

10.8.3. Never cross a river that is “on average” four feet deep.

10.8.4. The Bill Gates phenomenon.

11. A

11.1. Ambiguity aversion

11.1.1. we favour known probabilities over unknown ones.

11.1.2. Elsberg Paradox

11.1.2.1. Video

11.1.2.1.1. Are you afraid of uncertainty?

11.1.2.1.2. The Ellsberg Paradox and the Neural Foundations of Decision-Making under Uncertainty

11.2. Affect heuristic

11.2.1. when we make complex decisions by consulting our emotions, instead of considering the risks and benefits independently.

11.2.2. video

11.2.2.1. Affect Heuristic

11.3. Alternative paths

11.3.1. we fail to consider all the outcomes which could have happened, and therefore underestimate risk.

11.3.2. additional material

11.3.2.1. Nassim Taleb on the Notion of Alternative Histories

11.3.2.2. Nassim Nicholas Taleb Russian roulette example

11.4. Association bias

11.4.1. we make false connections between things that are not linked.

11.4.2. additional material

11.4.2.1. Bias from Association: Why We Shoot the Messenger

11.4.3. we condemn the bearers of bad news, due to the negative nature of the message.

11.5. Anchors (Anchoring Bias)

11.5.1. when we guess something, we start from something we are sure of, and go from there.

11.5.2. video

11.5.2.1. Anchoring bias

11.6. Action bias

11.6.1. we feel compelled to do something, particularly in new or shaky circumstances, even if we have made things worse by acting too quickly or too often.

11.6.2. video

11.6.2.1. Action Bias

11.7. Alternative blindness

11.7.1. we systematically forget to compare an existing offer with the next-best alternative.

11.7.2. Barry Shwartz Paradox of Choice

11.7.2.1. Barry Shwartz Paradox of Choice

11.8. Authority bias

11.8.1. we tend to defer to authority, and consider the opinions of supposedly authoritative people too strongly.

11.8.2. additional material

11.8.2.1. Iatrogenesis

11.8.2.1.1. NNT

11.8.2.2. Stanley Miligram Obedience to authority

11.8.2.2.1. Stanley Miligram Obedience to authority

11.9. Availability bias

11.9.1. we create a picture of the world, or construct arguments, based on examples and evidence that most easily come to mind.

11.9.2. Counter by spending time with people who think differently than you do.

11.9.3. Video

11.9.3.1. Availability Bias

11.10. Ad honimen

11.10.1. video

11.10.1.1. The Ad Hominem Fallacy

11.10.1.2. What is an Ad Hominem Attack? | Argument Clinic | WIRED

12. B

12.1. Beginner’s luck

12.1.1. we create a false link with early, past results.

12.1.2. Silent evidence. We only hear those who lived to tell the story. For example, "beginner's luck" in gambling is explained like this: Those who had bad luck at the beginning did not take up gambling; therefore a disproportionate fraction of gamblers did, in fact, have luck at the start. Silent evidence gives us an illusion of stability and safety: We underestimate the risks we took in the past, because we survived them all. If we hadn't, we wouldn't be here to contemplate the question. So we compute odds from the point of view of the winning gambler, and not based on everyone who started in our cohort.

12.2. Base-rate neglect

12.2.1. we disregard the basic distribution levels for a given outcome.

12.2.2. Also made worse by survivorship bias.

12.2.3. Often exacerbated by giving more detail (narrative fallacy contributes).

12.3. “Because” justification

12.3.1. introduction of a reason (any reason) increases our compliance.

12.3.2. Link

12.3.2.1. Any Lame Excuse -

12.4. The Black Swan

12.4.1. an unthinkable event that massively affects your life, career, company, country.

13. L

13.1. Loss aversion

13.1.1. the fear of losing something motivates people more than the prospect of gaining something of equal value.

13.1.2. Video

13.1.2.1. Daniel Kahneman - Stick With Your Winners - Insights for Entrepreneurs - Amazon

13.1.2.2. Loss Aversion bias

13.1.2.3. 2.6 Loss Aversion and The Endowment Effect

13.1.2.4. Daniel Kahneman: Thinking Fast vs. Thinking Slow | Inc. Magazine

13.2. Law of small numbers

13.2.1. when we assume characteristics of the overall population can be assumed from a small sample, when in fact small samples are much more subject to random variation.

13.2.2. video

13.2.2.1. The Law of Small Numbers

13.2.2.2. The Small Sample Fallacy

13.2.2.3. The reason casinos always win: meet the law of large numbers

13.3. Liking bias

13.3.1. the more we like someone, the more we want to buy from or help that person.

13.3.2. video

13.3.2.1. Bureau Influence Tip by Robert Cialdini – Liking

13.3.2.2. Blinded by Liking: Bias Wins.

14. G

14.1. Groupthink

14.1.1. in groups, we tend to avoid contradiction, and we tend to agree with the majority conclusion.

14.1.2. video

14.1.2.1. Groupthink - A short introduction

14.2. Gambler’s fallacy

14.2.1. we tend to mix up events that are independent and dependent (ie. this ball has landed on black 10 times, it must be red soon).

14.2.2. “What goes around comes around” is just false.

14.2.3. Video

14.2.3.1. Critical Thinking Part 5: The Gambler's Fallacy

15. C

15.1. Fear of regret

15.1.1. when we fail to act to avoid potentially feeling regret.

15.1.2. Video

15.1.2.1. The BIGGEST Thing You Should FEAR is REGRET! | Gary Vaynerchuk | #Entspresso

15.2. Cherry picking

15.2.1. selecting and showcasing the most attractive features and hiding the rest.

15.3. Clustering illusion

15.3.1. we tend to see patterns where there aren’t any.

15.3.2. Videos

15.3.2.1. Clustering Illusion

15.3.2.2. What is Clustering Illusion | Explained in 2 min

15.3.3. More info

15.3.3.1. forgetomori » Seeing Patterns

15.3.3.2. BOMB

15.4. Chauffeur knowledge

15.4.1. the knowledge required to make it appear as though someone understands something, when in fact they do not.

15.5. Coincidence

15.5.1. we tend to see unlikely events as causal, when in reality they are likely random.

15.6. Cognitive dissonance

15.6.1. when inconsistencies in our thoughts, beliefs, or attitudes cause us to reinterpret events to keep things consistent.

15.6.2. videos

15.6.2.1. Cognitive Dissonance Theory: A Crash Course

15.6.2.2. Cognitive Dissonance | Concepts Unwrapped

15.6.2.3. A Lesson In Cognitive Dissonance

15.7. Contagion bias

15.7.1. we are incapable of ignoring the connection we feel to certain items, even if from long ago or of indirect relation.

15.8. Confirmation bias

15.8.1. we interpret evidence to support our existing beliefs.

15.8.2. video

15.8.2.1. Confirmation Bias

15.8.2.2. The Confirmation Bias

15.8.2.3. Confirmation Bias in 5 Minutes

15.8.3. To counter, set out to find disconfirming evidence for your hypothesis.

15.9. Contrast effect

15.9.1. we judge things in relation to other things. We also don’t notice small, gradual changes.

15.9.2. Video

15.9.2.1. What is Contrast Effect | Explained in 2 min

15.10. Conjunction fallacy

15.10.1. when a subset seems larger than the entire set.

15.10.2. A result of our attraction to plausible stories.

15.10.3. Linda problem

15.10.4. Video

15.10.4.1. The Conjunction Fallacy

16. I

16.1. Illusion of skill

16.1.1. luck plays a larger role than skill in many domains, like entrepreneurship and leadership. Skill is necessary but not sufficient.

16.1.2. more information

16.1.2.1. Rolf Dobelli: Illusion of Skill

16.2. Intention-to-treat error

16.2.1. when failed projects or statistics show up in the wrong category.

16.2.2. Video

16.2.2.1. Intention to Treat

16.3. Illusion of attention

16.3.1. we are confident that we notice everything in front of us, despite only seeing what we are focused on.

16.3.2. video

16.3.2.1. The Monkey Business Illusion

16.4. Information bias

16.4.1. the delusion that more information guarantees better decisions.

16.4.2. video

16.4.2.1. Information Bias

16.4.2.2. Information Bias

16.5. Inability to close doors

16.5.1. we tend to prefer leaving options open, thinking they are free, when in reality they have a cost in distracting us.

16.6. In-group out-group bias

16.6.1. groups form based on minor criteria. You perceive people outside your group to be more similar than they actually are (stereotypes start here). Group members lead to disproportionate perceived support within the group.

16.6.2. video

16.6.2.1. How Our Brains Respond to People Who Aren't Like Us

16.6.2.2. In-out groups

16.6.2.3. Prejudice and Discrimination: Crash Course Psychology #39

16.6.2.4. 60 Minutes- Ingroup Bias in Babies

16.7. Illusion of control

16.7.1. we believe we influence far more than we actually do.

16.7.2. video

16.7.2.1. 6 Buttons That Actually Do Nothing

16.8. Induction

16.8.1. the inclination to draw universal certainties from individual (typically past) observations.

16.8.2. Video

16.8.2.1. Induction Bias

16.8.3. The turkey problem - he lives a great life until Thanksgiving.

16.9. Incentive super-response tendency

16.9.1. people respond to incentives by doing what is in their best interests.

16.9.2. video

16.9.2.1. Freakonomics and the Power of Incentives

16.9.2.2. Charlie Munger : The power of incentives

16.9.3. More information

16.9.3.1. Incentives: The Hidden Forces That Shape Behavior

16.10. Introspection illusion

16.10.1. the belief that reflection leads to truth or accuracy.

16.11. It’ll-get-worse-before-it-gets-better fallacy

16.11.1. a variation of confirmation bias. If the problem persists, the prediction is confirmed. If it improves, the expert can attribute it to his prowess.

17. D

17.1. Déformation professionnelle

17.1.1. experts will tend to solve problems using their expertise, not necessarily the best method.

17.1.2. “To the man with a hammer, every problem is a nail."

17.2. Default effect

17.2.1. we prefer the status quo.

17.2.2. video

17.2.2.1. Default Effect and Status Quo Bias

17.3. Domain dependence

17.3.1. insights from one field do not pass well to another.

17.3.2. Additional information

17.3.2.1. Knowledge Is Nontransferable -

17.4. Decision fatigue

17.4.1. willpower erodes throughout the day, particularly when we haven’t eaten or slept.

17.4.2. Video

17.4.2.1. Willpower: Self-control, decision fatigue, and energy

18. F

18.1. Feature-positive effect

18.1.1. we place a greater emphasis on what is present than what is absent.

18.1.2. Additional material

18.1.2.1. The Feature-Positive Effect *

18.2. Fallacy of the single cause

18.2.1. the belief that a single factor caused an event or phenomenon.

18.2.2. Video

18.2.2.1. Single Cause Fallacy (Fallacy of the Week)

18.3. False-consensus effect

18.3.1. we overestimate the unanimity of others, believing they think and feel exactly like we do.

18.3.2. video

18.3.2.1. PSYCH: THE FALSE CONSENSUS EFFECT

18.4. Falsification of history

18.4.1. our memories are riddled with inaccuracy.

18.4.2. video

18.4.2.1. Karl Popper's Falsification

18.4.2.2. Chapter 1.4: Karl Popper and the logic of falsification

18.5. Framing

18.5.1. we react differently to identical situations, depending on how they are presented.

18.5.2. Videp

18.5.2.1. Daniel Kahneman: Why We Make Bad Decisions About Money (And What We Can Do About It)

18.5.2.2. Framing Bias

18.5.2.3. Framing | Concepts Unwrapped

18.6. Forer effect (aka Barnum effect)

18.6.1. we tend to identify with positive traits in general descriptions, believing pseudosciences as a result.

18.6.2. video

18.6.2.1. Forer (or Barnum) Effect

18.6.2.2. The Barnum Effect

18.6.2.3. The Barnum Effect - Why People Believe In Astrology And Psychics

18.7. Forecast illusion

18.7.1. we tend to believe forecasts, despite the poor predictability and low downside for being wrong.

18.7.2. Video

18.7.2.1. Forecast Illusion - Do you blindly follow the experts?

18.8. False causality

18.8.1. when we mix up correlation with causation.

18.8.2. Video

18.8.2.1. Can you outsmart the fallacy that fooled a generation of doctors? - Elizabeth Cox

19. E

19.1. Envy

19.1.1. when we compare ourselves on the basis of ownership, status, health, youth, talent, popularity or beauty. The subject of envy is a thing, where as the subject of jealousy is the behaviour of a third person.

19.2. Expectations

19.2.1. expectations form our reaction to various events, and contribute to our happiness. Set expectations high for yourself and the people you love, and lower them for things you cannot control.

19.3. Effort justification

19.3.1. if you put a lot of effort into a task, you tend to overvalue the result.

19.4. Endowment effect

19.4.1. we consider things to be more valuable the moment we own them.

19.4.2. video

19.4.2.1. Endowment Effect

19.4.2.2. The Endowment Effect

19.4.2.3. 2.6 Loss Aversion and The Endowment Effect

19.5. Exponential growth

19.5.1. we do not have a good intuitive feel for exponential growth (vs. Linear growth).

19.5.2. video

19.5.2.1. Exponential Growth

20. H

20.1. House-money effect

20.1.1. we treat money that we win, discover, or inherit much more frivolously than hard-earned cash.

20.1.2. Video

20.1.2.1. Bad habits: House Money Effect

20.2. Hedonic treadmill

20.2.1. we adjust to new circumstances, and are unable to correctly predict our own emotions in response to new circumstances.

20.2.2. Video

20.2.2.1. Would winning the lottery make you happier? - Raj Raghunathan

20.3. Hyperbolic discounting

20.3.1. the introduction of “now”, causing us to make inconsistent decisions.

20.3.2. Video

20.3.2.1. Hyperbolic Discounting

20.3.2.2. Hyperbolic Discounting: Why You Make Terrible Life Choices - Nir&Far - Episode#31

20.4. Hindsight bias

20.4.1. in retrospect, everything seems clear and inevitable.

20.4.2. video

20.4.2.1. Why Psychology Tells Us What We Already Know

20.5. Halo effect

20.5.1. when a single aspect dazzles us, and we fail to see the larger picture or evaluate other factors objectively.

20.5.2. video

20.5.2.1. The Halo Effect

20.5.2.2. The Halo Effect

20.5.2.3. Halo Effect - Nike Marketing Strategy

20.5.2.4. Brain Games - Halo Effect

21. Other

21.1. The Art of Thinking Clearly More content

21.1.1. http://xqdoc.imedao.com/166eb7278f3556e3fe9dc3ef.pdf

21.1.2. The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli - Summary & Note

21.2. Scientists and authors to fallow

21.2.1. Paul Slovic

21.2.1.1. HUMAN TRAGEDIES: THE MORE WHO DIE, THE LESS WE CARE | Paul Slovic | TEDxKakumaCamp

21.2.2. Nassim Nicholas Taleb

21.2.3. Scout Plous

21.2.3.1. Social Psychology : Scott Plous, Wesleyan University

21.2.4. Bruno Frey

21.2.5. David brooks social annimal

21.2.5.1. David Brooks: The social animal

21.2.6. Leon Festinger

21.2.6.1. Videos

21.2.6.1.1. A Lesson In Cognitive Dissonance

21.2.6.1.2. Firing Line with William F. Buckley Jr.: The Mechanism of Moral Development

21.2.7. Daniel Kahneman

21.2.8. Dan Ariely

21.2.9. Roy Baumeister

21.2.10. Albert Bandura

21.2.11. Robert Cialdini

21.2.12. Philip Zimbardo

21.2.13. Abraham Maslow

21.2.14. Amos Tversky

21.2.15. Richard Thaler

21.2.16. Cass Sunstein

21.2.17. Milton Friedman

21.2.18. Stanley Milgram

21.2.19. Daniel Gilbert

21.2.20. Philip Tetlock

21.2.21. Theodore Levitt

21.2.22. PHIL ROSENZWEIG

21.2.23. Sir Francis Galton

21.2.24. Elinor Ostrom

21.2.25. John C. Hershey

21.2.26. Jonathan Miller Baron

21.2.27. Robyn Dawes

21.2.28. Max Planck

21.2.29. Christopher J. Mayer

21.2.30. Robert Trivers

21.2.31. Thomas Gilovich

21.2.32. Ulrich Hoffrage

21.2.33. Martin Gruber

21.3. Web pages

21.3.1. The Black Swan - Taleb

21.3.2. 220 Fallacies

21.3.2.1. Fallacies | Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy

21.3.3. A/B Testing Ideas for definitions

21.3.4. Courses – Carneades

21.4. More videos from UT Austin

21.4.1. Concepts Unwrapped - Ethics Unwrapped - UT Austin

21.5. Must read Books

21.5.1. Heuristics under Biases amazon

21.5.1.1. http://perso.ens-lyon.fr/jacques.jayez/Cours/LogRais/ProbRais/Heuristics_and_Biases.pdf

21.5.2. Dance with chance amazon

21.5.2.1. Video

21.5.2.1.1. 'Black Swan' author Nassim Taleb meets 'Dance with Chance' co-authors

21.5.3. Poor Charlie's Almanack amazon

21.5.4. Black Swan amazon

21.6. Organizaions

21.6.1. Public Choice Society.

21.6.2. Society for Judgment and Decision Making

21.6.3. Society for Medical Decision Making

21.6.3.1. Society for Medical Decision Making

21.6.4. Multiple Criteria Decision Making

21.6.5. SJDM Archives - Decision Science News

21.6.6. EADM

21.6.7. DMDU Society

21.6.7.1. DMDU Society

21.7. Courses

21.7.1. Problem Solving

21.7.1.1. Creative Problem Solving

21.7.1.2. Design Thinking for the Greater Good: Innovation in the Social Sector

21.7.1.3. Methods for Solving Problems

21.7.1.4. Cracking the Creativity Code: Discovering Ideas