1. The generalization instincts
1.1. Look for differences within group
1.1.1. Especially when the groups are large, look for ways to split them into smaller and more precise categories.
1.2. Look for similarities across groups
1.2.1. If you find striking similarities between different groups, consider whether your categories are relevant.
1.3. Look for differences across groups
1.3.1. Do not assume that what applies for one group applies for another
1.4. Beware the majority
1.4.1. The Majority just means more than half. Ask whether it means 51 percent , 99 percent or something in between.
1.5. Beware the vivid examples
1.5.1. Vivid images are easier to recall but they might be the exception rather than the rule
1.6. Assume people are not idiots
1.6.1. When something looks strange, be curious and humble and think, In what way is this a smart solution ?
2. The destiny instincts
2.1. Keep track of gradual improvements
2.1.1. A small change every year can translate to a huge change over decades
2.2. Update your knowledge
2.2.1. Some knowledge goes out of date quickly. Technology, countries, societies, cultures and religions are constantly changing.
2.3. Talk to grandpa
2.3.1. If you want to reminded of how values have changed , think about your grandparents's values and how they differ from yours
2.4. Collect examples of cultural changes
2.4.1. Challenge the idea that today's culture must also have been yesterday's and will also be tomorrow's.
3. The single prospective instincts
3.1. Test your ideas
3.1.1. Don't only collect examples that show how excellent your favorite ideas are. Have people who disagree with you test your ideas and find their weaknesses.
3.2. Limited expertise
3.2.1. Don't claim expertise beyond your field : be humble about what you don't know. Be aware too of the limits of the expertise of others.
3.3. Hammer and nails
3.3.1. If you are good with a tool, you may want to use it too often. If you have analyzed a problem in depth , you can end up exaggerating the importance of that problem or of your solution . remember that no one tool is good for everything, Be open to ideas from other fields.
3.4. Numbers but not only numbers
3.4.1. The world cannot be understood without numbers, and it cannot be understood with number alone. Love numbers for what they tell you about real lives.
3.5. Baware of simple ideas and simple solutions
3.5.1. History is full of visionaries who used simple utopian visions to justify terrible actions. Welcome complexity. Combine ideas. Compromise. Solve problems on a case by case basis.
4. The blame instincts
4.1. Look for causes not villains
4.1.1. When something goes wrong don't look for an individual or a group o blame. Accept that bad things can happen without anyone intending them to. Instead spend your energy on understanding the multiple interacting causes or system , that created the situation.
4.2. Look for systems not heroes
4.2.1. When someone claims to have caused something good, ask whether the outcome might have happened anyway, even if that individual had done nothing. Give the system some credit.
5. The urgency instincts
5.1. Take a breath
5.1.1. When your urgency instinct triggered, your other instinct kick in and your analysis shuts down. Ask for more time and more information . Rarely now or never and its rarely either / or
5.2. Insists on the data
5.2.1. If something is urgent and important , it should be measured. Beware of data that is relevant but inaccurate , or accurate but irrelevant. Only relevant and accurate data is useful.
5.3. Beware of fortune tellers
5.3.1. Any prediction about the future is uncertain. be wary of predictions that fail to acknowledge that. Insist on a full range of scenarios, never just the best or worst case. As how often such predictions have been right before.
5.4. Beware of drastic actions
5.4.1. Ask what the side effects will be. Ask how the idea has been tested. Step by step practical improvements, and evaluation of their impact, are less dramatic but usually more effective.
6. The Gap instinct
6.1. 1. Beware comparisons of Averages
6.1.1. If you could check the spreads you would probably find the overlap. There is probably no gap at all.
6.2. 2. Beware comparisons of extremes
6.2.1. In all groups/countries/people , there are some people in the top and some in the bottom. The difference is sometimes extremely unfair. The majority is usually somewhere in between.
6.3. 3. The view from up here
6.3.1. Looking down from above distorts the view. Everything else looks equally short, but its not.
7. The Negativity instincts
7.1. 1. Better and Bad
7.1.1. 1. Practice distinguishing between a level and direction of change. Convince yourself that things can be both good and bad.
7.2. 2. Good news is not news
7.2.1. Good news are almost never reported. So news is almost always bad. When you see bad news, ask whether equally positive news would have reached you.
7.3. 3. Gradual improvement is not news
7.3.1. When the trend is gradually improving with periodic dips, you are more likely to notice the dips than the overall improvemnt
7.4. 4. More news doesnot mean more suffering
7.4.1. More bad news is sometimes due to better surveillance of suffering, not a worsening world.
7.5. 5. Beware of rosy pasts
7.5.1. People often glorify their early experiences and nations often glorify their histories.
8. The size instincts
8.1. Look for comparisons
8.1.1. Big numbers always look big. Single numbers on their own are misleading and should make you suspicious. Always look for comparisons Ideally divide by something
8.2. 80/20 rule
8.2.1. Have you been given a long list? Look for the few largest items and deal with those first. They are quite likely more important than all the others put together
8.3. Devide (Amount vs Rate)
8.3.1. Amount and rates can tell very different stories. Rates are more meaningful, especially when comparing between different-sized groups. In particular, look for rates per person when comparing between countries or regions
9. The straight line instincts
9.1. 1. Dont assume straight line
9.1.1. Many trends do not follow straight lines but are S bends, humps or doubling lines. No child ever kept up the rate of growth it achieved in its first six months and no parents would expect it to.
10. The fear instincts
10.1. 1. Scary world fear vs reality
10.1.1. The world seems scarier than it is because what you hear about it has been selected by your attention filter or by media - precisely because it is scary.
10.2. 2. Risk = Danger x exposure
10.2.1. The risk sometimes poses to you depends not on how scared it makes you feel, but on a combination of two things. How dangerous is it? How much are you exposed to it?
10.3. 3. Get calm before you carry on
10.3.1. When you are afraid , you see the world differently . make as few decisions as possible until the panic has subsided.