1. People Are Spending More Time At Home
1.1. Quality time spent with family members, roommates, partners....etc will increase.
1.2. People will spend the new time on self improvement.
1.2.1. Spending on online educational courses will increase
1.2.1.1. Platforms such as Udemy, Skillshare, Pluralsight, and others receive more demand.
1.2.2. Unproductive Habits will be adjusted and fixed during this period
1.3. Consumption of on-demand entertainment will increase
1.3.1. Companies such as Netflix, Hulu, and Disney+ will receive more subscriptions.
1.4. People will use work form home solutions more extinsively.
1.4.1. Companies such as Slack, Microsoft Teams, Zoom, Weber, will receive more subscriptions.
1.5. Some people are spending time alone under quarantine.
1.5.1. Cases of loneliness, anxiety, and depression will be on the rise.
1.5.1.1. Mental health services. Will be in greater demand.
1.6. Less people are commenting to work
1.6.1. Alternative transportations such as Uber and Bird rides are losing revenues
1.6.2. Consumption of hydrocarbons have decreased significantly.
1.6.2.1. Greenhouse gas emissions have declined
2. New Paradigms will emerge in a post out break world.
2.1. A renowned urgency to combat climate change
2.1.1. Investors will refocus on ESG.
2.1.2. A future generation of founders will build companies with the eye of being profitable.
2.1.2.1. Transition to solar energy will accelerate
2.1.2.2. Eco-friendly building practices are going to be the new normal.
2.2. Newer sanitation and public health regulations will emerge.
2.2.1. Janitorial duties wil multiply
2.3. Workers compensation laws will be changed to protect employees from
2.4. Convential monetary systems are no longer infallible
2.4.1. Cryptocurrency will be used more a medium of exchanging goods and services.
3. Major Events in 2020 that were disrupted by the out break
3.1. The implementation of the RCEP among SEA countries will be delayed.
3.2. Tokyo 2020 olympics have been pushed to 2021.
3.3. All major sporting leagues suspended
3.4. UAE mission to mars still on schedule despite cove-19 outbreak
3.5. North and Central America are expecting a violent tropical season with 3-4 hurricanes.
3.6. The U.S. will have to figure out a way to enable secure virtual voting for its upcoming 2020 elections.
3.7. The U.S. will have to figure out a way to enable secure virtual voting for its upcoming 2020 elections.
4. The lockdown measures, as mentioned, has significantly negatively impacted on-site entertainment venues such as Cinemas, Night Entertainment, Social outlets, and Restaurants etc.
4.1. Consolidation of the industry and survival of the fittest
4.2. Low-skilled workers, on zero hour contracts, in those industries will face temporary unemployment in the short run.
4.3. Reduced orders from restaurants may lead to a temporary surplus in livestock and produce.
5. Sector view
5.1. Aviation Sector
5.1.1. Governments have ordered to suspend airflights with varying decrees of severity
5.1.1.1. Airline companies will incur ope while missing out on revenues
5.1.1.1.1. Airlines may resort to downsize staff whether fully or partially.
5.1.1.2. Industries related to travel such as hospitality and tourism will receive less business.
5.2. Education Sector
5.2.1. Educational institutions will be halted for either a mid- to long period of time.
5.2.1.1. The incremental supply of a freshly educated labor force in the economy will be significantly be delayed.
5.2.2. Academic performance for the year of 2020 will be materially different than prior years.
5.2.2.1. Demand for alternative education services may become more desirable.
5.3. Finance Sector
5.3.1. Fintech
5.3.1.1. Commercial transactions are less likely to be through cash and more likely through contactless credit cards and other no touch technologies.
5.3.1.1.1. Potential wider use of ApplePay, AndriodPay, WeChatPay etc internationally specifically in Emerging Markets
5.3.1.2. Online banking and Branchless Banks (online banks such as Monzo and Revolut etc) could heavily benefit from the crisis
5.3.2. Debt Market
5.4. Entertainment Sector
5.5. Healthcare Sector
5.5.1. Demand for sanitary consumer products will increase.
5.5.1.1. UV radiating robots will be used more often to sanitize contaminated areas from a distance.
5.5.2. Public touchscreens will disappear from banks, airports, and certain restaurants.
5.5.2.1. Touchscreen producing companies could be replaced by others than do use gesture control rather than touch.
5.5.3. Self cleaning toilets may become popular for for public and private facilities.
5.5.4. Demand for testing and treating products will increase in the short to medium term.
5.5.4.1. Healthcare services companies that offer testing and therapy will see greater revenues.
5.5.4.2. Incidents of Medical Piracy Are On The Rise
5.5.4.2.1. Countries and organizations are stealing contracts from shoppers of medical supplies.
5.5.4.3. Ventilators are in short supply. Increased demand has led to price gouging, and competition for such devices.
6. Geographic/Country view
6.1. China
6.1.1. Production is stalled in many of the factories in China.
6.1.1.1. There will a shortage of finished goods and supply chain bottlenecks for large multinational consumer product corporations.
6.1.1.1.1. Supply chain bottleneck could potentially de-internationalise supply chains
6.1.1.2. Demand for raw material of finished goods produced in China will go down.
6.1.1.2.1. Chinese imports of raw materials will be in decline
6.2. United States
6.2.1. Congress approves 2020 CARES bill. Signed into law by president. Providing a stimulus package of $2.0 trillion.
6.2.1.1. $ 153 billion will be dedicated to public health.
6.2.1.2. $ 43.7 billion will be dedicated to student loans and other
6.2.1.3. $ 560 billion will be dedicated to individuals.
6.2.1.3.1. $ 300 billion will be in direct cash payments
6.2.1.3.2. $ 260 billion will be in extra unemployment payments.
6.2.1.4. $ 500 billion will be dedicated to large corporations.
6.2.1.4.1. $ 17 billion will be towards national security.
6.2.1.4.2. $58 billion will be towards airlines.
6.2.1.4.3. $ 425 billion in other expenses.
6.2.1.4.4. $ 377 billion towards smalll businesses.
6.2.1.4.5. $ 339.8 billion towards local and state governments.
6.2.1.4.6. $26 billion in a safety net
6.3. Italy
6.3.1. The Italian Tourism sector will suffer massive stagnation but will ultimately recover.
6.3.2. Italians, who are the second largest tourist group in Oman, will stop arriving in Oman to visit.
6.3.3. Unemployment in Italy will rise due to the lockdown slowing down commercial activities.
6.3.4. A significant number of deaths are from the elderly.
6.3.4.1. Deaths in Italy will lead to more inheritance and potentially orphan companies.
6.3.4.2. Consumer products dedicated to the elderly segment of the population will be in decline.
6.3.4.3. Deaths in Italy will releive burden on pension funds.