In the online word, businesses no longer look at us as herds but as vast collections of individuals -- each of us represented by scores of equations. p42
Discouraging unwanted shoopers is far easier on the Internet p52, As merchants learn more about us...easier to determine who to reward and punish
David Heckerman - Microsoft
Created program to detect email spam
Spammers change message slightly to break through
If tool could detect mutations in spam, might also work in medicine
Shifted focus to HIV research
Initially used averages
Clustering software works better
stochastic analysis, attempts to tie predictions to random events
modelling employee performance, big brother?, performance DNA, better match of skills to tasks
catalog everything (gestures, skills, etc.) - turn into numbers
challenge - create taxonomy to catalog skills of 300K IBM workers
Second Life, IBM created virtual world on SL in Nov. 2006, In the future, all business processes will be simulated
baseball wins above replacement player
compares cost variance of replacement player and the variance in wins to determine ROI
created simplex algorithm
recipe to guide intelligent decision making
Look at us one way and we are stocks. Change the perspective, and we're machine parts. p23
The work force is too big, the world too vast and complicated for managers to get a grip on their workers the old-fashioned way -- by talking to people who know people who know people. (p34)
What does the future hold?
How will people fare in the future?
What skills and abilities will be needed to achieve success in the future?
Extending opportunity to others
Working within a community
Focusing on family
Bootstrapper (committed to individual initiative)
Stand Pats (long for a return to past values)
If a tool to predict if a person was a pedophile was accurate 85% of the time (and wrong 15%), should it be used?