1. Section 1: Inescapable Complexity (tell em what you're going to tell em)
1.1. need a quote about embracing something new, new journey
1.2. We rush away from things that frighten us
1.2.1. approach/avoidance
1.2.1.1. simplicity is sexy
1.2.1.1.1. but sometimes we have to embrace complexity to find simplicity
1.2.1.2. length of a political soundbite
1.3. Survey Stats on Complexity
1.4. Layman's Definition of Complexity
1.4.1. complex vs simple vs complicated vs chaos
1.4.1.1. car example: foot on pedal (simple), replacing components (complicated), driving to work (complex), driving to work without roads (chaotic)
1.4.1.2. Very understandable examples
1.4.1.3. complex adaptive systems
1.4.1.3.1. uncertainty of conditions, uncertainty of outcomes, uncertainty of players in the space, and uncertainty of what our products really mean (What business are we in??)) uncertainty also means lack of causality
1.4.1.4. Cynefin
1.4.1.5. complex challenges are often what require the most leadership
1.4.1.5.1. yet, you can almost measure how complex a problem is by how many people are on the conf call or in the meeting and how long it takes to make a decision, how unwilling someone is to make a decision
1.4.1.5.2. The real failure of leadership comes when problems in the complex domain are given simple solutions - pepper list of simple fixes that have failed
1.4.2. 3 contexts of complexity we'll focus on
1.4.2.1. inward
1.4.2.2. outward
1.4.2.3. beyond
1.5. Companies that already pay attention to complexity (give short introductions)
1.5.1. Netflix - employees, products
1.5.2. IBM
1.5.3. Steelcase?
1.5.4. C-Level Job for Everyone
1.6. Setup the purpose of the book
1.6.1. Reduce/resist internal complexity
1.6.2. Embrace external complexity and uncertainty
1.6.3. Seek partners to confront the most complex problems
1.7. What's to be gained? (what do you get from this book?)
1.7.1. an adaptive organization
1.7.2. a more responsive brand
2. Section 2: Minimizing Internal Complexity
2.1. Resisting/Reducing Complexity
2.1.1. Ray Ozzie quote
2.1.2. the 3/2 rule of productivity
2.1.3. Accidental VS Essential Complexity
2.1.4. CHART: the marginal return on complexity
2.2. The Learning Organization
2.2.1. Double loop learning
2.2.2. BUILDING A LEARNING DISCIPLINE
2.2.2.1. Holland's Bucket Brigade algorithm applied to an organization (rewarding and reinforcing successful pathways)
2.2.2.2. Compare - Becoming a Learning Organization - Peter Senge
2.2.2.3. What are some extreme examples of companies trying to retain knowledge?
2.2.2.3.1. not a company, but interesting maybe - http://hoffman.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/09/24/one_step_ahead_of_the_future
2.2.2.3.2. http://rossdawsonblog.com/weblog/archives/2011/04/what-is-the-future-of-the-learning-development-department.html
2.2.2.4. ENSURING THAT FEEDBACK LOOPS EXIST AND ARE WORKING
2.2.2.4.1. taking a lesson from system design, often times organizational failure is due to a missing or misaligned feedback loop
2.2.2.4.2. ? I Paid a Bribe - http://www.ipaidabribe.com/node/77
2.2.2.4.3. Tuberculosis in India - http://kottke.org/10/11/preventing-tuberculosis-deaths-in-india
2.2.2.4.4. work for General Mills
2.3. The Adaptive Organization
2.3.1. Becoming Mission and Purpose focused
2.3.1.1. talk about corporations with purpose (umair)
2.3.1.2. Vision is the controlling mechanism in an adaptive organization
2.3.1.2.1. Harmonizing your goals
2.3.1.3. BALANCING COMPETITION & COOPERATION
2.3.1.3.1. I really think this point needs to be made, from an internal and external POV (I think we've overvalued competition and have forgotten cooperation), but I want to explore it a bit further
2.3.2. Cellular Organization Theory
2.3.2.1. "loose-tight" controls
2.3.3. MAKING TIME FOR MUTATION
2.3.3.1. Google's 20% time, 3M's 15% time
2.3.3.2. when is this even more critical? how do you manage this process?
2.3.3.2.1. scale up and down depending on opportunities
2.3.4. Adaptability
2.3.4.1. symbiogenesis
2.3.4.2. fostering crossover and mutation (how do you institutionalize this?)
2.3.4.3. Generalization, Specialization, Flexibility / Exploitation vs Exploration (Complex. of Cooperation, p 25); “evolutionary commitments can be irreversible” – see also “topics amenable to simulation”
2.3.4.4. Exaption - http://www.cognitive-edge.com/blogs/dave/2011/01/a_grain_of_sand_innovation_dif.php#more
2.3.5. BALANCING SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM LEVERS
2.3.5.1. Most organizational decisions are predicated on short term conditions, how do you balance this? (R&D?)
2.4. focusing complexity only to realize efficiency will result in the same outcome as low income housing
3. Introduction
3.1. Arab spring
3.1.1. the world is more connected, but WHAT DOES CONNECTION MEAN?
3.1.1.1. Quote from complex adaptive systems, complexity arises when the connections matter
4. Section 3: Navigating External Complexity
4.1. STUDYING SYSTEMS
4.1.1. STUDY THE SYSTEM BEFORE LAUNCHING A SOLUTION
4.1.1.1. to mitigate the failure of simple fixes, to be more aware of the consequences (but always keep a keen eye for uninitiated consequences)
4.1.1.2. BECOME A STUDENT OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS
4.1.1.2.1. A curiosity for how the world *actually* works is priceless
4.1.1.2.2. 8 fold path to analyzing systems
4.1.2. EXPOSE YOUR MENTAL MODELS
4.1.2.1. SUBSECTION: visualizing complexity, or ways such as visualisation that allow us to parse our assumptions about complex systems, and to analyze the relationships of elements within those systems
4.1.2.1.1. Thoughts on difficulties - http://blog.pegasuscom.com/Leverage-Points-Blog/bid/54835/Are-Systems-Thinking-Tools-Too-Difficult-for-Adults-to-Learn
4.1.2.1.2. Systems thinking tools should be used not to map reality, but to map our assumptions about reality
4.1.2.2. PRACTICE YOUR ABDUCTIVE REASONING SKILLS
4.1.2.2.1. become hypothesis-lead
4.1.2.3. Studying the connections between elements (who does this, beyond the war in afghanistan)
4.2. POKING THE ANTHILL
4.2.1. there's a great paper that kicks off this topic, FORESIGHT, COMPLEXITY AND STRATEGY by David Lane and Robert Maxfield - maybe start there to see what's been built on those ideas (what papers cite it)
4.2.2. APPROACH REAL-TIME RESPONSIVENESS TO CULTURE
4.2.2.1. this very much defines the book as an organizational management book, is that ok?
4.2.2.1.1. PC: It's okay by me. Is it okay with you? :)
4.2.3. PLAN FOR FAILURE
4.2.3.1. so you can afford to fail
4.2.3.2. from fail-safe to safe-fail (credit: Dave Snowden)
4.2.3.3. Philippines turns to Complexity Science for disaster preparedness (find more like this) - http://aidontheedge.info/2011/03/15/philippines-turns-to-complexity-science-to-strengthen-disaster-preparedness/
4.2.3.4. Oil Drilling (germane?) - http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/28/opinion/28brooks.html?_r=2
4.2.4. MAKING SMALL BETS
4.2.4.1. this book is on its way, let me know if you find anything else worth citing
4.3. Designing for Networks
4.3.1. REINFORCE PATHWAYS THAT EXTEND BEYOND YOUR OWN NETWORKS
4.3.1.1. the heart and soul of social media marketing
4.3.1.2. but does this node belong in the organizational management section?
4.3.1.3. lead users - erik von hippel (sp?)
4.3.2. BUILDING ECOSYSTEMS
4.3.2.1. Find app store (apple, google, blackberry, etc) comparisons that show growth over time, looking to use it as proof that increasing returns still hold true. Matthew effect.
4.3.2.2. From ecology, we know that a more densely connected food web is often more stable. (credit: Eric Berlow - can we dig up more on this?)
4.3.2.2.1. germane? - clustered networks spread behavior best - http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/09/network-behavior-spread/
4.3.2.3. look into creating ecologies (Ecosystems, e.g. the App store)
4.3.2.3.1. look into "linking and leveraging"
4.3.3. DESIGNING FOR NETWORK EFFECTS
4.3.3.1. Look into Brian Arthur's work into increasing returns
4.3.3.2. look into latest research on freemium pricing models
4.3.3.2.1. Freemium Model
4.4. FOSTER GENERATIVE RELATIONSHIPS
4.4.1. loose partnerships (Nike+ is the advertising example) - can you help me think of/find more?
4.4.2. in nature we call this symbiogenesis
4.4.2.1. http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/02/complexity-theo/
4.4.3. STAR model - http://www.change-ability.ca/Exploring_Generative_Relationships.html