1. Will Bosnia and Herzegovina be stable or unstable over the next two years? 2. How will the sta...

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1. Will Bosnia and Herzegovina be stable or unstable over the next two years? 2. How will the stability or instability manifest itself? by Mind Map: 1. Will Bosnia and Herzegovina be stable or unstable over the next two years? 2. How will the stability or instability manifest itself?

1. 1. Political

1.1. Type of Government: Federal Democratic Republic

1.1.1. Dayton Peace Agreement

1.1.1.1. Signed on 14 December, 1995

1.1.1.2. Established the Constitution and the Structure of Bosnia and Herzegovina

1.1.2. High Representative:Valentin Inzko

1.1.3. Parliamentary Assembly

1.1.3.1. House of People: 15 Members

1.1.3.2. House of Representatives: 42 Members

1.1.4. Prime Minister: Denis Zvizdić

1.1.5. Presidency

1.1.5.1. Current Chairman: Dragan Čović (Croats)

1.1.5.2. Bakir Izetbegović (Bosniaks)

1.1.5.3. Mladen Ivanić (Serbs)

1.1.6. Constitutional Court: 9 members

1.1.7. State Court

1.2. Entities

1.2.1. Republika Srpksa

1.2.1.1. President: Milorad Dodik

1.2.1.2. Prime Minister: Željka Cvijanović

1.2.1.3. Area: 9,740 square miles

1.2.1.4. Capital: Banja Luka; Sarajevo

1.2.2. Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina

1.2.2.1. President: Marinko Čavara

1.2.2.2. Prime Minister: Fadil Novalić

1.2.2.3. 10,081 square miles

1.2.2.4. Capital: Sarajevo

1.2.3. Brcko District

1.3. Current Political Issues

1.3.1. Republika Srpska

1.3.1.1. President Milorad Dodik plans for an independence referendum for Republika Srpska in 2018.

1.3.1.2. The Constitutional Court declared the Republika Srpska national holiday as unconstitutional, which has caused the Serbs and Croats to demand the removal of foreign judges.

1.3.1.3. Milorad Dodik has threatened to remove all Serb officials from state institutions if the foreign judges are not removed from the Constitutional Court within 120 days.

1.3.1.4. The U.S. and UN have spoken out against the referendum Republika Srpksa has planned for 2018.

1.3.1.5. The Prime Minister and Financial Minister of Republika Srpska have been accused of taking out a loan illegally and without the National Assembly approval in October 2015.

1.3.2. European Union

1.3.2.1. 2015 EU Commission report stated that: “[Bosnia and Herzegovina] is back on the reform track and has started to address the outstanding priorities on its EU accession path"...but also states that improvements are needed in the courts and the government institutions of the state.

1.3.2.2. In November 2015, Denis Zvizdić stated that Bosnia and Herzegovina is expected to turn in EU application as early as February 2015.

1.3.3. Constant Political divides between Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats

1.3.4. NATO

1.3.4.1. NATO has expressed interest in Bosnia and Herzegovina joining; however, Republika Srpska is uninterested.

1.4. Corruption

1.4.1. Transparency International 2014 Ranking: 80/175

1.4.2. Transparency International 2014 Score: 39/100

1.4.3. 2015 EU Commission report stated that the institutional framework is currently "weak and inadequate" and needs to improve in order to lessen corruption and organized crime.

1.5. Foreign Policy's 2015 Fragile States Index Rank: 78

2. 2. Economic

2.1. Trade

2.1.1. GDP: $18.34 Billion (World Bank, 2014)

2.1.2. Top Trade Partners (Global Edge, 2015)

2.1.2.1. Croatia

2.1.2.2. Germany

2.1.2.3. Italy

2.1.3. Trade with the U.S. ((U.S. Census Bureau, 2015)

2.1.3.1. Imports (from the U.S.): $9.7 Million

2.1.3.2. Exports (to the U.S.): $41 Million

2.1.4. Exports

2.1.4.1. Top Exported Goods (Global Edge, 2015)

2.1.4.1.1. Furniture

2.1.4.1.2. Oil

2.1.4.1.3. Mineral Fuels

2.1.4.2. Exports makeup about 30% of GDP

2.2. Economic Data

2.2.1. World Bank Doing Business 2015 Rank: 107

2.2.2. GNI Per Capita: $4,780 (World Bank, 2014)

2.2.3. Income Category: Upper Middle Income (World Bank)

2.2.4. Unemployment, youth total (% of total labor forces ages 15-24): 60.4% (World Bank, 2013)

2.2.5. Poverty Rate: 17.9% (World Bank, 2011)

2.2.6. Currency: Bosnia and Herzegovina Convertible Mark (BAM)

2.2.6.1. 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina Convertible Mark = .56 U.S. Dollars

2.2.7. According to the World Bank's South East Europe Regular Economic Report, the economic growth is expected to increase for the rest of 2015

2.2.7.1. The report, however, speaks of youth unemployment problems within the region, including BiH.

2.3. Political Economy

2.3.1. Increase in Federation of BiH 2016 budget to 2.5 Billion

2.3.2. Bosnia and Herzegovina relies on financial help from other states and organizations.

2.3.2.1. U.S. Loan of $300 Million

3. 6. Geography

3.1. Borders

3.1.1. Bordering States

3.1.1.1. Croatia

3.1.1.2. Montenegro

3.1.1.3. Serbia

3.1.2. Bordering Bodies of Water

3.1.2.1. Adriatic Sea

3.1.3. Land within Bosnia and Herzegovina divided between the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Brcko District, and Republika Srpska.

3.2. Region: Europe

3.3. Capital: Sarajevo

3.4. Total Area: 19,741 Square Miles

3.4.1. Highest Point: 2,388 Meters, Maglić Mountain

3.4.2. Lowest Point: Below sea-level, Adriatic Sea

3.5. Important Locations

3.5.1. Airports

3.5.1.1. Banja Luka International Airport

3.5.1.2. Mostar International Airport

3.5.1.3. Sarajevo International Airport

3.5.1.4. Tuzla International Airport

3.5.2. Military Air Bases

3.5.2.1. Sarajevo Military Airport

3.5.2.2. Tuzla Air Base

3.5.2.3. Željava Air Base

3.5.3. Army Bases

3.5.3.1. Banja Luka

3.5.3.2. Čapljina

3.5.3.3. Sarajevo

3.5.3.4. Tuzla

4. 5. Social

4.1. Demographics

4.1.1. Population: 3.8 Million (World Bank, 2014)

4.1.2. Ethnicity

4.1.2.1. Bosniak (48%)

4.1.2.2. Serb (37.1%)

4.1.2.3. Croat (14.3%)

4.1.2.4. Other (.6%)

4.1.2.5. Ethnic Issues

4.1.2.5.1. Bosnian War (1992-1945)

4.1.3. Official Languages

4.1.3.1. Bosnian

4.1.3.2. Serbian

4.1.3.3. Croatian

4.1.4. Religion

4.1.4.1. Muslim (40%)

4.1.4.2. Orthodox (31%)

4.1.4.3. Roman Catholic (15%)

4.1.4.4. Other (14%)

4.2. Health

4.2.1. Life Expectancy: 76.2 years (Unicef, 2012)

4.2.2. Infant Mortality Rate: 6 (Unicef, 2012)

4.3. Education

4.3.1. Adult Literacy Rate: 98% (Unicef, 2012)

4.4. Media

4.4.1. Reporters Without Borders' 2013 Press Freedom Index Rank: 68

4.5. Technology

4.5.1. Ratio of mobile telephone subscriptions to fixed telephone subscriptions: 91.2 to 23.2 (ITU)

4.5.2. Internet Usage: 69.9% of total population (ITU)

5. 3. International Relations

5.1. Entry into the European Union

5.1.1. Application has been continuously pushed back

5.1.1.1. Denis Zvizdić has announced that Bosnia and Herzegovina will apply for EU as early as February 2016.

5.1.2. Milorad Dodik has spoken out against joining the EU.

5.1.3. Valentin Inzko has warned the UN security council that Republika Srpska's planned independence referendum is a serious problem for the state's peace.

5.1.4. Valentin Inzko has warned Republika Srpska that it must abide by the rulings of the Constitutional Court. If it does not, it is going against the Dayton Agreement and is not following the path to join the EU.

5.2. Dayton Peace Agreement

5.2.1. Created ties with the U.S.

5.2.2. Economic problems and political issues are beginning to override the success of the Dayton Peace Accord.

5.3. Member of Key International Organizations

5.3.1. United Nations

5.3.2. Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council

5.3.3. Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe

5.3.4. International Monetary Fund

5.3.5. World Bank

5.4. Relations

5.4.1. Denis Zvizdić spent 4 days in China, resulting in plans to create stronger ties with China in regards to economics, tourism, agriculture.

5.4.2. Ambassador Matthew Rycroft of the UK Mission has stated that the whole UN Security Council is fully supportive of Bosnia entering into the EU and NATO.

5.4.3. Bosnia and Serbia have signed several agreements and plan on closer ties between the two states.

5.4.3.1. Aleksandar Vucic has visited Srebrenica, the site of the Bosnian Serb massacre of 1995, and promised to donate money to rebuild the city.

5.4.4. Igor Crnadak, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of B&H, had a very eventful first day of the Ministerial Summit of the OSCE in Belgrade. One of the bilateral meeting was held with Sergey Lavrov, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, and according to Crnadak, it was very useful, and they concluded together that B&H and Russia are in friendly relationship.

6. Aubrey Zupancic - Bosnia and Herzegovina [email protected] - INTL 510 - 12 December, 2015

7. KEY:

7.1. Highly Important

7.2. Priority Ranking: 1=High Priority; 6=Low Priority

8. 4. Security

8.1. The Ministry of Security: Prime Minister Dragan Mektić

8.1.1. SIPA (State Investigation and Protective Agency)

8.1.1.1. Perica Stanić has been appointed the new director of SIPA on 5 November, 2015.

8.1.2. OSA (Intelligence and Security-Safety Agency of Bosnia and Herzegovina)

8.2. Terrorism

8.2.1. Dragan Čović's stance against terrorism at UN Convention

8.2.2. The Security Ministry of Bosnia and Herzegovina has been investigating a pro-Isis website, Vijesti Ummeta, that is translated into Bosnian.

8.2.2.1. OSCE conference in Sarajevo on 27 November, 2015 discussed addressed plan to better understand how violence, extremism, and radicalization are initiated through the internet.

8.2.3. The Ministry of Security has given France requested information on the Paris terrorist attacks.

8.2.3.1. Dragan Mektić attended a series of meetings in France on the topics of fighting extremism and terrorism.

8.2.4. On 18 November, 2015, two soldiers of the Armed Forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina were shot and killed by Enes Omerovic in Rajlovac. Another suspect has been arrested.

8.3. Security Planning

8.3.1. Dragan Čović and Bakir Izetbegović stated that the security situation in B&H is under the supervision of state institutions and that there is no need nor they would allow any supervision from the outside.

8.3.1.1. Dragan Mektić announced on 2 December, 2015 that a new operational group will be set up to ensure that police, intelligence and security agencies in Bosnia and Herzegovina work together and share information for the state's anti-terrorism drive. .zotero://attachment/987/