Factfulness

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Factfulness by Mind Map: Factfulness

1. The Gap instinct

1.1. 1. Beware comparisons of Averages

1.1.1. If you could check the spreads you would probably find the overlap. There is probably no gap at all.

1.2. 2. Beware comparisons of extremes

1.2.1. In all groups/countries/people , there are some people in the top and some in the bottom. The difference is sometimes extremely unfair. The majority is usually somewhere in between.

1.3. 3. The view from up here

1.3.1. Looking down from above distorts the view. Everything else looks equally short, but its not.

2. The generalization instincts

2.1. Look for differences within group

2.2. Look for similarities across groups

2.3. Look for differences across groups

2.4. Beware the majority

2.5. Beware the vivid examples

2.6. Assume people are not idiots

3. The Negativity instincts

3.1. 1. Better and Bad

3.1.1. 1. Practice distinguishing between a level and direction of change. Convince yourself that things can be both good and bad.

3.2. 2. Good news is not news

3.2.1. Good news are almost never reported. So news is almost always bad. When you see bad news, ask whether equally positive news would have reached you.

3.3. 3. Gradual improvement is not news

3.3.1. When the trend is gradually improving with periodic dips, you are more likely to notice the dips than the overall improvemnt

3.4. 4. More news doesnot mean more suffering

3.4.1. More bad news is sometimes due to better surveillance of suffering, not a worsening world.

3.5. 5. Beware of rosy pasts

3.5.1. People often glorify their early experiences and nations often glorify their histories.

4. The size instincts

4.1. Look for comparisons

4.2. 80/20 rule

4.3. Devide (Amount vs Rate)

5. The straight line instincts

5.1. 1. Dont assume straight line

5.1.1. Many trends do not follow straight lines but are S bends, humps or doubling lines. No child ever kept up the rate of growth it achieved in its first six months and no parents would expect it to.

6. The fear instincts

6.1. 1. Scary world fear vs reality

6.2. 2. Risk = Danger x exposure

6.3. 3. Get calm before you carry on

7. The destiny instincts

7.1. Keep track of gradual improvements

7.2. Update your knowledge

7.3. Talk to grandpa

7.4. Collect examples of cultural changes

8. The single prospective instincts

8.1. Test your ideas

8.2. Limited expertise

8.3. Hammer and nails

8.4. Numbers but not only numbers

8.5. Baware of sinple ideas and simple solutions

9. The blame instincts

9.1. Look for causes not villains

9.2. Look for systems not heroes

10. The urgency instincts

10.1. Take a breath

10.2. Insists on the data

10.3. Beware of fortune tellers

10.4. Beware of drastic actions